Severe Thunderstorm Warning 66, NWS Jackson, KY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
442 PM EDT SUN JUN 21 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 442 PM EDT SUN JUN 21 2015

CONVECTION IS FIRING ALONG AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY THAT SETTLED DOWN
INTO OUR AREA TODAY...PRODUCED BY AN MCS TO OUR NORTHWEST LAST
NIGHT. WITH AMPLE SFC BASED INSTABILITY TO DRAW FROM...STORMS HAVE
BEGUN TO FIRE WITH SOME LIKELY REACHING SEVERE LEVELS. WE HAVE
GOTTEN SOME CALLS OF THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME TREES DOWN IN
SOUTHERN PERRY COUNTY...BUT STILL TRYING TO CONFIRM. SPC HAS
ISSUED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR AREAS GENERALLY ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE MOUNTAIN PARKWAY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING. THIS
ACTIVITY WILL SHIFT SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING HOURS BEFORE DISSIPATING.

ELONGATED RIDGE STRETCHING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CONUS WILL BUILD
BACK TO THE EAST THROUGH THE SHORT TERM...CONTINUING THE HEAT AND
HUMIDITY THAT WILL DRIVE HEAT INDEX VALUES WELL INTO THE 90S...
AND CLOSE TO 100 OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF AFTERNOONS. THIS RIDGE
WILL TEND TO KEEP ACTIVE WEATHER FROM CORE WESTERLIES TO OUR NORTH
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD AS WELL. A TRUE SUMMERTIME PATTERN
TO WELCOME IN THE BEGINNING OF SUMMER.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 PM EDT SUN JUN 21 2015

MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH NEXT
WEEKEND. UNFORTUNATELY...THE HEAT...HUMIDITY...AND CHANCES FOR
PRECIP ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THIS TIME AS WELL. WE WILL
START OFF WITH A BROAD AREA OF RIDGING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
CONUS...CONTINUING TO REACH ITS WAY EASTWARD INTO THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY. MEANWHILE...A STRONG SHORTWAVE
WILL PASS SOUTHWARD ALONG THE GREAT LAKES REGION...CREATING AN AREA
OF PACKED ISOBARS AND STRONG WINDS JUST NORTH OF KENTUCKY. THE WNW
FLOW THAT THIS CREATES WILL ALLOW SEVERAL SMALLER SHORTWAVES TO
TRAVERSE THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEK...BRINGING OFF AND ON CHANCES
OF PRECIP AND POSSIBILITIES FOR LARGER MCS DEVELOPMENT.

BY THURSDAY...THE SHORTWAVE THAT MOVED ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION
WILL BECOME WRAPPED UP IN A STRENGTHENING UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE
SOUTHEAST CANADIAN COAST. THIS WILL DEEPEN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS
THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY...AND PUSH THE RIDGING TO OUR SOUTH BACK
WESTWARD TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...AND EVENTUALLY THE FOUR
CORNER STATES BY THURSDAY NIGHT. KINKS IN THIS NW FLOW /SMALL
SHORTWAVES/ WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT SE TOWARDS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY
AS THIS OCCURS...STRENGTHENING AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND AND THE
LONG TERM MODELS TRY TO PRODUCE ANOTHER STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW WHICH
WILL LEAD TO A DIGGING TROUGH OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS. WHILE
THE EXACT TIMING OF THESE FEATURES IS STILL A BIT OFF THIS FAR OUT
IN THE FORECAST...THE OVERALL PATTERN IS QUITE SIMILAR.

