Red Flag Warning 12, NWS JSJ

992 
WWCA82 TJSJ 061848
RFWSJU

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
248 PM AST WED MAY 6 2015

...RED FLAG CONDTIONS NO LONGER EXPECTED...

.DRY AIR AND STRONG WINDS DID NOT OVERCOME GOOD ONSHORE FLOW THIS
AFTERNOON AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY DID NOT REACH RED FLAG CRITERIA.
HUMIDITY LEVELS ARE ALREADY BEGINNING TO INCREASE ACROSS THE
REGION SO THE RED FLAG WARNING IS CANCELLED.

PRZ014-025-VIZ002-062000-
/O.CAN.TJSJ.FW.W.0012.000000T0000Z-150506T2100Z/
SOUTH COASTAL PLAINS AND MONA ISLAND-CULEBRA-ST CROIX-
248 PM AST WED MAY 6 2015

...RED FLAG WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR LOW HUMIDITY AND STRONG WIND FOR
FIRE WEATHER ZONES 002...014 AND 025...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS CANCELLED THE RED
FLAG WARNING.

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
419 AM AST WED MAY 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL WEAKEN RAPIDLY AFTER TODAY AS
CUTOFF LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE SOUTHEAST US. SAL WILL DOMINATE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SAHARAN AIR LAYER WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AND MAINTAIN MUCH DRYER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS. AS UPPER LEVEL
CUTOFF LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE SOUTHEAST US...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
WILL WEAKEN RAPIDLY AFTER TODAY THROUGH MID NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...THE
MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE MUCH SLOWER TO WEAKEN BUT EVENTUALLY COLLAPSE
BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE
BAHAMAS MOVES EWD. THE END RESULT IS A TREND TOWARD COOLER TEMPERATURES
AND BETTER MOISTURE FOR EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK AS SUBSIDENCE INVERSION
WEAKENS AND ALLOWS FOR BETTER MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY. WHILE
CONDITIONS WILL BECOME MORE FVRBL FOR DEEP CONVECTION EARLY TO MID
WEEK...THE MODELS HOLD ON TO SOME MID-LEVEL DRY AIR AND FOCUS MUCH
OF THE ASSOCIATED RAINFALL NORTH OF 20N. EXPECT MAINLY SCT
AFTERNOON DEEP CONVECTION TO DEVELOP OVR NCNTRL/NW PR AS STEERING
WINDS REMAIN FROM THE SOUTHEAST. SO NO DROUGHT BUSTING RAINS ARE
EXPECTED BUT SOME RAIN IS BETTER THAN NO RAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL FLYING
AREA FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HZ DUE SAHARAN DUST BUT VSBY WILL REMAIN
P6SM. EASTERLY WINDS EXPECTED AT 15 TO 20 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 25
KT.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS 20KT AND SEAS 4-6 FT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...VERY NEAR RED FLAG YESTERDAY AT CAMP SANTIAGO AND
RED FLAG AT VIEQUES. CONDITIONS WILL BE SIMILAR TODAY WITH
PROBABLY LOWER RH'S BUT UNCERTAINTY LINGERS WITH RESPECT TO
WINDS. 06/00Z JSJ RAOB SHOWED A DIMINISHING TREND IN 925 MB WINDS
FROM 12Z AND WEAKER THAN FCST BY GFS. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
TRENDS AND DECIDE WHETHER A RED FLAG WARNING IS WARRANTED. SIMILAR
AGAIN ON THU WITH INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS FRI AND THROUGH THE
WEEKEND MITIGATING THE FIRE DANGER SOMEWHAT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  90  79  91  79 /   0   0  10  10
STT  88  79  87  79 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM AST THIS EVENING FOR MONA
     PASSAGE SOUTHWARD TO 17N.

&&

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