Coastal Flood Statement 11, NWS Key West, FL

075 
WHUS42 KKEY 211802
CFWKEY

COASTAL HAZARD MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
202 PM EDT WED OCT 21 2015

FLZ076-220300-
/O.EXT.KKEY.CF.S.0011.000000T0000Z-151022T0300Z/
MONROE UPPER KEYS-
202 PM EDT WED OCT 21 2015

...MINOR COASTAL FLOODING PERSISTS IN THE UPPER KEYS...

* COASTAL FLOODING...COASTAL FLOODING WILL PERSIST IN SOME BAYSIDE OF
  COMMUNITIES OF THE UPPER KEYS TONIGHT. WATER LEVELS WILL AVERAGE
  AROUND ONE FOOT ABOVE PREDICTED TIDES.

* TIMING...OBSERVED WATER LEVELS WILL BE HIGHEST DURING TIMES OF HIGH
  TIDE TONIGHT. COASTAL FLOODING MAY PERSIST IN SOME BAYSIDE
  COMMUNITIES OF THE UPPER KEYS INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

* IMPACTS...THE PRIMARY HAZARD WILL BE SALTWATER FLOODING OF THE
  LOWEST ELEVATION STREETS. SOME STORM DRAINS WILL OVERFLOW...AND
  SOME DOCKS AND SEAWALLS WILL BE OVER-TOPPED.

&&

$$
BS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
336 AM EDT WED OCT 21 2015

.DISCUSSION...
VERY LIGHT SHOWERS ARE MOVING WESTWARD IN THE ATLANTIC WATERS BEYOND
OUR SERVICE AREA...BASICALLY JUST OFF THE CUBAN COAST. MUCH WEAKER
ECHOES ON KBYX RADAR ARE SKIRTING THE MIDDLE AND UPPER KEYS AT THIS
MOMENT. THERE MAY NOT EVEN BE ANYTHING PRECIPITATING TO GROUND LEVEL
WITH THESE ECHOES. OTHERWISE...WINDS REMAIN RATHER STRONG ACROSS THE
LOCAL AREA. UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES...TEMPERATURES ALONG THE ISLAND
CHAIN ARE IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S.

LARGE HIGH SURFACE PRESSURE CURRENTLY STRETCHED ACROSS THE MID
ATLANTIC AND SOUTHEAST COAST WILL BE THE MAIN SYNOPTIC FEATURE THIS
FORECAST. ALTHOUGH THE CENTER OF THIS LARGE CELL WILL EXTEND INTO
THE WESTERN NORTH ATLANTIC TODAY AND TONIGHT...IT WILL CONTINUE TO EXTEND
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND NORTHERN FLORIDA. WITH LINGERING
BROAD LOWER PRESSURE TO OUR SOUTH...THE GRADIENT WILL SUPPORT
INTIALLY FRESH/STRONG NORTHEAST TO EAST BREEZES. THESE WINDS WILL
DIMINISH ONLY SLOWLY AND ONLY MINIMALLY LATER THIS WEEK AND INTO THE
WEEKEND THANKS TO THE HIGH PRESSURE BEING REINFORCED FROM THE NORTH.
KEPT THE PROBABILITY OF MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION OUT OF THE FIRST
PERIOD...BUT MAY NEED TO PUT IN A MINIMAL POP BASED ON RADAR TRENDS
RIGHT BEFORE ISSUANCE TIME. ANY WEAK ECHOES WOULD NOT AMOUNT TO MUCH
IF AT ALL IN REGARDS TO ACCUMULATION EARLY THIS MORNING. A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL BE MAINTAINED FROM TONIGHT THROUGH THE BALANCE
OF THE FORECAST. SHALLOW FAST-PACED SHOWERS ARE ABOUT THE BEST
PROBABILITY FOR RADAR ECHOES THROUGH THAT ENTIRE TIME THANKS TO DRIER
AIR JUST ABOVE A SHALLOW AND MODERATELY MOIST LOW LEVEL. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE AT OR WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF SEASONAL AVERAGE THROUGH THE
ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE MAINTAINED INITIALLY ACROSS ALL WATERS
SURROUNDING THE FLORIDA KEYS. WINDS MAY DIMINISH JUST ENOUGH TO PARE
OUT THE BAY AND POSSIBLY NEARSHORE GULF WATERS LATER TODAY. WILL
LEAVE THAT TO THE NEXT SHIFT TO MONITOR. BUT RECREATIONAL BOATERS
SHOULD NOT EXPECT PLEASANT CONDITIONS ANYWHERE SURROUNDING THE
FLORIDA KEYS FOR AT LEAST SEVERAL DAYS THANKS TO PERSISTENT AND
REINFORCED HIGHER PRESSURE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT BOTH THE KEY WEST AND MARATHON
INTERNATIONAL TERMINALS THROUGH AT LEAST 22/06Z. DUE TO SPEED
CONVERGENCE IN THE PEAK AND LULLS OF THE WINDS...EXPECT THE
POTENTIAL FOR VERY BRIEF ENCOUNTERS WITH LIGHT RAIN REDUCING
VISIBILITIES TO AROUND 3 MILES.

