Severe Thunderstorm Warning 55, NWS Jackson, KY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
347 PM EDT THU JUN 18 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 335 PM EDT THU JUN 18 2015

MUCH OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS WARM FRONT STRETCHED FROM THE MID ATLANTIC
TO WI AND COLD FRONT STRETCHED TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE CENTER TO THE SOUTH ACROSS THE WESTERN CAROLINAS. ALOFT
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO TRY AND HANG ON ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST WITH NORTHERN FRINGE NEARING THE OHIO RIVER THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. GIVEN IMPULSES RIDING THROUGH THE FLOW WILL
KEEP SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS TONIGHT AS RIDGING SUPPRESSES AND
FRONT BEGINS MOVING SOUTH AND EAST. GIVEN THE PWATS IN THE 1.6 OR
HIGHER AND DCAPE NEAR OR EXCEEDING 1000 J/KG...PRIMARY THREAT WILL
BE HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS.

MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT ON THE RIDGE CONTINUING TO SAG
SOUTH...COLD FRONT INCHING CLOSER...AND REMNANTS OF BILL WILL
ALSO EDGE EVER CLOSER THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR CONTINUED SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
THE REST OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WITH BEST CHANCES COVERAGE WISE
BEING IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION
CLOSER TO THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. OVERNIGHT PERIODS WILL ALSO
FEATURE BETTER CHANCES OF FOG PARTICULARLY IN VALLEY LOCATIONS AND
PLACES THAT RECEIVE RAINFALL. TEMPERATURE WISE WILL GENERALLY BE
NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD...HOWEVER INCREASED CLOUD
COVER SHOULD RESULT IN LOWER TEMPS THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY THAN HAS
BEEN SEEN.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 347 PM EDT THU JUN 18 2015

SATURDAY MORNING WILL START OFF WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
CENTER FROM TROPICAL STORM BILL REACHING THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY
ACROSS WESTERN KY. IT WILL WEAKEN SIGNIFICANTLY AS IT TRACKS
EASTWARD ALONG THE OHIO RIVER THROUGHOUT THE DAY...BUT WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING AMPLE AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE TO MUCH THE OHIO
RIVER VALLEY. EXPECT WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE CWA AS THE CENTER OF THE LOW PASSES OVER DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS...WITH ALL MODELS IN AGREEMENT THAT BETWEEN 0.5 AND 1.0
INCHES OF QPF POSSIBLE IN A 6 HOUR TIME FRAME. THIS TROUGH WILL
REACH THE EASTERN SEABOARD BY 18Z SUNDAY...WITH MOST OF THE
MOISTURE EXITING THE REGION. THE NAM SEEMS TO BE A BIT SLOWER ON
THIS TROUGH EXITING...WHICH WOULD RESULT IN MORE MOISTURE
LINGERING...SO WILL KEEP AT LEAST SOME POPS IN THE FORECAST IN
CASE THIS SLOWER SOLUTION PANS OUT. UNFORTUNATELY...A
STATIONARY/COLD FRONT BEHIND THE SURFACE LOW WILL SET UP JUST
NORTH OF THE OHIO RIVER DURING THE DAY SUNDAY...AND WILL BRING
ANOTHER ROUND OF CONTINUED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TO KY UNDER WARM SOUTHWEST FLOW AS IT SHIFTS SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...STRONG
RIDGING OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CONUS WILL SHIFT EASTWARD AND EXTEND
INTO THE SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. THIS WILL LEAVE THE OHIO
RIVER VALLEY IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...IN WHICH MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES
ARE EXPECTED TO TRAVERSE THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE RIDGE THEN SHIFT
SE TOWARDS OUR AREA. THIS WILL BRING CONTINUED OFF AND ON CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION. MORE SO...THIS EXPANSIVE
RIDGING TO OUR SOUTH WILL KEEP SW FLOW IN THE LOW LEVELS...AND WILL
CONTINUE TO BOOST TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMAL. EXPECT
TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB...WITH LOW TO MID 90S STILL EXPECTED BY
MIDWEEK NEXT WEEK. UNFORTUNATELY...THIS FLOW WILL ALSO PROMOTE
CONTINUED MOISTURE INFLUX OFF THE GULF OF MEXICO...SO HUMIDITY WILL
ALSO REMAIN HIGH.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 150 PM EDT THU JUN 18 2015

