Severe Thunderstorm Warning 43, NWS Jackson, KY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
351 PM EDT MON JUN 8 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 350 PM EDT MON JUN 8 2015

SURFACE ANALYSIS AS OF 19Z SHOWS A LINE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING TO TRACK EAST INTO SOUTHEASTERN
KENTUCKY. SOME STORMS ALONG THIS LINE HAVE BEEN MARGINALLY SEVERE
WITH SOME GUSTS AROUND 40 MPH. HAVE ADJUSTED POPS FOR THE FIRST
LINE OF STORMS AND THEN HI RES MODELS HAVE A SECOND LINE OF STORMS
MOVING THROUGH LATER THIS EVENING. BASED UPON TRENDS...IT SEEMS
THIS EARLIER LINE HAS REAPED A BUNCH OF THE AVAILABLE INSTABILITY
AND THIS WILL LIKELY LIMIT THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER LATER.
HENCE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH
00Z.

WITH A BIT OF CLEARING TONIGHT...SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED
AND HAVE PUT THIS INTO THE FORECAST. THE NAM AND HRRR WOULD
SUGGEST THE FRONT MOVING THROUGH BY 06Z TONIGHT AND THEN NEARLY
WASHING OUT ALONG THE VA AND TN BORDER. THIS WILL BRING AN END TO
PRECIP OVER THE AREA SHORTLY AFTER 06Z TONIGHT. HOWEVER...THE
BOUNDARY WILL STAY IN PLACE THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND BECOME
AN AREA FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE EXPECTED.

FOR TUESDAY NIGHT...THE FRONT BECOMES WASHED OUT ENOUGH AND SLIDES
FAR ENOUGH SOUTH THAT ENOUGH CLEARING WILL TAKE PLACE FOR ANOTHER
NIGHT OF FOG DEVELOPMENT WHICH MAY BE DENSE IN SOME OF THE DEEPER
VALLEYS.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM EDT MON JUN 8 2015

THE MODELS ARE GENERALLY IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE
EXTENDED. THEY ALL DEPICT A RETREAT OF THE EASTERN TROUGH FROM THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN RISING HEIGHTS
THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE COUNTRY AS A RATHER
UNREMARKABLE RIDGE GRADUALLY BUILDS THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK AND
INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL ALSO SERVE TO KEEP THE MORE ORGANIZED
CLUSTERS OF ENERGY WELL NORTH OF KENTUCKY WHILE OTHER WEAK BATCHES
SLIP THROUGH THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE RIDGE - INTO THE SOUTHERN OHIO
VALLEY. LATE IN THE PERIOD...INTO SUNDAY...A NORTHERN STREAM
TROUGH...STRONGEST IN THE 12Z ECMWF...WILL BRUSH PAST THE STATE AND
SOME BETTER ENERGY CLUSTERS MAY MAKE IT CLOSE ENOUGH TO EAST
KENTUCKY TO HAVE AN IMPACT FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEKEND. IN
THE WAKE OF THIS NORTHERN WAVE...THE SOUTHEAST RIDGE WOULD THEN
FURTHER BUILD OVER THE AREA BUT LIKELY NOT OF SUFFICIENT STRENGTH TO
SHUT DOWN ANY CONVECTION BENEATH IT. GIVEN THE BROAD MODEL
AGREEMENT...A BLENDED SOLUTION APPEARS REASONABLE.

SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE A COLD FRONT DISSIPATING WELL SOUTH OF
KENTUCKY AT MID WEEK WHILE A DRIER AIR MASS AND RATHER WEAK SFC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL KEEP MOST OF THE ACTIVITY AT BAY THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING. HOWEVER...IT DOES APPEAR THAT ENOUGH RETURN FLOW MOISTURE
AND HEAT WILL SEEP INTO THE AREA FOR FRIDAY TO ALLOW FOR SOME AIR
MASS CONVECTION BY AFTERNOON. THE DIURNAL CYCLE WILL THEN DOMINATE
THROUGH THE BULK OF THE WEEKEND AS ANY SYNOPTIC SYSTEMS STAY TO THE
NORTH OF THE AREA. THAT MAY CHANGE LATER SUNDAY...THOUGH...AS A COLD
FRONT TRIES TO SLIP CLOSE ENOUGH TO OUR NORTHERN BORDER TO HAVE AN
IMPACT. THIS BOUNDARY THEN LINGERS NEARBY...LIKELY HELPING TO
TRIGGER CONVECTION THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY. IT DOES APPEAR THAT
TYPICAL SUMMER-TIME HEAT WILL BE UPON US THROUGH MUCH OF THE
PERIOD...SOME 90S WILL BE POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY...WITH RELIEF
OFFERED BY SCATTERED CONVECTION STARTING FRIDAY AND LASTING
THROUGH MONDAY...MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