&&

.CLIMATE...
ON THIS DATE IN KEYS WEATHER HISTORY...1883...8.23
INCHES OF RAIN FELL ON KEY WEST. THIS SET THE DAILY RECORD FOR
RAINFALL IN KEY WEST ON OCTOBER 21 WHICH STANDS 132 YEARS LATER.
RAINFALL RECORDS FOR KEY WEST DATE BACK TO 1871.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KEY WEST  84  77  85  77 / -  10 10 20
MARATHON  85  77  85  77 / -  10 10 20

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY GMZ031>035-042>044-052>055-072>075.

&&

PUBLIC/MARINE.........04
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....BWC
DATA COLLECTION.......FLING

VISIT US ON THE WEB AT WEATHER.GOV/KEY

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT...

WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSKEYWEST
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSKEYWEST

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
423 AM EDT WED OCT 21 2015

FLZ076>078-GMZ031>035-042>044-052>055-072>075-221000-
MONROE UPPER KEYS-MONROE MIDDLE KEYS-MONROE LOWER KEYS-
FLORIDA BAY INCLUDING BLACKWATER SOUND, BUTTONWOOD SOUND, AND
BARNES SOUND-
BAYSIDE AND GULFSIDE FROM CRAIG KEY TO WEST END OF SEVEN MILE
BRIDGE-
GULF WATERS FROM EAST CAPE SABLE TO CHOKOLOSKEE 20 TO 60 NM OUT
AND BEYOND 5 FATHOMS-
GULF OF MEXICO INCLUDING DRY TORTUGAS AND REBECCA SHOAL CHANNEL-
GULF OF MEXICO FROM WEST END OF SEVEN MILE BRIDGE TO HALFMOON
SHOAL OUT TO 5 FATHOMS-
HAWK CHANNEL FROM OCEAN REEF TO CRAIG KEY OUT TO THE REEF-
HAWK CHANNEL FROM CRAIG KEY TO WEST END OF SEVEN MILE BRIDGE OUT
TO THE REEF-
HAWK CHANNEL FROM WEST END OF SEVEN MILE BRIDGE TO HALFMOON SHOAL
OUT TO THE REEF-
STRAITS OF FLORIDA FROM OCEAN REEF TO CRAIG KEY OUT 20 NM-
STRAITS OF FLORIDA FROM CRAIG KEY TO WEST END OF SEVEN MILE
BRIDGE OUT 20 NM-
STRAITS OF FLORIDA FROM WEST END OF SEVEN MILE BRIDGE TO SOUTH OF
HALFMOON SHOAL OUT 20 NM-
STRAITS OF FLORIDA FROM HALFMOON SHOAL TO 20 NM WEST OF DRY
TORTUGAS OUT 20 NM-
STRAITS OF FLORIDA FROM OCEAN REEF TO CRAIG KEY 20 TO 60 NM OUT-
STRAITS OF FLORIDA FROM CRAIG KEY TO WEST END OF SEVEN MILE
BRIDGE 20 TO 60 NM OUT-
STRAITS OF FLORIDA FROM WEST END OF SEVEN MILE BRIDGE TO SOUTH OF
HALFMOON SHOAL 20 TO 60 NM OUT-
STRAITS OF FLORIDA FROM HALFMOON SHOAL TO 20 NM WEST OF DRY
TORTUGAS 20 TO 60 NM OUT-
423 AM EDT WED OCT 21 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS AND
ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL KEYS COASTAL WATERS THIS
MORNING DUE TO NORTHEAST TO EAST SURFACE WINDS OF 20 TO 25
KNOTS AND GUSTY. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS LIKELY ACROSS THE OFFSHORE
GULF WATERS...HAWK CHANNEL...AND THE FLORIDA STRAITS THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS LIKELY ACROSS THE FLORIDA STRAITS EARLY
TONIGHT DUE WINDS AROUND 20 KNOTS...BEFORE DIMINISHING A FEW KNOTS.

COASTAL FLOODING WILL PERSIST IN SOME BAYSIDE COMMUNITIES OF THE
UPPER KEYS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

COASTAL FLOODING MAY PERSIST IN SOME BAYSIDE COMMUNITIES OF THE UPPER
KEYS INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR THE OFFSHORE GULF AND
ATLANTIC WATERS LATER THIS WEEK AND EARLY IN THE WEEKEND.

OTHERWISE...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME FOR
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.