Severe Thunderstorm Warning 110, NWS Jackson, KY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1144 AM EDT FRI JUL 10 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1144 AM EDT FRI JUL 10 2015

BOWING LINE OF STORMS WAS OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL PART OF THE
STATE LATE THIS MORNING AND HEADING EAST. UPDATE WAS SENT TO
INCLUDE POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS FOR OUR NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
COUNTIES. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH WAS ALSO ISSUED FOR NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL COUNTIES FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING TO LINE UP WITH
SURROUNDING OFFICES. IF TRAINING STORMS WERE TO DEVELOP...FLOODING
WOULD BE A CONCERN. HOWEVER...OUTSIDE OF THIS...FLOW ALOFT IS
ALLOWING A RAPID MOVEMENT OF CELLS WHICH LIMITS THE THREAT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 745 AM EDT FRI JUL 10 2015

PUSHED A MINOR UPDATE TO THE GRIDS UP TO THE WEB AND NDFD SERVERS
THAT MAINLY FOCUSED ON NEAR TERM POP/FOG ADJUSTMENTS AND TOUCHING
UP THE T/TD GRIDS PER THE LATEST OBS AND TRENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM EDT FRI JUL 10 2015

O6Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A COMPLEX PATTERN WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
LYING WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE STATE WHILE
A MESOSCALE BOUNDARY IS RUNNING THROUGH THE HEART OF EASTERN
KENTUCKY WHERE MOISTURE IS POOLED AND BEING TRANSPORTED INTO THE
AREA. THANKFULLY THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS BOUNDARY HAS
MOSTLY FADED OUT ASIDE FROM A FEW CELLS EXITING KENTUCKY TO THE
EAST AND SOME TO THE WEST OF THE CWA. BEFORE THE WESTERN ONES
MOSTLY DISSIPATED THEY WERE MOVING NORTHEAST RATHER THAN EAST
SUGGESTING THAT THE BOUNDARY MAY BE IN THE PROCESS OF LIFTING.
OTHERWISE...ANOTHER MUGGY NIGHT IS COMING TO AN END WITH TEMPS AND
DEW POINTS CURRENTLY IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S. SKIES ARE
MOSTLY CLEAR TO THE SOUTH...BUT SOME LOW AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS ARE
LINGERING IN THE NORTH...KEEPING THE FOG THERE TO THE PATCHY
CATEGORY IN MOST PLACES. WINDS THROUGH THE AREA ARE GENERALLY
LIGHT FROM THE SOUTHWEST.

WHILE THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE PATTERN ALOFT
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM...THEY DIFFER ENOUGH ON THE SMALLER SCALE
DETAILS THAT CONFIDENCE IN ANY PARTICULAR SOLUTION IS BELOW
AVERAGE. THEY AGREE THAT A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH
STRENGTHENS AND SLIDES WESTWARD TODAY AND TONIGHT WHILE EAST
KENTUCKY STAYS ON THE NORTHEAST FRINGE. THIS POSITION WILL KEEP
THE AREA PRIMED FOR ACTIVE WEATHER AS A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES TRACK
JUST NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE MOST
SIGNIFICANT ONE OF THESE WILL CUT THROUGH NORTHERN KENTUCKY THIS
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. THE NAM SOLUTION TAKES ITS VERSION
OF THIS A BIT FURTHER SOUTH THAN THE ECMWF AND THE GFS. TRENDS
SEEM TO SUPPORT THIS PATH SO HAVE LEANED TOWARD ITS SOLUTION FOR
WEATHER DETAILS TODAY INTO SATURDAY.

SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE A CONTINUATION OF OUR STORMY...
WARM...AND HUMID WEATHER. THE SFC BOUNDARY TO THE NORTH AND OLD
OUTFLOWS ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY SHOULD MAKE FOR AN ACTIVE DAY
AND EVENING ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA. SPECIFICALLY...THE HRRR AND
NAM12 PLOW A SFC WAVE...ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID LEVEL ONE...
THROUGH NORTHERN KENTUCKY LATER THIS AFTERNOON...WITH THE HRRR
SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN THE NAM12. THIS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN AN AREA
OF SHOWERS AND STORMS TRACKING INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY BY EARLY
AFTERNOON AND ACROSS THE AREA IN A FEW HOURS. THESE STORMS WOULD
BE ABLE TO TAP INTO HIGH PW AIR IN PLACE ALONG WITH SIGNIFICANT
DESTABILIZATION TAKING PLACE DIURNALLY. IN FACT...IT COULD TURN
OUT TO BE A REPEAT OF YESTERDAY WITH STORM CLUSTERS SUSTAINING
THEMSELVES AND CROSSING FROM CENTRAL KENTUCKY THROUGH THE CWA WITH
A DAMAGING WIND THREAT. ACCORDINGLY...SPC HAS THE AREA IN A
SLIGHT RISK TODAY AND THIS WILL BE HIGHLIGHTED WITHIN THE HWO
ALONG WITH A WEB HEADLINE...BOTH ALSO NOTING A THREAT FOR
EXCESSIVE RAINS. THE EXPECTATION IS THAT THE HIGHER QPF WILL END
UP IN THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE CWA AND THESE PARTS GENERALLY HAVE
HIGHER FFG THAN THE SOUTH...SO IN COORDINATION WITH SURROUNDING
OFFICES HAVE HELD OFF ON A FFA FOR THIS AREA...THOUGH ONE MAY BE
HOISTED WITH A FUTURE UPDATE SHOULD THE CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION
BECOME MORE CLEAR.

THE BOUNDARY HAS CONSTANTLY BEEN PROGGED TO LIFT NORTHEAST OF THE
AREA...BUT RECENT MODEL TRENDS...PARTICULARLY THOSE FROM THE
NAM12...HAVE LEFT THAT IN DOUBT. AS A RESULT...WILL KEEP A THREAT
OF CONVECTION...POSSIBLY ORGANIZED...GOING THROUGH THE NIGHT AND
INTO THE MORNING HOURS OF SATURDAY. IN THE WAKE OF THIS POTENTIAL
COMPLEX...DIURNALLY DRIVEN INSTABILITY WILL BUILD ON SATURDAY
WITH A CONTINUED RISK FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...THOUGH THEY
WILL LIKELY BE LACKING SIGNIFICANT ASSISTANCE FROM THE MID LEVELS.
TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO REACH 90 IN THE
SOUTH...DEPENDING ON HOW LONG THE CONVECTION HOLDS OFF...WHILE LOW
TO MID 80S LOOK TO BE A BETTER BET IN THE NORTH. MUGGY AND WARM
TONIGHT THEN ANOTHER DAY OF WARMTH MITIGATED BY SCATTERED
CONVECTION ON SATURDAY.

USED THE SHORTBLEND AS A STARTING POINT FOR THE T/TD/WIND GRIDS
THROUGH THE EVENING BEFORE GOING WITH THE SUPERBLEND. ONLY MADE
SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE TEMPS TONIGHT BASED ON TERRAIN...
GIVEN THE HIGH MOISTURE ENVIRONMENT. AS FOR POPS...ENDED UP ON
THE HIGH SIDE OF GUIDANCE...CLOSEST TO THE MET NUMBERS...TODAY
THROUGH SATURDAY...AS THE GFS SEEMS TOO LOW...PARTICULARLY ON
SATURDAY.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM EDT FRI JUL 10 2015

WE BEGIN THE PERIOD WITH UPPER LEVEL HIGH SHIFTING WEST INTO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL BEGIN TRANSITIONING EASTERN KY INTO
MORE OF A NW FLOW PATTERN ALOFT. WHILE THE HIGH GENERALLY
CONTINUES TO SHIFT WEST OVER THE LONG TERM PERIOD...THE MODELS DO
STRUGGLE WITH THIS PATTERN AND IT IS QUITE EVIDENT WHEN LOOKING AT
THE SPAGHETTI PLOTS. THE OVERALL PATTERN WILL LEAD TO STORMY
CONDITIONS FOR THE MOST PART AS SHORTWAVES RIDE THROUGH THE FLOW
AND GENERAL HEIGHT FALLS ARE INTRODUCED. THE BIG ISSUE IN THE
UPPER LEVELS WILL BE THE DEPTH AND TIMING OF THE WAVES AND THEIR
AFFECT OF THE SURFACE FEATURES.