THE CR GRID BLEND CAME IN REASONABLY WELL WITH MOST ADJUSTMENTS MADE
TO ACCOUNT FOR A DIURNAL CYCLE DOMINATED PATTERN OF CONVECTION FOR
THE END OF THIS WEEK AND INTO THE START OF THE WEEKEND. AS FOR
TEMPERATURES...DID ADJUST THE LOWS TO ACCOUNT FOR TERRAIN EFFECTS
EACH NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 210 PM EDT MON JUN 8 2015

EXPECT TWO SEPARATE LINES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA THROUGH THIS EVENING AND INTO TONIGHT.
SJS...JKL...AND LOZ WILL EXPERIENCE SOME BELOW IFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH 21Z WITH THE LOW CIGS AND LOW VIS. AFTER THIS...A SECOND
LINE OF STORMS WILL MOVE THROUGH BETWEEN 21Z AND 00Z BRINGING TAF
SITES DOWN TO FIELD MINS FOR A FEW HOURS. WINDS WILL LARGELY BE
SOUTHWEST WITH SOME GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS AT TIMES BUT WINDS WITHIN
THUNDERSTORMS MAY GUST UP TO 30 KNOTS AT TIMES. WINDS WILL THEN
BECOME LIGHT AFTER 06Z TONIGHT WITH SOME CLEARING SKIES AS WELL.
THIS WILL LEAD TO SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT TOWARDS DAWN TOMORROW
MORNING.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...SHALLENBERGER
LONG TERM...GREIF
AVIATION...SHALLENBERGER

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
407 PM EDT MON JUN 8 2015

KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-104-106>117-119-092315-
FLEMING-MONTGOMERY-BATH-ROWAN-ESTILL-POWELL-MENIFEE-ROCKCASTLE-
JACKSON-PULASKI-LAUREL-ELLIOTT-MORGAN-JOHNSON-WOLFE-MAGOFFIN-
FLOYD-LEE-BREATHITT-KNOTT-OWSLEY-PERRY-CLAY-LESLIE-MARTIN-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...FLEMINGSBURG...CAMARGO...
JEFFERSONVILLE...MOUNT STERLING...OWINGSVILLE...MOREHEAD...
IRVINE...RAVENNA...CLAY CITY...STANTON...FRENCHBURG...BRODHEAD...
MOUNT VERNON...MCKEE...ANNVILLE...BURNSIDE...SOMERSET...LONDON...
SANDY HOOK...WEST LIBERTY...PAINTSVILLE...CAMPTON...
SALYERSVILLE...PRESTONSBURG...WHEELWRIGHT...BEATTYVILLE...
JACKSON...HINDMAN...PIPPA PASSES...BOONEVILLE...HAZARD...
MANCHESTER...HYDEN...INEZ
407 PM EDT MON JUN 8 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN KENTUCKY.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

EXPECT SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING. SOME
THUNDERSTORMS COULD BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE WITH DAMAGING
WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN THE MAIN THREATS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY MAINLY IN SOUTHEASTERN
KENTUCKY AND AGAIN FROM FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY ACROSS ALL OF
EASTERN KENTUCKY...MAINLY DURING EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO REPORT ANY INSTANCES OF DAMAGING WINDS
THIS EVENING.

KYZ083>088-118-120-092315-
WAYNE-MCCREARY-WHITLEY-KNOX-BELL-HARLAN-LETCHER-PIKE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MONTICELLO...STEARNS...WHITLEY CITY...
CORBIN...WILLIAMSBURG...BARBOURVILLE...MIDDLESBORO...PINEVILLE...
CUMBERLAND...HARLAN...JENKINS...WHITESBURG...COAL RUN...
ELKHORN CITY...PIKEVILLE...SOUTH WILLIAMSON
407 PM EDT MON JUN 8 2015

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 277 IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN KENTUCKY.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

EXPECT SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING. SOME
THUNDERSTORMS COULD BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE WITH DAMAGING
WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN THE MAIN THREATS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY MAINLY IN SOUTHEASTERN
KENTUCKY AND AGAIN FROM FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY ACROSS ALL OF
EASTERN KENTUCKY...MAINLY DURING EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO REPORT ANY INSTANCES OF DAMAGING WINDS
THIS EVENING.

