Special Weather Statement, NWS Jackson, KY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
430 PM EDT WED AUG 5 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 300 PM EDT WED AUG 5 2015

STRAIGHT FORWARD FORECAST. MID AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL TRANSIT
THE REGION DURING THE SHORT TERM. AMPLE MOISTURE...A RELATIVELY
SLOW MOVING SFC SYSTEM...THE POTENTIAL FOR TRAINING AND OTHER
FAVORABLE HYDRO PARAMETERS INDICATE THAT HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE A
CONCERN TONIGHT THROUGH LATE THURSDAY EVENING.

FIRST ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE APPROACHING FROM THE
WEST AS COMPLEX OF STORMS PASS THROUGH CENTRAL KY. CONVECTION HAS
FIRED OVER THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU AS WELL AND HAS BEEN SHOWING
VERY LITTLE MOVEMENT. SUBSTANTIAL HEATING CONTINUES TO
DESTABILIZE OUR BOUNDARY LAYER...BUT WITH A LACK OF SHEAR EXPECT
SEVERE POTENTIAL TO BE LIMITED THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING.
JUST THE SAME COULD NOT RULE OUT A FEW STRONG STORMS AND MAYBE AN
ISOLD SEVERE STORM OR TWO LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING...
SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS FEW DAYS.

HYDRO WILL BECOME AN INCREASING CONCERN AS PWATS CLIMB TONIGHT
AND STORM MOTION BEGINS TO SLACKEN...PARTICULARLY THURSDAY. PWATS
CLIMB TO NEAR 2 INCHES...STORM MOTION DROPS BELOW 10 KTS AND
FREEZING LEVELS HOVER AROUND 13K FT. TRAINING OF ANY STORM CELLS
WOULD ONLY ADD INSULT TO INJURY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 430 PM EDT WED AUG 5 2015

THE MODELS ARE IN BROAD AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE EXTENDED AS AN
ACTIVE PATTERN CONTINUES OVER THE OHIO VALLEY ON THE NORTHEAST
FRINGE OF A STRONG SOUTHERN PLAINS RIDGE. THE NEXT IN A TRAIN OF
SHORT WAVES WILL BRUSH BY EASTERN KENTUCKY TO THE NORTHEAST LATER
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING AS THE RIDGE BUILDS SLIGHTLY INTO
THE AREA. THE NEXT WAVE WILL TRACK MORE SOLIDLY THROUGH OUR AREA
INTO SUNDAY MORNING WITH YET ANOTHER FOLLOWING A SIMILAR COURSE THAT
NIGHT. THESE WAVES WILL WORK TO BEAT DOWN THE NORTHEAST PORTION OF
THE LARGER RIDGE BY THE START OF THE WEEK. AN EVEN STRONGER WAVE
APPROACHES MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH MORE SIGNIFICANT HEIGHT
FALLS. THE ECMWF IS STRONGER WITH THIS TROUGH WHEN COMPARED TO THE
GFS. THIS AMPLIFICATION CONTINUES THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY STILL
STRONGEST IN THE ECMWF. HAVE FAVORED A GENERAL MODEL BLEND THROUGH
THE BULK OF THE PERIOD WITH A LEAN TOWARD THE ECMWF FOR THE START
OF THE NEW WORK WEEK.

SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE THE EXIT OF A SYNOPTIC LOW OFF TO THE
EAST WITH SOME LINGERING CONVECTION IN SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY THROUGH
THE DAY FRIDAY. A WARM...HUMID...AND MOSTLY DRY WEEKEND FOLLOWS WITH
ONLY A SMALL CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM LIKELY HOLDING OFF
TO THE NORTHEAST BUT BETTER CHANCES WILL ARRIVE FROM THE WEST ON
SUNDAY CURLING AROUND THE RETREATING MID LEVEL RIDGE. ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS AND STORMS THEN CAN BE EXPECTED TO OVERTAKE THE AREA MONDAY
AND TUESDAY AS THE APPROACHING STRONG TROUGH INDUCES A SFC LOW TO
DEVELOP OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS LOW MOVES OUT BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING WITH SOMEWHAT COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS TO FOLLOW.

