Red Flag Warning 17, NWS JSJ

274 
WWCA82 TJSJ 091717 AAA
RFWSJU

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
117 PM AST WED SEP 9 2015

...BREEZY AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES EXPECTED OVER THE SOUTH
CENTRAL COASTAL PLAINS OF PUERTO RICO...

PRZ014-092200-
/O.CON.TJSJ.FW.W.0017.000000T0000Z-150909T2200Z/
SOUTH CENTRAL COASTAL PLAINS-
117 PM AST WED SEP 9 2015

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED A RED FLAG
WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM AST THIS EVENING. 

* AFFECTED AREA...FIRE WEATHER ZONE 014.

* WIND...AROUND 20 MPH WITH GUST UP TO 30 MPH.

* HUMIDITY...AROUND 40 TO 45 PERCENT.

* THUNDERSTORMS...NOT FORECAST FOR THIS AREA.

* HIGHEST THREAT...IN AND AROUND CAMP SANTIAGO.

* IMPACTS...ANY FIRES THAT DEVELOP WILL LIKELY SPREAD RAPIDLY. 
  OUTDOOR BURNING IS NOT RECOMMENDED.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE EITHER OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL SHORTLY. A COMBINATION OF
STRONG WINDS...LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY...AND WARM TEMPERATURES WILL
CREATE EXPLOSIVE FIRE GROWTH POTENTIAL.

&&

$$

141 
WWCA82 TJSJ 092146
RFWSJU

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
546 PM AST WED SEP 9 2015

...RED FLAG CONDITIONS NO LONGER EXPECTED...

.RELATIVE HUMIDITY IS ABOVE 55 PERCENT AT CAMP SANTIAGO AND EAST TO 
SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE BELOW RED FLAG CRITERIA.

PRZ014-092300-
/O.CAN.TJSJ.FW.W.0017.000000T0000Z-150909T2200Z/
SOUTH CENTRAL COASTAL PLAINS-
546 PM AST WED SEP 9 2015

...RED FLAG WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR LOW HUMIDITIES AND STRONG WINDS 
FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONE 014...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS CANCELLED THE RED FLAG 
WARNING. 

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1053 AM AST WED SEP 9 2015

.UPDATE...NO CHANGES...AS DRIER AIR MOVES ACROSS THE ISLANDS THIS
MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION...NO CHANGES...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL TAF
SITES THRU THE FCST PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 624 AM AST WED SEP 9 2015/

SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...A WEAK TROUGH WILL CONTINUE JUST
NORTHWEST OF THE LOCAL AREA THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

AT MID LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS NEAR THE FORECAST AREA AND
GENERALLY WEST OR NORTHWEST UNTIL A TROUGH FROM THE EAST MOVES
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. MID
LEVELS WILL BE DRY THROUGH THURSDAY...BUT A TROPICAL WAVE PASSAGE
WILL INCREASE MOISTURE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THE APPROACH OF ANOTHER
TROPICAL WAVE WILL INCREASE MOISTURE LATE NEXT WEEK.

AT LOWER LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE IN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL
INCREASE THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING ALLOWING TRADE WINDS TO
INCREASE. REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM GRACE ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA WITH AN INCREASE IN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THEN DRIER CONDITIONS WILL
SUPPORT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS THROUGH MID WEEK.

DISCUSSION...A BAND OF SHOWERS MOVING AT ABOUT 20 KNOTS FROM THE
EAST NORTHEAST DROPPED SOME RAIN ACROSS EASTERN PUERTO RICO AND
THE WATERS AROUND CULEBRA AND VIEQUES. THIS MOISTURE WILL ALSO
FUEL MODERATE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS WESTERN
PUERTO RICO THIS AFTERNOON. MODELS SHOW DRIER AIR MOVING IN BEHIND
THIS BAND THAT WILL LAST UNTIL EARLY THIS EVENING ANOTHER BAND OF
MOISTURE WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS TO EASTERN PUERTO RICO AND
THE WATERS TO THE EAST. THIS MOISTURE WILL ALSO FUEL BETTER
CONVECTION ON THURSDAY. ON FRIDAY THE MOISTURE FROM THE REMNANTS
OF TROPICAL STORM GRACE WILL APPROACH THE AREA. ALTHOUGH GRACE IS
NOW A TROPICAL DEPRESSION IT IS EXPECTED TO BE AN OPEN WAVE BY
FRIDAY. THIS WILL ALSO EXPLAIN THE FASTER MOVEMENT AND HENCE
EARLIER ARRIVAL THAN EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND. ALTHOUGH RAIN
AMOUNTS WILL BE BETTER EVERYWHERE ON ACCOUNT OF THE PASSAGE...THIS
WILL BE A MODERATE EVENT IN PUERTO RICO AND RAINFALL MAY BE LESS
THAN HOPED FOR IN THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO
MORE SOUTHEASTERLY DURING THE PASSAGE OVERNIGHT FRIDAY AND
MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH. SUFFICIENT MOISTURE SHOULD BE
LEFT ON SATURDAY TO FUEL WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
CENTERED IN THE CENTRAL INTERIOR AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF PUERTO
RICO. MOISTURE DIMINISHES AFTER SATURDAY BUT WILL BE SUFFICIENT
FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS...THOUGH NOT PARTICULARLY HEAVY
ACCUMULATIONS...IN MANY PARTS OF PUERTO RICO. SHOWERS WILL
GENERALLY BE LIGHT AND BRIEF IN THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AFTER
SATURDAY.

AVIATION....AVIATION...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL TAF
SITES THRU THE FCST PERIOD. BETWEEN 09/17-21Z MTN TOP OBSC
EXPECTED ALONG THE CORDILLERA CENTRAL WITH PSBL VCSH/VCTS FOR
TJMZ/TJBQ. SOME VCSH ACROSS TJSJ AND THE USVI TERMINALS AFTER
10/23Z. EAST WINDS AT 5 TO 15 KNOTS...WITH HIGHER GUSTS AND SEA
BREEZE VARIATIONS AFT 09/13Z.

MARINE...SEAS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN AS THEY ARE UNTIL THE
APPROACH OF THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM GRACE TO THE
AREA...LIKELY AS AN OPEN WAVE. CARIBBEAN SEAS WILL INCREASE DURING
AND AFTER THE PASSAGE. ATLANTIC SEAS MAY EVEN REACH 7 FEET AS
SWELL AND WINDS ARRIVE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  91  79  90  80 /  20  30  20  30
STT  91  80  90  80 /  20  30  20  30

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

15/11

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
603 AM AST WED SEP 9 2015

AMZ710>745-PRZ001>013-101015-
SAN JUAN AND VICINITY-NORTHEAST-SOUTHEAST-EASTERN INTERIOR-
NORTH CENTRAL-CENTRAL INTERIOR-PONCE AND VICINITY-NORTHWEST-
WESTERN INTERIOR-MAYAGUEZ AND VICINITY-SOUTHWEST-CULEBRA-VIEQUES-
THE NEARSHORE AND OFF SHORE ATLANTIC AND CARIBBEAN COASTAL WATERS-
603 AM AST WED SEP 9 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE ADJACENT
ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

.RIP CURRENTS...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS FOR
THE BEACHES OF JOBOS IN ISABELA...AND BALLENA BEACH IN GUANICA.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THE REMNANTS OF GRACE WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION LATE FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY...BRINGING ORGANIZED CONVECTION TO THE LOCAL ISLANDS.
THERE IS A BETTER CHANCE OF HAVING THUNDERSTORMS...AND THESE
STORMS MAY PRODUCE BRIEF GUSTY WINDS AND DANGEROUS CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING...AS WELL AS LOCALIZED URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

AMZ715-725-VIZ001-002-101015-
ST. THOMAS ST. JOHN ADJACENT ISLANDS-ST CROIX-
NEARSHORE ATLANTIC AND ADJACENT CARIBBEAN COASTAL WATERS-
603 AM AST WED SEP 9 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND THE
ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THE REMNANTS OF GRACE WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION LATE FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY...BRINGING ORGANIZED CONVECTION TO THE LOCAL ISLANDS.
THERE IS A BETTER CHANCE OF HAVING THUNDERSTORMS...BRIEF GUSTY
WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.