AT THE SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE WILL SET UP BELOW THE CLOSED LOW
MOVING FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO SOUTHEASTERN CANADA. FROM THIS LOW A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL EXTEND WESTWARD...BECOMING CAUGHT AND
ELONGATED IN THE WSW FLOW ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. THIS
BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO FLUCTUATE...SHIFTING NORTH AS THE NW FLOW
DEEPENS...AND THEN BACK SOUTHWARD AGAIN AS THE LONGWAVE TROUGH
BEGINS TO DIG FARTHER SOUTH. THE COMBINATION OF THIS BOUNDARY AND
PASSING SHORTWAVES WILL CREATING THE RESULTING PRECIP CHANCES
THROUGH THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMEST TUESDAY WITH
SOUTHERLY FLOW STILL IN PLACE JUST AHEAD OF THE DROPPING COLD
FRONT...THEN ARE EXPECTED TO FALL SLIGHTLY AS THE FRONT SHEARS OUT
AND SHIFTS BACK AND FORTH ACROSS THE REGION. IF THE EXTENDED MODELS
HOLD TRUE...THE DIGGING TROUGH LATE IN THE WEEKEND WILL RESULT IN A
SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING JUST NORTH OF THE REGION...AND BRINGING OUR
BEST WIDESPREAD CHANCE FOR PRECIP.

GIVEN THE HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS IN ADDITION TO THE CLOSE
PROXIMITY OF THE BOUNDARY...EXPECT ANY PRECIP THAT DEVELOPS TO HAVE
SOME THUNDER COMPONENT TO IT AND BE MOST PROMINENT DURING THE

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 215 PM EDT SUN JUN 21 2015

THERE APPEARS TO BE A CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY THAT HAS SETTLED
OVER THE COMMONWEALTH...LOCATED APPROXIMATELY FROM JUST SOUTH OF
SDF TO DVK AND THEN BACK NORTHEAST...POSSIBLY JUST SOUTH OF SYM.
BASED ON HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS EXPECTING THUNDERSTORMS TO FIRE UP
IN THE VCNTY OF THIS SFC BOUNDARY THIS AFTERNOON ONCE WE HIT
CONVECTIVE TEMPS...MID TO UPPER 80S OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO.
HAVE MAINTAINED A MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE TAFS AND WILL
ADJUST ONCE WE HAVE A BETTER HANDLE ON TIMING. ALSO EXPECTING SOME
GUSTY WINDS IN AND AROUND ANY THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY THIS EVENING. HIGH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE
TONIGHT FOR MORE FOG THROUGH THE OEVRNIGHT. WEST...SOUTHWEST SFC
WINDS AT AROUND 5-8 KTS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON, BECOMING
LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT. THEN INCREASE BACK UP AROUND 5KT
MONDAY.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

SHORT TERM...RAY
LONG TERM...JMW
AVIATION...RAY

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
402 PM EDT SUN JUN 21 2015

KYZ044-050>052-060-104-106-221100-
FLEMING-MONTGOMERY-BATH-ROWAN-MENIFEE-ELLIOTT-MORGAN-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...FLEMINGSBURG...CAMARGO...
JEFFERSONVILLE...MOUNT STERLING...OWINGSVILLE...MOREHEAD...
FRENCHBURG...SANDY HOOK...WEST LIBERTY
402 PM EDT SUN JUN 21 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN KENTUCKY.

.DAY ONE...LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. A FEW
STORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING MAY BECOME STRONG WITH
GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL POSSIBLE.

HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED LATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH
HEAT INDICES REACHING THE MID TO UPPER 90S.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

THERE WILL BE A PERSISTENT THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY...PRIMARILY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

IN ADDITION...A PROLONGED STRETCH OF HOT AND HUMID WEATHER IS
ANTICIPATED TO LAST THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY WITH HEAT INDICES
REACHING THE MID TO UPPER 90S EACH AFTERNOON.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY INSTANCES OF WIND DAMAGE OR
LARGE HAIL LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

KYZ058-059-068-069-079-080-083>088-107>120-221100-
ESTILL-POWELL-ROCKCASTLE-JACKSON-PULASKI-LAUREL-WAYNE-MCCREARY-
WHITLEY-KNOX-BELL-HARLAN-JOHNSON-WOLFE-MAGOFFIN-FLOYD-LEE-
BREATHITT-KNOTT-OWSLEY-PERRY-CLAY-LESLIE-LETCHER-MARTIN-PIKE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...IRVINE...RAVENNA...CLAY CITY...
STANTON...BRODHEAD...MOUNT VERNON...MCKEE...ANNVILLE...BURNSIDE...
SOMERSET...LONDON...MONTICELLO...STEARNS...WHITLEY CITY...
CORBIN...WILLIAMSBURG...BARBOURVILLE...MIDDLESBORO...PINEVILLE...
CUMBERLAND...HARLAN...PAINTSVILLE...CAMPTON...SALYERSVILLE...
PRESTONSBURG...WHEELWRIGHT...BEATTYVILLE...JACKSON...HINDMAN...
PIPPA PASSES...BOONEVILLE...HAZARD...MANCHESTER...HYDEN...
JENKINS...WHITESBURG...INEZ...COAL RUN...ELKHORN CITY...
PIKEVILLE...SOUTH WILLIAMSON
402 PM EDT SUN JUN 21 2015