THE CR GRID BLEND CAME IN REASONABLY WELL WITH THE BULK OF ANY
ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO THE POPS AND SKY GRIDS TO REFLECT THE DIURNAL
CYCLE AND ALSO TO LEAN TOWARD THE ECMWF FOR NEXT WEEK. AS FOR
TEMPERATURES...DID ADJUST THE LOWS A BIT EACH NIGHT TO CAPTURE SOME
MINOR TO MODERATE TERRAIN EFFECTS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE
EXTENDED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 127 PM EDT WED AUG 5 2015

MORNING FOG AND LOW STRATUS HAS FINALLY DISSIPATED. COMPLEX OF
STORMS CROSSING CENTRAL KY AND ACTIVITY DRIFTING NORTHWARD FROM
THE TN VALLEY WILL BRING THE THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS BACK INTO
THE FORECAST DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON TIME FRAME...
AFFECTING OUR SOUTHWESTERN MOST TERMINALS FIRST...THEN SPREADING
NORTHEAST. INCREASED COVERAGE WILL BEGIN LATER TONIGHT AS A STORM
SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. LOOK FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF
RAIN AND MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA AS A STORM SYSTEM
PASSES THROUGH THE REGION LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. EXPECT
MAINLY LIGHT WINDS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD OUTSIDE OF
THUNDERSTORMS...BUT BECOMING MORE SOUTHWESTERLY THURSDAY.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT FOR KYZ044-050>052-
058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120.

&&

SHORT TERM...RAY
LONG TERM...GREIF
AVIATION...RAY

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
413 PM EDT WED AUG 5 2015

KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120-061100-
FLEMING-MONTGOMERY-BATH-ROWAN-ESTILL-POWELL-MENIFEE-ROCKCASTLE-
JACKSON-PULASKI-LAUREL-WAYNE-MCCREARY-WHITLEY-KNOX-BELL-HARLAN-
ELLIOTT-MORGAN-JOHNSON-WOLFE-MAGOFFIN-FLOYD-LEE-BREATHITT-KNOTT-
OWSLEY-PERRY-CLAY-LESLIE-LETCHER-MARTIN-PIKE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...FLEMINGSBURG...CAMARGO...
JEFFERSONVILLE...MOUNT STERLING...OWINGSVILLE...MOREHEAD...
IRVINE...RAVENNA...CLAY CITY...STANTON...FRENCHBURG...BRODHEAD...
MOUNT VERNON...MCKEE...ANNVILLE...BURNSIDE...SOMERSET...LONDON...
MONTICELLO...STEARNS...WHITLEY CITY...CORBIN...WILLIAMSBURG...
BARBOURVILLE...MIDDLESBORO...PINEVILLE...CUMBERLAND...HARLAN...
SANDY HOOK...WEST LIBERTY...PAINTSVILLE...CAMPTON...
SALYERSVILLE...PRESTONSBURG...WHEELWRIGHT...BEATTYVILLE...
JACKSON...HINDMAN...PIPPA PASSES...BOONEVILLE...HAZARD...
MANCHESTER...HYDEN...JENKINS...WHITESBURG...INEZ...COAL RUN...
ELKHORN CITY...PIKEVILLE...SOUTH WILLIAMSON
413 PM EDT WED AUG 5 2015

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN KENTUCKY.

.DAY ONE...LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. SOME
STORMS COULD BE STRONG LATE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH A FEW EVEN
REACHING SEVERE LIMITS. THE GREATEST THREAT FROM ANY SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.

IN ADDITION...THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT WILL
PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL...INCREASING THE THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING.
RAPID RISES ON AREA STREAMS AND CREEKS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AT TIMES FROM THURSDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY...AND THEN AGAIN ON SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY.

THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY AND THURSDAY EVENING COULD PRODUCE
HEAVY RAINFALL...INCREASING THE THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING. RAPID
RISES ON AREA STREAMS AND CREEKS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY STORM DAMAGE FROM
THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS WELL AS INSTANCES OF
FLOODING FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING.

SHALLENBERGER/RAY

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