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON WITH
BEST COVERAGE GENERALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN TAF SITES THIS HOUR.
THESE ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MAINLY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS. RIGHT NOW WITH LOWER CONFIDENCE DID KEEP VCTS AT
MOST SITES...WHILE INTRODUCING TEMPO TS AT JKL. ONCE AGAIN
OVERNIGHT EXPECT FOG AND LOW CEILINGS TO SET IN PARTICULARLY IN
VALLEY LOCATIONS AND AREAS THAT RECEIVE RAIN. WINDS WILL BE
GENERALLY FROM THE WEST AT 5 TO 10 KTS...HOWEVER HIGHER GUSTS WILL
BE POSSIBLE UNDER STRONGER STORMS THAT DEVELOP ACROSS ANY TAF
SITES.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...DJ
LONG TERM...JMW
AVIATION...DJ

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
247 PM EDT THU JUN 18 2015

KYZ108-111-181930-
WOLFE-LEE-
247 PM EDT THU JUN 18 2015

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT WOLFE...LEE...

AT 247 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS OVER STANDING ROCK...OR 9
MILES NORTH OF BEATTYVILLE...MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
CAMPTON...ZOE...PINE RIDGE...WHISMAN...STANDING ROCK...LEECO...
GLENCAIRN...ZACHARIAH...FIXER...KOOMER RIDGE CAMPGROUND...GRANNIE...
VORTEX...HIGH FALLS...ROGERS...BOOTH...TORRENT...JENSON...CALABOOSE
AND GREELEY.

THIS INCLUDES BERT T. COMBS MOUNTAIN PARKWAY BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 37
AND 46.

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND
TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS...FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

&&

LAT...LON 3782 8350 3765 8349 3768 8378 3770 8378
      3772 8374 3772 8371 3778 8367
TIME...MOT...LOC 1847Z 272DEG 16KT 3771 8373

RAY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
250 PM EDT THU JUN 18 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0136 PM     TSTM WND DMG     3 NNE JACKSON           37.60N 83.36W
06/18/2015                   BREATHITT          KY   NWS EMPLOYEE

            HALF A DOZEN SHINGLES BLOWN OFF OF WEATHER OFFICE ROOF.

&&

JCARICO

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
321 PM EDT THU JUN 18 2015

KYZ059-108-111-181945-
WOLFE-POWELL-LEE-
321 PM EDT THU JUN 18 2015

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT WOLFE...POWELL...LEE...

AT 321 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS OVER PILOT...OR 9 MILES
NORTH OF BEATTYVILLE...MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 35 MPH AND PEA SIZE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
ZOE...PINE RIDGE...WHISMAN...STANDING ROCK...NATURAL BRIDGE S.P....
LEECO...GLENCAIRN...ZACHARIAH...FIXER...KOOMER RIDGE CAMPGROUND...
GRANNIE...HIGH FALLS...ROGERS...BOOTH...TORRENT AND JENSON.

THIS INCLUDES BERT T. COMBS MOUNTAIN PARKWAY BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 37
AND 42.

&&

LAT...LON 3764 8357 3769 8378 3770 8378 3772 8372
      3773 8372 3773 8375 3775 8378 3776 8377
      3781 8356
TIME...MOT...LOC 1921Z 263DEG 16KT 3772 8375

RAY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
336 PM EDT THU JUN 18 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0307 PM     TSTM WND DMG     PINE RIDGE              37.76N 83.61W
06/18/2015                   WOLFE              KY   911 CALL CENTER

            TREE BLOWN DOWN ONTO POWER LINE.

&&

JCARICO