Special Marine Warning 113, NWS Key West, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
402 PM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...
SHOWERS HAVE BEEN DRIFTING WESTWARD ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS WATERS
THIS AFTERNOON AS WE TRANSITION TO A MORE MOISTURE AND UNSTABLE
ENVIRONMENT. THIS IN PART TO THE IMPENDING APPROACH OF WHAT IT WAS
TROPICAL STORM ERIKA...NOW DEGENERATED TO AN ACTIVE TROPICAL WAVE.
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT AND
SUNDAY...WITH INCREASING WINDS AND WAVES.

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)...CONDITIONS WILL START
TO DETERIORATE TONIGHT AS SQUALLY WEATHER START REACHING THE FLORIDA
KEYS WATERS. THESE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY AN INCREASE OF WINDS AND
WAVES...ESPECIALLY NEAR THUNDERSTORMS AND SQUALLY WEATHER. HEAVY
RAINFALL WITH AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES...LOCALLY HIGHER...WILL BE
OBSERVED ALONG THE FLORIDA KEYS THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.
THEREFORE...URBAN FLOODING IN AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE ARE LIKELY TO
OCCUR.

.LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...FROM THE 12Z GFS RUN...THIS
TROPICAL WAVE WILL SPEED UP WEST-NORTHWEST ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS
COASTAL WATERS TOMORROW SUNDAY. WINDS WILL THEN SUBSIDE TO NEAR 15
KNOTS STARTING SUNDAY NIGHT AS THIS WAVE MOVES TOWARD THE NORTHEAST
GULF OF MEXICO...DECREASING TO BELOW 10 KNOTS FROM WEDNESDAY ON. AT
THE SAME TIME...A HIGH PRESSURE AREA OVER THE ATLANTIC WILL SHIFT
WESTWARD...LOCATING ITSELF OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES...KEEPING
WINDS FROM THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REST OF WEEK. A
WET...MORE NORMAL PATTERN FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR IS EXPECTED TO
ALSO STAY IN PLACE THIS WEEK. THEREFORE...POPS HAVE BEEN BUMP UP
REFLECTING A MORE CLIMO APPROACH BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...A VIGOROUS TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. PERIODS OF FRESH TO
STRONG BREEZES ARE LIKELY...ALONG WITH SQUALLY WEATHER. WINDS AND
SEAS WILL BE LOCALLY HIGHER IN AND NEAR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE AREA WILL EXPAND TO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA IN WAKE
OF THE TROPICAL WAVE ON MONDAY...AND PERSIST THERE THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...THROUGH 30/18Z...PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT
BOTH EYW AND MTH. HOWEVER...AN APPROACHING STRONG TROPICAL WAVE WILL
LEAD TO INCREASING FAST-MOVING SHOWERS...WITH SOME SQUALLS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL. MULTIPLE EPISODES OF INSTRUMENT METEOROLOGICAL
CONDITIONS WILL BE INCREASINGLY LIKELY AFTER 30/00Z...ASSOCIATED WITH
NUMEROUS SQUALLS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME PRODUCING HEAVY TO EXTREME
PRECIPITATION AND WINDS GUSTING LOCALLY 20-30 KNOTS.

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

PUBLIC/MARINE.........KN
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....KASPER
DATA COLLECTION.......CHESSER

VISIT US ON THE WEB AT WEATHER.GOV/KEY

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WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSKEYWEST
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