SHALLENBERGER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
105 PM EDT MON JUN 08 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0102 PM     HAIL             MANCHESTER              37.15N 83.77W
06/08/2015  E0.25 INCH       CLAY               KY   TRAINED SPOTTER

            PEA SIZED HAIL FALLING IN DOWNTOWN MANCHESTER.

&&

JCARICO

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
107 PM EDT MON JUN 8 2015

KYZ086-115>117-081730-
CLAY-KNOX-LESLIE-PERRY-
107 PM EDT MON JUN 8 2015

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT CLAY...KNOX...LESLIE...PERRY...

AT 106 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS OVER PIGEONROOST...OR NEAR
MANCHESTER...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH AND PEA SIZE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
MANCHESTER...HYDEN...BUCKHORN...SIDELL...BEAR BRANCH...SPRULE...
COTTONGIN...BUCKHORN LAKE S.P....KRYPTON...WENDOVER...HAVEN...MOSLEY
BEND...HOOKER...HOUSE...PANCO...HORSE CREEK JUNCTION...HERRON...
ENLINE...SIBERT AND SPRING CREEK.

THIS INCLUDES HAL ROGERS PARKWAY BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 11 AND 53.

&&

LAT...LON 3704 8389 3705 8387 3707 8389 3709 8386
      3712 8389 3711 8392 3714 8394 3730 8359
      3726 8353 3727 8352 3729 8355 3732 8355
      3737 8344 3734 8340 3734 8338 3736 8336
      3714 8324 3697 8385
TIME...MOT...LOC 1706Z 246DEG 40KT 3710 8381

DJ

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
133 PM EDT MON JUN 8 2015

KYZ109-112-081800-
BREATHITT-MAGOFFIN-
133 PM EDT MON JUN 8 2015

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT BREATHITT...MAGOFFIN...

AT 132 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS OVER STEVENSON...OR NEAR
JACKSON...MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH AND PEA SIZE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
JACKSON...SALYERSVILLE...MASON...PRESS...CORNELIA...SEWELL...
BROWNLOW...ORCHARD...QUICKSAND...DAISYDELL...PORTSMOUTH...GUNLOCK...
SEILTZ...MARSHALLVILLE...LOST CREEK...CANOE...EVANSTON...COPLAND...
VANCLEVE AND GYPSY.

THIS INCLUDES BERT T. COMBS MOUNTAIN PARKWAY BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 70
AND 76.

&&

LAT...LON 3780 8297 3771 8294 3767 8294 3765 8292
      3754 8289 3751 8304 3752 8305 3752 8309
      3750 8310 3743 8348 3765 8341 3768 8332
      3767 8326 3770 8325 3771 8326 3781 8299
TIME...MOT...LOC 1732Z 250DEG 34KT 3760 8328

DJ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
202 PM EDT MON JUN 08 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0202 PM     HAIL             2 N PRESTONSBURG        37.70N 82.77W
06/08/2015  E0.25 INCH       FLOYD              KY   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

JCARICO

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
318 PM EDT MON JUN 8 2015

KYZ085>088-116-081945-
BELL-HARLAN-CLAY-WHITLEY-KNOX-
318 PM EDT MON JUN 8 2015

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT BELL...HARLAN...CLAY...
WHITLEY...KNOX...

AT 318 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS OVER BRYANTS STORE...OR
NEAR BARBOURVILLE...MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 30 MPH AND PEA SIZE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
BARBOURVILLE...PINEVILLE...GREEN ROAD...CALVIN...CLATE...GIRDLER...
STONY FORK JUNCTION...KING...EMMANUEL...PONZA...BRUSH CREEK...
ARTEMUS...CANNON...EROSE...TROSPER...HINKLE...BIMBLE...SPRING
CREEK...FLAT LICK AND BALKAN.

THIS INCLUDES THE FOLLOWING HIGHWAYS...
 U.S. HIGHWAY 25 EAST IN BELL COUNTY BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 8 AND 18.
 U.S. HIGHWAY 25 EAST IN KNOX COUNTY BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 1 AND 17.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM EDT FOR
SOUTHEASTERN KENTUCKY.

&&

LAT...LON 3663 8409 3687 8408 3710 8354 3708 8355
      3707 8354 3704 8355 3702 8352 3693 8351
      3691 8349 3689 8349 3671 8344
TIME...MOT...LOC 1918Z 251DEG 36KT 3679 8392

DJ