Red Flag Warning 15, NWS JSJ

724 
WWCA82 TJSJ 041855
RFWSJU

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
255 PM AST SAT JUL 4 2015

...WINDS AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY ARE EXPECTED TO EXCEED CRITICAL
VALUES TODAY...

.DRIER AIR HAS CAUSED NEAR RED FLAG CONDITIONS TODAY AND GREATER
POTENTIAL EXISTS ON SUNDAY AS WINDS WILL BE MORE OFFSHORE AND LESS
SEA BREEZE EFFECT CAN BE EXPECTED. WINDS WILL CONTINUE STRONG WITH
GUSTS TO NEAR 30 MPH AT LEAST THROUGH SUNDAY. IN ADDITION FUEL
MOISTURES CONTINUE AT OR NEAR CRITICAL VALUES. WE ALSO NOTE THAT
SOME AREAS IN THE WARNED AREA HAVE NOT HAD RAINFALL FOR MORE THAN
7 DAYS.

PRZ014-050300-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.FW.A.0012.150705T1500Z-150705T2200Z/
/O.EXT.TJSJ.FW.W.0015.000000T0000Z-150704T2100Z/
SOUTH COASTAL PLAINS AND MONA ISLAND-
255 PM AST SAT JUL 4 2015

...RED FLAG WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM AST THIS AFTERNOON
FOR LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY AND STRONG WINDS FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONE
014...
...FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH
SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY AND STRONG WINDS FOR
FIRE WEATHER ZONE 014...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED A FIRE
WEATHER WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM LATE SUNDAY MORNING
THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

* AFFECTED AREA...FIRE WEATHER ZONE 014.

* WIND...WINDS 20 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS OF AT LEAST 30 MPH.

* HUMIDITY...MINIMUM VALUES 35 TO 45 PERCENT.

* THUNDERSTORMS...NOT EXPECTED.

* HIGHEST THREAT...IS LOCATED NEAR CAMP SANTIAGO AND CABO ROJO.

* IMPACTS...ANY FIRES THAT DEVELOP WILL LIKELY SPREAD RAPIDLY. 
  OUTDOOR BURNING IS NOT ALLOWED.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE EITHER OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL SHORTLY. A COMBINATION OF
STRONG WINDS...LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY...AND WARM TEMPERATURES WILL
CREATE EXPLOSIVE FIRE GROWTH POTENTIAL.

A FIRE WEATHER WATCH MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE FORECAST TO OCCUR. LISTEN FOR LATER FORECASTS AND POSSIBLE
RED FLAG WARNINGS.

&&

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1054 PM AST FRI JUL 3 2015

.UPDATE...PASSING SHOWERS WERE NOTED MAINLY OVER THE CARIBBEAN
PASSAGE TONIGHT...WITH A FEW STREAMING ALONG THE NORTH COAST OF
PR. HOWEVER...RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS WERE NOT SIGNIFICANT OVER
LAND AREAS AS OF 10 PM AST. WEAK TROPICAL WAVE WILL CONTINUE
TO PASS WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT. THIS COMBINED WITH THE
BRISK EASTERLIES COULD STILL BRING PERIODS OF PASSING SHOWERS
ACROSS THE USVI AND EASTERN PR THRU THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF
SATURDAY. HOWEVER...DRIER CONDITIONS WILL RETURN ONCE AGAIN AS
SAHARAN AIR LAYER FILLS OVER THE REGION THRU THE REST OF THE
WEEKEND. NO CHANGES MADE TO SHORT TERM GRIDS.

&&

.AVIATION...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS ALL TAF
SITES OVERNIGHT. SOME PASSING SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED OVER
TIST...TISX...AND TJSJ. LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL CONTINUE MAINLY EAST
AT 10 TO 15 KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS.

&&

.MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES CONTINUE IN EFFECT DUE TO
OFFSHORE SEAS UP TO 7 FEET. NEARSHORE BUOYS ARE INDICATING SEAS OF
4 TO 6 FEET ACROSS PR AND USVI.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 313 PM AST FRI JUL 3 2015/

SYNOPSIS...WEAK TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED SOUTH OF PUERTO RICO WILL
CONTINUE TO WEST AND AWAY FROM THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING. THE WAVE WILL BRING A FEW ROUNDS OF SHOWERS
ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING. IN THE WAKE OF THE TROPICAL WAVE...A FAIRLY DRY AND
STABLE AIR MASS WITH SAHARAN DUST EMBEDDED WILL LIMIT THE SHOWER
ACTIVITY DURING THE WEEKEND. THE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE WILL PASS
MAINLY SOUTH AGAIN ON TUESDAY.

