Severe Thunderstorm Warning 115, NWS Jackson, KY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1226 PM EDT MON JUL 13 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1226 PM EDT MON JUL 13 2015

WELL ESTABLISHED CONVECTIVE SYSTEM WAS OVER CENTRAL INDIANA AND
MOVING SOUTHEAST TOWARD OUR AREA AT MID DAY. ENVIRONMENTAL WINDS
ALOFT WERE NOT IMPRESSIVE...BUT INSTABILITY WAS BECOMING QUITE
HIGH. 11 AM SURFACE BASED CAPE WAS GENERALLY IN THE NEIGHBORHOOD
OF 3-4K AND LIFTED INDICES WERE AROUND -6. WITH ADDITONAL HEATING
TAKING PLACE BEFORE THE SYSTEM ARRIVES...IT SHOULD HAVE HIGH
INSTABILITY FOR FUEL. WILL LOOK FOR MAINLY A WIND THREAT AS IT
MOVES THROUGH. BEST ESTIMATE IS THAT IT WILL ENTER OUR NORTHERN-
MOST COUNTY...FLEMING...BETWEEN 230 PM AND 3 PM...AND PROGRESS
SOUTH TO THE TN LINE BY ABOUT 6 PM.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 839 AM EDT MON JUL 13 2015

FRESHENED UP THE HOURLY TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS ACCORDING TO
THE LATEST TRENDS IN OBSERVATIONS. CONVECTION IS STARTING TO PUSH
SOUTHEAST OUT OF IL...SO WILL HANG ONTO THE CURRENT POP TIMING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 AM EDT MON JUL 13 2015

A VERY ACTIVE AND STORMY PERIOD IS IN STORE FOR THE SHORT TERM AS
A SERIES OF SHORT WAVE TROUGHS MOVE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO
VALLEY REGIONS...SHARPENING UP A LONG WAVE TROUGH THAT WILL
RESIDE ACROSS THE EASTERN SEABOARD BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.
SEVERAL COMPLEXES OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL TAKE AIM AT EASTERN
KENTUCKY...BRINGING AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT...INCLUDING DAMAGING WINDS...FLASH FLOODING...LARGE
HAIL...AND ISOLATED TORNADOES.

FOR TODAY...A COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL INITIATE TO THE
NORTHWEST...AND DIVE SOUTHEAST TOWARDS EASTERN KENTUCKY FOR THE
SECOND HALF OF THE DAY. THE GREATEST THREAT FROM THESE STORMS WILL
BE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...AS THE COLD POOL LOOKS TO DOMINATE THE
ENVIRONMENTAL SHEAR...ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE A FEW BOWING SEGMENTS
IN WHICH SHEAR MAY BE MORE BALANCED FOR A TIME...YIELDING A QLCS
AND ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT. THERE IS ALSO A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SOME
DISCRETE CELLS INITIATING OUT AHEAD OF THE OUTFLOW...WHICH COULD
YIELD SOME LARGE HAIL POTENTIALLY.

ONCE THIS ACTIVITY BARRELS THROUGH EASTERN KENTUCKY THIS AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY THIS EVENING...THERE IS MORE UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHERE
MCS ACTIVITY WILL RE-GENERATE. HIGHER RESOLUTION GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THAT MULTIPLE MCS ACTIVITY MAY BUILD MORE TO THE
WEST...WHERE BETTER INSTABILITY WILL HANG ON. AS SUCH...HAVE ONLY
CARRIED CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS...WITH HIGHER PROBABILITIES WEST OF
I-75.

ON TUESDAY...BETTER FORCING WILL ARRIVE AS A MORE STOUT SHORT WAVE
TROUGH ROTATES THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY...SENDING A COLD FRONT
THROUGH OUR AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON. CAPE AND SHEAR PROFILES
ARE SUPPORTIVE OF DISCRETE CELLS...WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS THE MAIN THREAT...WITH A HIGHER TORNADO THREAT COMPARED TO
TODAY GIVEN THE BETTER LOW LEVEL SHEAR PROFILES. HAVE POPS
GENERALLY INCREASING DURING THE DAY...PEAKING IN THE AFTERNOON AS
THE FRONT SLIDES ON THROUGH THE AREA. GIVEN THE MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF
STORMS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD...HAVE HOISTED A FLASH FLOOD
WATCH FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM EDT MON JUL 13 2015

MODELS SEEM TO BE IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS
SWINGING ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND EASTERN KY TUESDAY NIGHT. THE
UPPER HIGH THAT IS CENTERED NEAR THE ARKLATEX REGION WILL SLIGHTLY
RETROGRADE EAST BEHIND WAVE. MODELS THEN SUGGEST LATER IN THE
PERIOD THE UPPER HIGH WILL MOVE BACK WEST. THE EASTWARD
PROGRESSION WILL BRING HIGHER HEIGHTS ACROSS THE REGION. WHILE
MODELS DO HAVE A FEW SUBTLE WAVES MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW...THESE
DO NO LOOK NEAR AS POTENT AS THE SHORTWAVES WE ARE EXPECTING TODAY
AND TUESDAY.

