Severe Thunderstorm Warning 148, NWS Jackson, KY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
542 PM EDT SAT JUL 18 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 542 PM EDT SAT JUL 18 2015

ONLY A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE CURRENTLY IMPACTING THE
NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR FORECAST AREA. THESE STORMS
HAVE MAINLY BEEN RAIN PRODUCERS...DROPPING AN INCH TO AN INCH AND
A HALF IN AN HOUR. EXPECT THESE STORMS TO CONTINUE PULSING IN
INTENSITY BEFORE DIMINISHING WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING LATER
THIS EVENING. WITH THIS IN MIND...FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK SO
ONLY NEEDED TO FRESHEN UP WITH GRIDS TO REFLECT RECENT OBS. SENT
UPDATED GRIDS TO NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 PM EDT SAT JUL 18 2015

WITH THE UNSTABLE HEAT AND HUMIDITY ACROSS THE AREA...POP UP SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED AND SPREAD ACROSS MUCH OF THE STATE
AND NEIGHBORING CWA/S. ANY LLVL BOUNDARY THAT REMAINED FROM THIS
MORNING IS NOW OFF TO OUR SE...SO THERE IS LITTLE ORGANIZATION TO
THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE STATE. MAINLY GARDEN
VARIETY POP UPS WITH SHORT LIFE SPANS AND BRIEF IMPACTS. LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING WILL ALLOW ANY ONGOING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
DISSIPATE DURING THE EVENING. UNFORTUNATELY...MODELS HAVE HAD A BAD
HANDLE ON THE SCATTERED PRECIP DURING THE DAY...SO DID NOT PUT MUCH
CONFIDENCE IN THEM FOR THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING EITHER. HIGH PRESSURE
TO OUR SW WILL TAKE HOLD OVERNIGHT...WITH CLOUDS ALSO EXPECT TO
DISSIPATE SOMEWHAT ACROSS THE REGION. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF
LLVL MOISTURE STILL ACROSS THE AREA...AND THE CALM/CLEARING
CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT...STILL EXPECTING SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT
ACROSS THE CWA...ESPECIALLY IN THE VALLEYS. KEPT WITH PREVIOUS
FORECAST MENTION OF AREAS OF DENSE FOG...ESPECIALLY IN THE VALLEY
LOCATIONS AND NEAR BODIES OF WATER.

AS WE HEAD INTO THE DAY SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN
CONTROL. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES VERY WARM...AND WITH A
CONTINUED PUSH OF GULF MOISTURE INTO THE REGION...WILL LEAD TO HIGH
HUMIDITY VALUES AND HEAT INDEXES TOPPING OUT JUST ABOVE 100 ONCE
MORE. BY AFTERNOON...WINDS WILL BECOME MORE WESTERLY AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT WHICH WILL BE LOCATED JUST NW OF THE OHIO
RIVER. THIS APPROACHING FRONT WILL LEAD TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE CWA...BUT UPSLOPE FLOW MAY
ALLOW FOR A HIGHER CONCENTRATION ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

BETTER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SOON TO FOLLOW
AS THE COLD FRONT QUICKLY MAKES IT TO THE OHIO RIVER SUNDAY
EVENING...AND CONTINUES TO SHIFT SE THROUGH THE NIGHT...BEFORE
BECOMING STALLED OUT IN A W TO E ORIENTATION DURING THE DAY MONDAY.
STILL LOOKING AT IMPRESSIVE CAPE VALUES BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON...TOPPING OUT BETWEEN 3 AND 4K J/KG. PWATS ARE STILL OVER
2 INCHES...SO ANY STORMS COULD PRODUCE SOME POTENTIAL HEAVY
RAINERS...HOWEVER...LIFTED INDEXES CONTINUE TO BECOME MORE
UNIMPRESSIVE...FROM -10 TO -11 YESTERDAY...NOW DOWN TO -7 TO -8.
ALSO...WINDS ARE QUITE UNIMPRESSIVE...WITH LITTLE DIRECTIONAL OR
SPEED SHEER. AS A RESULT...STILL THINK WE COULD SEE SOME DECENT
STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...BUT SEVERE THREAT IS DIMINISHING
AS WE HEAD CLOSER TO THE EVENT.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 253 PM EDT SAT JUL 18 2015