DISCUSSION...CONDITIONS WILL BECOME WETTER TONIGHT AS MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER EDGE OF THE TROPICAL WAVE BRUSH THE
LOCAL ISLANDS. AS SHOWN IN THE LATEST BLENDED PW ANALYSIS MOISTURE
HAVE INCREASED OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN IN RESPONSE TO THE WAVE.
ALTHOUGH MOISTURE IS FAIRLY SHALLOW...CONTINUE TO EXPECT A FEW
ROUNDS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE USVI AND PR
THE REST OF TODAY AND TUESDAY MORNING. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/TUTT
NORTHEAST OF PR COULD ENHANCE SOMEWHAT THE SHOWER
ACTIVITY...HOWEVER NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS WAVE. THEN...AEROSOL MODELS INDICATED
ADDITIONAL SAHARAN DUST MOVING INTO THE REGION BY LATE SATURDAY
MORNING. THEREFORE...EXPECT LIMITED SHOWER ACTIVITY THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT. EARLY NEXT WEEK...AN EASTERLY PERTURBATION WILL PASS MAINLY
NORTH OF THE ISLANDS AND THE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE IS FORECAST TO
MOVE OVER THE LOCAL CARIBBEAN WATERS ON TUESDAY. IN
GENERAL...BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS IS SUGGESTED BY THE OPERATIONAL
MODELS FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR CONDS EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL TERMINALS.
A FEW SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS W-PR AFTER 03/19Z CAUSING VCSH AROUND
TJMZ/TJBQ. WINDS WILL BE MAINLY FROM THE EAST AT 15-20KT AND GUSTY
FOR THE REST OF TODAY...DECREASING TO 10KT OR SO AFTER 04/00Z. TROPICAL
WAVE EXPECTED TO BRING SHRA ACROSS THE LOCAL TERMINALS OVERNIGHT...
CAUSING VCSH ACROSS MOST OF THE LOCAL TERMINALS.

MARINE...BREEZY AND CHOPPY SEAS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGIONAL
WATERS OVER THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. SEAS WILL RANGE BETWEEN
4-6 FEET ACROSS THE NEARSHORE WATERS AND UP TO 7 FEET ACROSS THE
OUTER WATERS. THEREFORE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL REMAIN IN
EFFECT FOR THE OFFSHORE WATERS AND CARIBBEAN PASSAGES THROUGH
SUNDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  78  90  79  90 /  40  40  20  20
STT  79  89  79  90 /  30  30  20  20

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...VI...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM SATURDAY TO 5 PM AST SUNDAY FOR
     ST. THOMAS/ST. JOHN/ADJACENT ISLANDS.

AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM AST SUNDAY FOR ANEGADA PASSAGE
     SOUTHWARD TO 17N-ATLC WATERS OF PUERTO RICO AND USVI FROM
     10NM TO 19.5N-CARIBBEAN WATERS OF PUERTO RICO FROM 10 NM TO
     17N-MONA PASSAGE SOUTHWARD TO 17N.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM SATURDAY TO 5 PM AST SUNDAY FOR
     COASTAL WATERS OF NORTHERN USVI AND CULEBRA OUT 10 NM-
     COASTAL WATERS OF SOUTHERN USVI VIEQUES AND EASTERN PUERTO
     RICO OUT 10 NM.

&&

71/13

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
633 AM AST FRI JUL 3 2015

AMZ710>745-PRZ001>013-041045-
SAN JUAN AND VICINITY-NORTHEAST-SOUTHEAST-EASTERN INTERIOR-
NORTH CENTRAL-CENTRAL INTERIOR-PONCE AND VICINITY-NORTHWEST-
WESTERN INTERIOR-MAYAGUEZ AND VICINITY-SOUTHWEST-CULEBRA-VIEQUES-
THE NEARSHORE AND OFF SHORE ATLANTIC AND CARIBBEAN COASTAL WATERS-
633 AM AST FRI JUL 3 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE ADJACENT
ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

.RIP CURRENTS...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS FOR
MOST OF THE LOCAL BEACHES. PLEASE REFER TO THE SURF ZONE FORECAST
(SRFSJU) FOR MORE INFORMATION.

.FIRE...INCREASED FIRE DANGER EXPECTED ACROSS THE SOUTH COASTAL
PLAINS OF PUERTO RICO. PLEASE REFER TO THE FIRE DANGER STATEMENT
(RFDSJU) FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED. HOWEVER INDIVIDUAL
SPOTTER ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT RIP CURRENTS TO THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN.

AMZ715-725-VIZ001-002-041045-
ST. THOMAS ST. JOHN ADJACENT ISLANDS-ST CROIX-
NEARSHORE ATLANTIC AND ADJACENT CARIBBEAN COASTAL WATERS-
633 AM AST FRI JUL 3 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND THE
ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

.RIP CURRENTS...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS FOR
MAGENS BAY AND CRAMER PARK.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED. HOWEVER INDIVIDUAL
SPOTTER ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT RIP CURRENTS TO THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN.