Severe Thunderstorm Warning 93, NWS Jackson, KY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1058 AM EDT THU JUL 9 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1058 AM EDT THU JUL 9 2015

BASED ON OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS AND LATEST SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE WILL
BE INCREASING RAIN CHANCES THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY IN THE
CENTRAL TO NORTHERN PART OF THE AREA.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 958 AM EDT THU JUL 9 2015

WILL NEED TO MONITOR CONVECTIVE COMPLEX CURRENTLY IN CENTRAL KY AS
IT MOVES EAST INTO FORECAST AREA. A SMALL BOWING SEGMENT NORTH OF
BOWLING GREEN IS MOVING EAST AROUND 50 KNOTS...AND IF IT HOLDS
TOGETHER WILL MOVE INTO FORECAST AREA BETWEEN 11 AM AND NOON. SPC
DID EXTEND MARGINAL RISK AREA FURTHER SOUTHEAST INTO NORTHEAST KY
FOR THIS AFTERNOON...AND WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME STRONG
STORMS ACROSS OUR AREA. WHILE THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE
CONVECTIVE COMPLEX CONTINUES TO WEAKEN...EXPECT STRENGTHENING
OR REDEVELOPMENT ALONG THE SOUTHWEST PORTION OF LINE DURING THE
EARLY AFTERNOON IN OUR AREA. WILL UPDATE HWO TO INCLUDE MENTION OF
STRONG STORM POSSIBILITY THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE ALSO UPDATED NDFD
AND ASSOCIATED PRODUCTS. INCREASED AFTERNOON MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES
IN THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE AREA AHEAD OF SAGGING COLD FRONT WHERE
SUNSHINE WILL HELP PUSH TEMPERATURES TO AROUND 90.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 640 AM EDT THU JUL 9 2015

CONVECTIVE COMPLEX THAT IS CURRENTLY MOVING INTO CENTRAL KENTUCKY
LOOKS LIKE ITS STARTING TO FALL APART...SO HAVE ONLY BUMPED POPS
UP TO ABOUT 40 PERCENT IN CASE SOME SHOWERS MAKE IT INTO THE
FORECAST AREA OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ALSO UPDATED GRIDS TO
REMOVE FOG. OTHERWISE...FRESHENED UP GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR RECENT
TRENDS. SENT UPDATED GRIDS TO NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM EDT THU JUL 9 2015

THE FRONT LIFTED NORTH OF THE AREA OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS
LIMITING THE CHANCES FOR ANY RAINFALL TO JUST THE NORTHERN COUNTIES
THROUGH AT LEAST MID MORNING. THEN DURING THE DAY WE SHOULD SEE A
GRADUAL INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER AS THE FRONT STARTS SAGGING SOUTH
AGAIN. THIS FRONTAL MOVEMENT IS IN RESPONSE TO A WAVE PASSING TO OUR
NORTH. THINKING THAT THE MAJORITY OF THE SHOWERS AND STORMS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WON/T IMPACT OUR FORECAST AREA UNTIL THE
EVENING TIME PERIOD BUT HAVE REINTRODUCED CHANCE POPS STARTING IN
THE AFTERNOON HOURS AND THEN GRADUALLY SPREAD THEM SOUTHWARD. DURING
THE AFTERNOON...WINDS WILL BECOME WARM AND GUSTY...POSSIBLY GUSTING
UP TO 15-25 KTS IN SPOTS. SHOWERS MAY LINGER IN THE SOUTHERN HALF
OF OUR FORECAST AREA THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING DUE TO THE FRONT
STALLING OUT ONCE AGAIN. THE STALLED FRONT IS SET UP NEARLY
PARALLEL TO THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW ALLOWING FOR WEAK IMPULSES TO
RIDE ALONG IT AND INITIATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE
END OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.

TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S TODAY WITH
THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES SEEN FURTHER SOUTH WHERE THERE IS LESS
CLOUD COVER. TONIGHT...TEMPERATURES WILL DIP INTO THE UPPER 60S
BEFORE REBOUNDING TO THE LOW TO MID 80S ON FRIDAY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 420 AM EDT THU JUL 9 2015