A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL BE PUSHING ACROSS THE AREA EARLY NEXT
WEEK IN RESPONSE TO A SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND
OHIO VALLEY. THERE IS NOT GREAT MODEL AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING FOR
THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT...BUT LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE FRONT
WILL BE SOUTH OF THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT OR EARLY WEDNESDAY. RAIN
CHANCES WILL DECREASE BY MIDWEEK AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT.
HOWEVER...THERE WILL REMAIN A LOW CHANCE FOR AIR MASS THUNDERSTORMS
MAINLY EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING THROUGH MID WEEK AND INTO NEXT
WEEKEND.

THE MEAN OVERALL PATTERN WILL SEE RATHER FLAT RIDGING ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY EARLY IN THE PERIOD.
IN RESPONSE TO SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVING INTO THE WESTERN U.S. THE
SOUTHERN RIDGE WILL BUILD NORTH ACROSS THE PLAINS BY MID WEEK. WE
WILL REMAIN ON THE NORTHEAST PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE ON INTO NEXT
WEEKEND. AFTER A SLIGHT COOL DOWN IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE
EARLY IN THE WEEK...TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN BE ON THE INCREASE AS WE
MOVE INTO THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 134 PM EDT SAT JUL 18 2015

A FEW POP UP SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE
THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. AS OF NOW...THEY ARE
NOT IMPACTING ANY TAF SITES...AND GIVEN THEIR LIMITED COVERAGE
AREA AND LIFESPAN...CHOSE NOT TO INCLUDE IN TAFS AT THIS TIME. IF
A SHOWER DOES IMPACT A TAF SITE...EXPECT ONLY A BRIEF REDUCTION
IN VISIBILITY. AS WE LOSE DAYTIME HEATING...THESE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DISSIPATE AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL TAKE CONTROL.
THIS WILL ALLOW SKIES TO CLEAR SOME...BUT WILL ALSO TRAP LLVL
MOISTURE NEAR THE SURFACE AND LEAD TO SOME DECENT FOG
DEVELOPMENT...ESPECIALLY IN THE VALLEYS. THE FOG MAY LIFT ONTO THE
RIDGES AND AFFECT THE TAF SITES BEFORE DISSIPATING NEAR AND JUST
AFTER DAWN SUNDAY. AS SUCH...INCLUDED SOME IFR AND POSSIBLE LIFR
CONDITIONS FOR A COUPLE HOURS NEAR DAWN IN THE TAF. FOR
TOMORROW...HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL CONTINUE...WITH SOME AFTERNOON
CONVECTION POSSIBLE ONCE MORE...ESPECIALLY IN THE FAR EASTERN
PORTION OF THE STATE. GIVEN THE LOW CONFIDENCE ON TIMING AND
LOCATION...CHOSE TO KEEP OUT OF TAFS. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE BOARD WITH GENERALLY LIGHT WSW WINDS.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

UPDATE...JVM
SHORT TERM...JMW
LONG TERM...SBH
AVIATION...JMW

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
303 PM EDT SAT JUL 18 2015

KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120-191200-
FLEMING-MONTGOMERY-BATH-ROWAN-ESTILL-POWELL-MENIFEE-ROCKCASTLE-
JACKSON-PULASKI-LAUREL-WAYNE-MCCREARY-WHITLEY-KNOX-BELL-HARLAN-
ELLIOTT-MORGAN-JOHNSON-WOLFE-MAGOFFIN-FLOYD-LEE-BREATHITT-KNOTT-
OWSLEY-PERRY-CLAY-LESLIE-LETCHER-MARTIN-PIKE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...FLEMINGSBURG...CAMARGO...
JEFFERSONVILLE...MOUNT STERLING...OWINGSVILLE...MOREHEAD...
IRVINE...RAVENNA...CLAY CITY...STANTON...FRENCHBURG...BRODHEAD...
MOUNT VERNON...MCKEE...ANNVILLE...BURNSIDE...SOMERSET...LONDON...
MONTICELLO...STEARNS...WHITLEY CITY...CORBIN...WILLIAMSBURG...
BARBOURVILLE...MIDDLESBORO...PINEVILLE...CUMBERLAND...HARLAN...
SANDY HOOK...WEST LIBERTY...PAINTSVILLE...CAMPTON...
SALYERSVILLE...PRESTONSBURG...WHEELWRIGHT...BEATTYVILLE...
JACKSON...HINDMAN...PIPPA PASSES...BOONEVILLE...HAZARD...
MANCHESTER...HYDEN...JENKINS...WHITESBURG...INEZ...COAL RUN...
ELKHORN CITY...PIKEVILLE...SOUTH WILLIAMSON
303 PM EDT SAT JUL 18 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN KENTUCKY.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS EVENING.