THIS PERIOD WILL BE PRESENTED WITH A BIT MORE SEASONAL PATTERN
OVERALL. NO MAJOR DISCERNIBLE SURFACE FEATURES WITH EXCEPTION OF
A WARM FRONT THAT SLIDES THROUGH FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. THIS WILL
AID INTRODUCING A WARM MOIST AIR MASS INTO THE REGION THROUGH THE
LATTER PORTION OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. THEREFORE DID UP TEMPS A
BIT FROM THE BLEND GIVEN HEIGHT RISES AND CPC 6-10 DAY PUTTING A
50 TO 60 PERCENT CHANCE ABOVE NORMAL. THEY MAY PERHAPS STILL BE A
BIT LOW DEPENDING ON ANY STORMS AND EXTENT OF THERMAL RIDGE
THROUGH THE PERIOD. GIVEN LITTLE IN THE WAY OF LIFTING...WITH NO
MAJOR FEATURES AND WEAK FLOW ALOFT HAVE KEPT POPS THROUGH THE
PERIOD IN THE SLIGHT TO CHANCE RANGE. MORE IN THE WAY OF DIURNALLY
DRIVEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 839 AM EDT MON JUL 13 2015

IFR FOG/STRATUS WILL BURN OFF THROUGH 14Z. ALL EYES THEN TURN
TOWARDS A LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY
APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON. FOW NOW...HAVE
INCLUDED TEMPO GROUPS BETWEEN 18 AND 00Z FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST WITHIN THE TAFS...WITH NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO
AROUND 45 KTS...ALTHOUGH 50 KTS MAY BE MORE REASONABLE.
CONDITIONS WITHIN THE WORST PART OF THE LINE WILL ALSO LIKELY DROP
DOWN TO IFR OR WORSE. GENERAL IMPROVMENT IS EXPECTED THEREAFTER...
ALTHOUGH STORMS WILL STILL AT LEAST BE WITHIN THE VICINITY OF THE
AIRPORTS.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT FOR KYZ044-050>052-
058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120.

&&

UPDATE...HAL
SHORT TERM...GEOGERIAN
LONG TERM...DJ
AVIATION...GEOGERIAN

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
516 AM EDT MON JUL 13 2015

KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120-141100-
FLEMING-MONTGOMERY-BATH-ROWAN-ESTILL-POWELL-MENIFEE-ROCKCASTLE-
JACKSON-PULASKI-LAUREL-WAYNE-MCCREARY-WHITLEY-KNOX-BELL-HARLAN-
ELLIOTT-MORGAN-JOHNSON-WOLFE-MAGOFFIN-FLOYD-LEE-BREATHITT-KNOTT-
OWSLEY-PERRY-CLAY-LESLIE-LETCHER-MARTIN-PIKE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...FLEMINGSBURG...CAMARGO...
JEFFERSONVILLE...MOUNT STERLING...OWINGSVILLE...MOREHEAD...
IRVINE...RAVENNA...CLAY CITY...STANTON...FRENCHBURG...BRODHEAD...
MOUNT VERNON...MCKEE...ANNVILLE...BURNSIDE...SOMERSET...LONDON...
MONTICELLO...STEARNS...WHITLEY CITY...CORBIN...WILLIAMSBURG...
BARBOURVILLE...MIDDLESBORO...PINEVILLE...CUMBERLAND...HARLAN...
SANDY HOOK...WEST LIBERTY...PAINTSVILLE...CAMPTON...
SALYERSVILLE...PRESTONSBURG...WHEELWRIGHT...BEATTYVILLE...
JACKSON...HINDMAN...PIPPA PASSES...BOONEVILLE...HAZARD...
MANCHESTER...HYDEN...JENKINS...WHITESBURG...INEZ...COAL RUN...
ELKHORN CITY...PIKEVILLE...SOUTH WILLIAMSON
516 AM EDT MON JUL 13 2015

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM NOON EDT TODAY THROUGH LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN KENTUCKY.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. THERE IS A
GOOD CHANCE THAT A LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE
THE MAIN THREAT...WITH ISOLATED INSTANCES OF LARGE HAIL AND
TORNADOES POSSIBLE. ADDITIONALLY...LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING WILL
ALSO BE POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AT TIMES FROM TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY...AND AGAIN FROM FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. SEVERE STORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY. DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...LARGE
HAIL...ISOLATED TORNADOES...AND FLASH FLOODING WILL ALL BE
POSSIBLE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

GEOGERIAN