THE MODELS ARE STILL ONLY IN FAIR AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE
EXTENDED. THEY ALL DEPICT THE RETROGRADING AND STRENGTHENING UPPER
LOW MOVING FROM THE DEEP SOUTH TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS OVER THE
WEEKEND. THIS TRANSITION WILL LEAVE EASTERN KENTUCKY ON THE
NORTHWEST FRINGES OF THE HIGHER HEIGHTS BY THE START OF THE NEW
WEEK...BUT ALSO NEAR THE TRACK FOR SHORTWAVES DROPPING SOUTHEAST
IN NORTHWEST FLOW. THIS IS ALSO THE TIME WHEN THE MODELS START TO
EXHIBIT A LARGER SPREAD TO THEIR SOLUTIONS. THE ECMWF IS STRONGER
WITH A LEAD SHORTWAVE ON MONDAY AS IT MOVES INTO THE NORTHEAST...
WHEN COMPARED TO THE CANADIAN AND GFS MODELS. IN FACT...THE ECMWF
IS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE MODEL WITH RESPECT TO HEIGHT FALLS THROUGH
THE APPALACHIANS INTO MID WEEK. ITS LEAD WAVE IS FOLLOWED BY A
COUPLE OF SUBSTANTIAL ONES PUSHING INTO KENTUCKY AS IT ATTEMPTS TO
CARVE OUT A CLOSED LOW OVER THE REGION. MEANWHILE...THE GFS IS
GENERALLY FLATTER WITH PATTERN DOWNSTREAM OF THE SOUTHER PLAINS
RIDGE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. GIVEN THE AGREEMENT EARLY ON AND THEN
THE UNCERTAINTY LATER IN THE PERIOD A GENERAL MODEL BLEND SEEMS
REASONABLE WITH A LEAN TOWARD THE LATEST ECMWF SOLUTION AFTER 00Z
MONDAY.

SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE A SEASONABLY WARM AND HUMID MID
SUMMER PERIOD WITH OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS...GENERALLY
FAVORING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
WAVER OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH PERIODIC
WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG IT TO GENERATE CONVECTION...
ENHANCED BY SEVERAL MID LEVEL ENERGY WAVES. EVEN SO...IT IS HARD
TO PINPOINT A DAY OR LOCATION THAT WOULD BE MOST UNDER THE GUN
FOR EXCESSIVE RAINS IN THIS PATTERN SO THE FORECAST AND HWO HAS
BEEN LEFT FAIRLY GENERIC. ANY EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WOULD BE MAINLY
LOCAL AND THE RESULT OF TRAINING DEVELOPING AS STORMS MOVE
REPEATEDLY OVER THE SAME SPOTS...AND THE BEST BET FOR THAT WILL
BE MAINLY NORTH AND EAST OF THE CWA.

THE CR GRID BLEND CAME IN PRETTY GOOD WITH THE MAJORITY OF ANY
ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO THE POPS AND SKY GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE
DIURNAL CYCLE ENHANCING THESE GRIDS THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED ALONG
WITH A LEAN TOWARD THE ECMWF LATE. AS FOR TEMPERATURES...DID
TWEAK THE LOWS A BIT EACH NIGHT TO REPRESENT MINOR TERRAIN
EFFECTS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 750 AM EDT THU JUL 9 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THIS MORNING BEFORE THE REMNANTS OF
THE CURRENT DYING MCS TO OUR WEST MAKES IT BACK INTO OUR AREA
BRINGING SPOTTY MVFR CIGS AND VIS. TRAILING THIS...A COLD FRONT
WILL SAG INTO SOUTH THROUGH EAST KENTUCKY WITH ADDITIONAL SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES/MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. WHILE MOST OF THE ACTIVITY WILL WANE THIS EVENING...THE
NAM12 IS SUGGESTING A RESURGENCE TOWARD MIDNIGHT ACROSS THE SOUTH
SO HAVE ADDED VCTS TO THE LOZ AND SME TAFS AFTER 03Z. WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO GUST TO ANYWHERE BETWEEN 15 AND 25 KTS FROM THE
SOUTHWEST STARTING LATE THIS MORNING AND LASTING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...SETTLING AFTER SUNSET.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

UPDATE...SBH
SHORT TERM...JVM
LONG TERM...GREIF
AVIATION...GREIF

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1009 AM EDT THU JUL 9 2015

KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120-101200-
FLEMING-MONTGOMERY-BATH-ROWAN-ESTILL-POWELL-MENIFEE-ROCKCASTLE-
JACKSON-PULASKI-LAUREL-WAYNE-MCCREARY-WHITLEY-KNOX-BELL-HARLAN-
ELLIOTT-MORGAN-JOHNSON-WOLFE-MAGOFFIN-FLOYD-LEE-BREATHITT-KNOTT-
OWSLEY-PERRY-CLAY-LESLIE-LETCHER-MARTIN-PIKE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...FLEMINGSBURG...CAMARGO...
JEFFERSONVILLE...MOUNT STERLING...OWINGSVILLE...MOREHEAD...
IRVINE...RAVENNA...CLAY CITY...STANTON...FRENCHBURG...BRODHEAD...
MOUNT VERNON...MCKEE...ANNVILLE...BURNSIDE...SOMERSET...LONDON...
MONTICELLO...STEARNS...WHITLEY CITY...CORBIN...WILLIAMSBURG...
BARBOURVILLE...MIDDLESBORO...PINEVILLE...CUMBERLAND...HARLAN...
SANDY HOOK...WEST LIBERTY...PAINTSVILLE...CAMPTON...
SALYERSVILLE...PRESTONSBURG...WHEELWRIGHT...BEATTYVILLE...
JACKSON...HINDMAN...PIPPA PASSES...BOONEVILLE...HAZARD...
MANCHESTER...HYDEN...JENKINS...WHITESBURG...INEZ...COAL RUN...
ELKHORN CITY...PIKEVILLE...SOUTH WILLIAMSON
1009 AM EDT THU JUL 9 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN KENTUCKY.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A FEW OF
THE STORMS COULD PRODUCE WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH ALONG WITH BRIEF
VERY HEAVY RAINS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AT TIMES FROM FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

SBH

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1139 AM EDT THU JUL 9 2015

KYZ058-068-069-111-114-091630-
ESTILL-ROCKCASTLE-JACKSON-OWSLEY-LEE-
1139 AM EDT THU JUL 9 2015

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT ESTILL...ROCKCASTLE...JACKSON...
OWSLEY...LEE...