AREAS OF DENSE FOG WILL DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN THE
VALLEYS AND NEAR BODIES OF WATER. PLEASE USE CAUTION IF DRIVING
BEFORE DAWN...AS VISIBILITIES COULD BE QUICKLY REDUCED TO A
QUARTER MILE OR LESS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

LOCALLY DENSE FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE VALLEYS EARLY SUNDAY.

HEAT INDICES WILL PEAK BETWEEN 97 AND 102 DEGREES SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES FROM SUNDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

JMW/SBH

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
313 PM EDT SAT JUL 18 2015

KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120-191000-
FLEMING-MONTGOMERY-BATH-ROWAN-ESTILL-POWELL-MENIFEE-ROCKCASTLE-
JACKSON-PULASKI-LAUREL-WAYNE-MCCREARY-WHITLEY-KNOX-BELL-HARLAN-
ELLIOTT-MORGAN-JOHNSON-WOLFE-MAGOFFIN-FLOYD-LEE-BREATHITT-KNOTT-
OWSLEY-PERRY-CLAY-LESLIE-LETCHER-MARTIN-PIKE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...FLEMINGSBURG...CAMARGO...
JEFFERSONVILLE...MOUNT STERLING...OWINGSVILLE...MOREHEAD...
IRVINE...RAVENNA...CLAY CITY...STANTON...FRENCHBURG...BRODHEAD...
MOUNT VERNON...MCKEE...ANNVILLE...BURNSIDE...SOMERSET...LONDON...
MONTICELLO...STEARNS...WHITLEY CITY...CORBIN...WILLIAMSBURG...
BARBOURVILLE...MIDDLESBORO...PINEVILLE...CUMBERLAND...HARLAN...
SANDY HOOK...WEST LIBERTY...PAINTSVILLE...CAMPTON...
SALYERSVILLE...PRESTONSBURG...WHEELWRIGHT...BEATTYVILLE...
JACKSON...HINDMAN...PIPPA PASSES...BOONEVILLE...HAZARD...
MANCHESTER...HYDEN...JENKINS...WHITESBURG...INEZ...COAL RUN...
ELKHORN CITY...PIKEVILLE...SOUTH WILLIAMSON
313 PM EDT SAT JUL 18 2015

...HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS EXPECTED AGAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON...

HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB TO AROUND 90...OR JUST
ABOVE...AGAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THESE TEMPERATURES...COMBINED
WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S...WILL YIELD HEAT
INDICES IN THE 95 TO 105 DEGREE RANGE. PLEASE TAKE PRECAUTIONS IF
YOU ARE PLANNING TO BE OUTSIDE THIS WEEKEND. DRINK PLENTY OF WATER
AND LIMIT EXPOSURE TO THE HEAT.

KAS/JMW

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
551 PM EDT SAT JUL 18 2015

KYZ044-052-182215-
ROWAN-FLEMING-
551 PM EDT SAT JUL 18 2015

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF ROWAN AND FLEMING
COUNTIES...

AT 550 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS OVER MUSES MILLS...OR 10
MILES NORTH OF MOREHEAD...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

WINDS OF 30 TO 40 MPH AND DIME SIZE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
PLUMMERS LANDING...HILDA...WALTZ...MUSES MILLS AND TRIPLETT.

&&

LAT...LON 3840 8347 3838 8345 3839 8342 3839 8341
      3835 8337 3832 8336 3832 8334 3822 8353
      3835 8358 3840 8350
TIME...MOT...LOC 2150Z 323DEG 14KT 3833 8349

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