THE PERIOD LOOKS TO BEGIN WITH A BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS THE
REGION. THE GUIDANCE IS A BIT UNCERTAIN TO THE EXACT LOCATION SO
DID LEAN TOWARD CHANCE POPS. THIS BOUNDARY LIFTS OUT OF THE REGION
MOVING INTO SUNDAY. HOWEVER AFTER THIS THE NW FLOW PATTERN AND
SHORTWAVES WILL KEEP THE PERIOD QUITE ACTIVE. BEST CHANCES OF POPS
RIGHT NOW LOOK TO BE FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT...HOWEVER UNCERTAINTY EXISTS GIVEN THE FACT THAT MUCH OF
THIS ACTIVITY COULD BE IN THE FORM OF MCS ACTIVITY AND THE FACT
THAT GUIDANCE DIFFERENCES IN DEPTH/TIMING OF WAVES WILL HAVE
IMPLICATIONS. GIVEN THIS HAVE STUCK CLOSE TO THE MODEL BLENDS FOR
THE PERIOD. THE ACTIVE PATTERN DOES KEEP US WITH ABOVE NORMAL
PRECIP THROUGH THE PERIOD BASED ON CPC...WHICH SEEM QUITE
REASONABLE. THIS PERIOD WILL ALSO BE MET WITH GENERALLY NEAR TO
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES...HOWEVER THIS COULD HEAVILY DEPEND ON
CLOUD COVER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 800 AM EDT FRI JUL 10 2015

SOME IFR AND MVFR FOG AROUND THE SOUTHERN SITES RIGHT NOW...BUT
THAT SHOULD CLEAR UP OVER THE NEXT HOUR WITH VFR CONDITIONS
RETURNING FOR A TIME. HOWEVER...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
CAN BE EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS. WITH ANY OF THESE THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE FOR MVFR OR IFR
CONDITIONS. A CLUSTER OF CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH
THE AREA...POSSIBLY ORGANIZED. THE TIMING AND EXTENT OF THIS IS
STILL TO UNCERTAIN TO GO WITH A PREVAILING WITH TSRA ATTM SO VCTS
WILL HAVE TO SUFFICE FOR THIS UPDATE. THE CONVECTION WANES LATER
THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT WITH PATCHY FOG AGAIN ANTICIPATED FOR
ALL SITES. OUTSIDE OF ANY STORMS...WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT
THROUGH MID MORNING BEFORE PICKING UP TO BETWEEN 5 AND 10 KTS FROM
THE SOUTHWEST AND LATER TO THE WEST FOR THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR KYZ044-050>052-
058>060-068-069-104-106>114-119-120.

&&

UPDATE...HAL
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...DJ
AVIATION...GREIF

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
415 AM EDT FRI JUL 10 2015

KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120-111115-
FLEMING-MONTGOMERY-BATH-ROWAN-ESTILL-POWELL-MENIFEE-ROCKCASTLE-
JACKSON-PULASKI-LAUREL-WAYNE-MCCREARY-WHITLEY-KNOX-BELL-HARLAN-
ELLIOTT-MORGAN-JOHNSON-WOLFE-MAGOFFIN-FLOYD-LEE-BREATHITT-KNOTT-
OWSLEY-PERRY-CLAY-LESLIE-LETCHER-MARTIN-PIKE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...FLEMINGSBURG...CAMARGO...
JEFFERSONVILLE...MOUNT STERLING...OWINGSVILLE...MOREHEAD...
IRVINE...RAVENNA...CLAY CITY...STANTON...FRENCHBURG...BRODHEAD...
MOUNT VERNON...MCKEE...ANNVILLE...BURNSIDE...SOMERSET...LONDON...
MONTICELLO...STEARNS...WHITLEY CITY...CORBIN...WILLIAMSBURG...
BARBOURVILLE...MIDDLESBORO...PINEVILLE...CUMBERLAND...HARLAN...
SANDY HOOK...WEST LIBERTY...PAINTSVILLE...CAMPTON...
SALYERSVILLE...PRESTONSBURG...WHEELWRIGHT...BEATTYVILLE...
JACKSON...HINDMAN...PIPPA PASSES...BOONEVILLE...HAZARD...
MANCHESTER...HYDEN...JENKINS...WHITESBURG...INEZ...COAL RUN...
ELKHORN CITY...PIKEVILLE...SOUTH WILLIAMSON
415 AM EDT FRI JUL 10 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN KENTUCKY.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING WILL BE POSSIBLE
WITH ANY STORMS. IN ADDITION...THERE WILL BE A POTENTIAL FOR
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

BE ON THE LOOK OUT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL IN LOCATIONS WHERE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVE
REPEATEDLY OVER THE SAME LOCATIONS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AT TIMES FROM SATURDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY INCIDENTS OF EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL OR WIND DAMAGE.

GREIF

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