AT 1138 AM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 10 MILES WEST OF
MCKEE...MOVING EAST AT 45 MPH.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
MOUNT VERNON...BEATTYVILLE...AND MCKEE.

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 75 IN EAST CENTRAL KENTUCKY BETWEEN MILE
MARKERS 59 AND 69.

&&

LAT...LON 3752 8430 3751 8427 3752 8420 3756 8416
      3757 8409 3760 8411 3772 8374 3734 8368
      3735 8378 3732 8384 3733 8411 3733 8413
      3734 8445
TIME...MOT...LOC 1538Z 271DEG 37KT 3747 8418

ABE

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1209 PM EDT THU JUL 9 2015

KYZ069-111-112-114-091645-
BREATHITT-JACKSON-OWSLEY-LEE-
1209 PM EDT THU JUL 9 2015

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT BREATHITT...JACKSON...OWSLEY...
AND LEE COUNTIES...

AT 1208 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS OVER TRAVELLERS REST...OR
7 MILES WEST OF BOONEVILLE...MOVING EAST AT 45 MPH.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
JACKSON...BEATTYVILLE...BOONEVILLE...CROCKETTSVILLE...QUICKSAND...
ARVEL...CRESSMONT...LEROSE...IDA MAY...BANFORD...ST. HELENS...
CANOE...COPLAND...HOWARD CREEK...TRAVELLERS REST...YEADON...WHICK...
OAKDALE...STURGEON AND WOLF COAL.

&&

LAT...LON 3738 8345 3737 8349 3740 8392 3754 8392
      3764 8330 3736 8338 3736 8343
TIME...MOT...LOC 1608Z 268DEG 40KT 3746 8382

ABE

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1223 PM EDT THU JUL 9 2015

KYZ106>109-111-112-091700-
WOLFE-BREATHITT-JOHNSON-MAGOFFIN-MORGAN-LEE-
1223 PM EDT THU JUL 9 2015

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT WOLFE...BREATHITT...
JOHNSON...MAGOFFIN...MORGAN...AND LEE COUNTIES...

AT 1222 PM EDT...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WAS ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM WEST LIBERTY TO CAMPTON TO BEATTYVILLE...MOVING EAST
AT 40 MPH.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
PAINTSVILLE...SALYERSVILLE...BEATTYVILLE...AND VANCLEVE.

THIS INCLUDES THE FOLLOWING HIGHWAYS...
 BERT T. COMBS MOUNTAIN PARKWAY BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 49 AND 76.
 U.S. HIGHWAY 23 IN JOHNSON COUNTY BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 4 AND 16.

&&

LAT...LON 3798 8302 3800 8296 3800 8293 3797 8283
      3791 8273 3789 8265 3771 8292 3772 8293
      3770 8294 3759 8311 3756 8375 3800 8306
      3801 8303
TIME...MOT...LOC 1622Z 268DEG 35KT 3797 8304 3761 8360

ABE

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1256 PM EDT THU JUL 9 2015

KYZ107-109-110-112-119-091730-
BREATHITT-JOHNSON-MAGOFFIN-MARTIN-FLOYD-
1256 PM EDT THU JUL 9 2015

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT BREATHITT...JOHNSON...
MAGOFFIN...MARTIN...AND FLOYD COUNTIES THROUGH 130 PM EDT...

AT 1254 PM EDT...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WAS ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM NEAR PAINTSVILLE TO NEAR JACKSON...AND MOVING EAST AT
45 MPH.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
PAINTSVILLE...PRESTONSBURG...SALYERSVILLE...INEZ...AND THE CITY OF
MARTIN.

THIS INCLUDES THE FOLLOWING HIGHWAYS...
 BERT T. COMBS MOUNTAIN PARKWAY BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 74 AND 76.
 KENTUCKY HIGHWAY 80 IN FLOYD COUNTY BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 5 AND 14.
 U.S. HIGHWAY 23 IN FLOYD COUNTY BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 6 AND 21.
 U.S. HIGHWAY 23 IN JOHNSON COUNTY BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 0 AND 16.

&&

LAT...LON 3769 8253 3767 8261 3763 8260 3751 8275
      3754 8334 3796 8282 3789 8268 3788 8261
      3795 8258 3796 8253 3794 8249 3794 8250
      3790 8247 3791 8247 3787 8241 3787 8242
      3781 8240 3781 8238
TIME...MOT...LOC 1654Z 267DEG 38KT 3795 8278 3760 8322

ABE