High Surf Advisory 1, NWS JSJ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
335 PM AST FRI JAN 9 2015

.DISCUSSION...NUMEROUS SHOWERS ON AND NORTHWARD FROM PR COAST ARE
MOVING WESTWARD WHILE THE 700 MB TROUGH IN THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN
IS MOSTLY FREE OF SHOWERS. CURRENT RADARS ON LESSER ANTILLES SHOW
THAT SHOWERS ARE ONLY INCREASING AGAIN ONLY AS FAR NORTH AND WEST
AS DOMINICA WHERE PRECIPITABLE WATER INCREASES TO 1.5 INCHES. WE
CURRENTLY HAVE OUR AREA ALMOST RAIN-FREE LATE TONIGHT WHICH IS NOT
CONSISTENT WITH RECENT HISTORY BUT WE HAVEN/T HAD A TROUGH LIKE
THIS WITH SUBSIDENCE BEHIND IT IN AWHILE. NOT ENOUGH REASON TO
CHANGE THE DRY FORECAST SO LEFT IT AS IS.

PRECIPITABLE WATER REMAINS ABOVE SEASONAL LEVELS POSSIBLY THROUGH
NEXT WEEK BUT A TROUGH AS SIGNIFICANT AS THE ONE WE HAVE TODAY IS
NOT APPARENT IN MODELS. WE DO HAVE A 250 MB TROUGH PASSING BY ON
SAT (TOMORROW) BUT THE TROUGH IS NOT DEEP ENOUGH TO INCREASE
SHOWERS MUCH. EVEN AS LOW AS 500 MB WE WILL HAVE A RIDGE. SO
SCATTERED SHOWERS STILL SEEM APPROPRIATE ATTM.

&&

.AVIATION...NMRS SHRA ON AND N OF PR COAST HAS NOT CAUSED MUCH
MVFR AND DO NOT EXPECT IT TO. DRY TROUGH APPROACHING FOR TONITE
THEN ISOLD/SCT SHRA SAT. WINDS BLO FL150 E 12-24 KT DECR ESE 10-18
KT ON SAT.

&&

.MARINE...A 12-13-FOOT NORTHWEST SWELL CURRENTLY AT BUOY 41046 WILL
DECAY TO 8 FT IN ATLANTIC PR WATERS ON SAT MORNING AND WILL BE
RISING AT BUOY 41043 AND PR WATERS SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET. MODELS
LOOK A FEW HOURS EARLY INCREASING THE SEAS THIS AFTERNOON BUT
LOOKED BETTER BY EVENING AND RELIED PRIMARILY ON WNAWAVE4 THROUGH
SUNDAY. HOWEVER KEPT THAT GRID AS IS BEYOND SUN EVE AS CAUTION
SEEMS PRUDENT IN THAT MODELS HAVE BEEN PUSHING BACK THE START OF
AND THE INTENSITY OF TRADE WINDS THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  72  83  76  83 /  20  50  50  50
STT  74  86  75  85 /  10  50  50  40

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...

VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 AM SATURDAY TO 3 PM AST TUESDAY FOR
     ANEGADA PASSAGE SOUTHWARD TO 17N-CARIBBEAN WATERS OF PUERTO
     RICO FROM 10 NM TO 17N-COASTAL WATERS OF NORTHERN PUERTO
     RICO OUT 10 NM-MONA PASSAGE SOUTHWARD TO 17N.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM SATURDAY TO 3 PM AST TUESDAY FOR
     COASTAL WATERS OF NORTHERN USVI AND CULEBRA OUT 10 NM-
     COASTAL WATERS OF SOUTHERN USVI VIEQUES AND EASTERN PUERTO
     RICO OUT 10 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 AM MONDAY TO 3 PM AST TUESDAY FOR
     COASTAL WATERS OF SOUTHERN PUERTO RICO OUT 10 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 AM SATURDAY TO 3 AM AST SUNDAY FOR
     COASTAL WATERS OF NORTHWESTERN PUERTO RICO OUT 10 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 PM AST TUESDAY
     FOR ATLC WATERS OF PUERTO RICO AND USVI FROM 10NM TO 19.5N.

&&

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