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 323 IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN KENTUCKY.

.DAY ONE...LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. SOME
STORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING MAY BECOME SEVERE WITH
DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL POSSIBLE.

HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED LATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH
HEAT INDICES REACHING THE MID TO UPPER 90S.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

THERE WILL BE A PERSISTENT THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY...PRIMARILY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

IN ADDITION...A PROLONGED STRETCH OF HOT AND HUMID WEATHER IS
ANTICIPATED TO LAST THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY WITH HEAT INDICES
REACHING THE MID TO UPPER 90S EACH AFTERNOON.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY INSTANCES OF WIND DAMAGE OR
LARGE HAIL TODAY.

ABE/RAY

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
509 PM EDT SUN JUN 21 2015

KYZ080-086-116-212145-
CLAY-KNOX-LAUREL-
509 PM EDT SUN JUN 21 2015

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT CLAY...KNOX...LAUREL...

AT 508 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS OVER MAPLESVILLE...OR NEAR
LONDON...MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH AND DIME SIZE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
LONDON...MANCHESTER...GREEN ROAD...BUSH...BLACKWATER...GIRDLER...
SPRULE...COTTONGIN...HAVEN...PORTERSBURG...CANE CREEK...HOOKER...
TUTTLE...HOUSE...LAKE...HORSE CREEK JUNCTION...HERRON...SIBERT...
LESBAS AND LITTLETON.

THIS INCLUDES THE FOLLOWING HIGHWAYS...
 HAL ROGERS PARKWAY BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 2 AND 27.
 INTERSTATE 75 IN EAST CENTRAL KENTUCKY BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 35 AND
37.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM EDT FOR
SOUTHEASTERN KENTUCKY.

&&

LAT...LON 3706 8412 3723 8404 3715 8363 3689 8375
TIME...MOT...LOC 2108Z 291DEG 18KT 3712 8400

JP

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
534 PM EDT SUN JUN 21 2015

KYZ116-117-212200-
CLAY-LESLIE-
534 PM EDT SUN JUN 21 2015

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT CLAY...LESLIE...

AT 534 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS OVER LIPPS...OR 8 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF MANCHESTER...MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH AND HALF INCH HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
OGLE...QUEENDALE...ROARK...ESSIE...CREEKVILLE...SPRING CREEK...
GARDNER...SAYLOR...STINNETT...ASHER...LIPPS...PLANK...ASHERS FORK...
SANDY FORK...BRIGHTSHADE...ICE CLIFF...SPRUCE PINE...WARBRANCH...
MOZELLE AND HOSKINSTON.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...WHICH WILL
CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS. LOCALIZED FLOODING IS ALSO
POSSIBLE. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED ROADWAYS.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM EDT FOR
SOUTHEASTERN KENTUCKY.

&&

LAT...LON 3690 8348 3689 8349 3690 8351 3694 8351
      3696 8359 3696 8364 3701 8374 3712 8373
      3709 8333 3689 8344 3689 8345
TIME...MOT...LOC 2134Z 279DEG 27KT 3706 8367

JMW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
535 PM EDT SUN JUN 21 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0415 PM     TSTM WND DMG     WHITESBURG              37.12N 82.83W
06/21/2015                   LETCHER            KY   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TREE DOWN IN WHITESBURG.

&&

JCARICO

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
536 PM EDT SUN JUN 21 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0405 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 SE HYDEN              37.15N 83.36W
06/21/2015                   LESLIE             KY   911 CALL CENTER

            TREE DOWN ON HIGHWAY 80.

&&

JCARICO

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