Severe Thunderstorm Warning 10, NWS Jackson, KY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
712 PM EDT TUE APR 7 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 712 PM EDT TUE APR 7 2015

SUBSTANTIAL INSTABILITY PRESENT AND AMPLE MOISTURE AVAILABLE
ACROSS THE AREA IS FUELING SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ACROSS
EASTERN KENTUCKY AND AS SUCH HAVE UPDATED TO ISSUE THE SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH ACROSS THE AREA UNTIL 04Z TONIGHT. A FEW BOWING
SEGMENTS PRESENT ALONG THE ACTIVITY MOVING INTO THE AREA WILL MAKE
FOR MORE OF A WIND THREAT HEADING INTO THIS EVENING A NEW ZFP HAS
BEEN ISSUED.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 610 PM EDT TUE APR 7 2015

CURRENT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA FEATURES A DEVELOPING MCS OUT
IN CENTRAL KENTUCKY AS IT MOVES EAST INTO THE AREA THIS EVENING.
THOUGH POSSIBLE LESSENED INSTABILITY THROUGH THE DAY...THERE HAVE
BEEN A FEW PEAKS OF SUN AFTER THE EARLIER CONVECTION SO WOULD
EXPECT SOME CONTINUED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO MOVE THROUGH
THE AREA THIS EVENING AND INTO TONIGHT. SHOULD SEE A SLIGHT
WEAKENING IN CONVECTION DUE TO THE LESS FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT BUT
HYDRO CONCERNS ARE RELATIVELY HIGH DUE TO RAINFALL EARLIER TODAY
AND THIS AFTERNOON. THEREFORE...HAVE DECIDED TO ISSUE A FLASH
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TONIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW. WITH THIS...HAVE
RAMPED UP POPS AND QPF. SOME NEW ZONES HAVE BEEN ISSUED AS WELL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 359 PM EDT TUE APR 7 2015

THE PICTURE IS MUDDLED AS THE PERIOD STARTS. WE ARE CURRENTLY
ENTERING A LULL IN CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY AS ONE AREA OF PRECIP EXITS
TO THE EAST...AND ANOTHER IS MAINLY NORTH OF THE OHIO RIVER IN
SOUTHERN INDIANA AND SOUTHERN ILLINOIS. WHILE WESTERN AND CENTRAL
KY HAVE SEEN CONSIDERABLE DESTABILIZATION TODAY...OUR AREA HAS
NOT. THE CONVECTION IN ILLINOIS AND INDIANA IS MOVING IN OUR
DIRECTION...BUT THE EXTENT TO WHICH IT WILL REMAIN INTACT IS IN
QUESTION. HAVE STOPPED POPS JUST SHY OF LIKELY FOR TONIGHT...BUT
TRENDS WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED TO SEE IF THEY NEED TO BE RAISED.

THINK THAT WHATEVER CONVECTION WE GET WILL PEAK THIS
EVENING...WITH DIMINISHED ACTIVITY OVERNIGHT. BOTH THE GFS AND NAM
SUGGEST ANOTHER TIME OF ELEVATED POPS AT MID DAY OR EARLY
AFTERNOON ON WEDNESDAY. AFTER THIS THE FOCUS FOR MUCH OF THE
ACTIVITY SHIFTS TO OUR N AND W FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AS STRONG LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOP OVER THE MIDDLE OF THE NATION AND PUTS OUR REGION
MORE INTO THE WARM SECTOR.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 PM EDT TUE APR 7 2015

EASTERN KENTUCKY REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
AT THE START OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD...WITH CONTINUED UNSETTLED
WEATHER. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY ON THURSDAY AND
ESPECIALLY ON FRIDAY WHEN THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FINALLY MAKE A PUSH
EWD. AS THE ASSOCIATED SFC LOW TRACKS NEWD TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES
ON FRIDAY...AN EXTENDED COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE
REGION...INCREASING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. MODEL
SOUNDINGS SHOW CAPE/LI VALUES...THOUGH VALUES ARE ABOUT THE SAME AS
TODAYS AND AREAS OF STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS DID DEVELOP. THE MORE
SIGNIFICANT THREAT WILL LIKELY BE HEAVY RAINFALL AND A FLASH FLOOD
THREAT...ESPECIALLY SINCE PW/S ARE WELL ABOVE NORMAL. THE FRONT
SHOULD PASS THROUGH EASTERN KENTUCKY SOMETIME ON FRIDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING...THOUGH THE GFS IS STILL A BIT FASTER THAN THE
ECMWF. SO HAVE WENT WITH A MODEL BLEND WITH POPS INTO SAT MORNING.

THE WEEKEND SHOULD BE A BIT COOLER BUT DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
ACROSS KENTUCKY. HOWEVER THE DRY WEATHER IS SHORT LIVED AS ONCE
AGAIN WE FALL UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF BROAD SOUTHWEST FLOW ON MONDAY.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR ANOTHER PROLONGED PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER
CONSISTING OF SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY NEXT WEEK.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL GENERALLY BE WELL ABOVE
NORMAL...LIKELY SURPASSING THE 80 DEGREE MARK FOR THE FIRST TIME
THIS YEAR.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 712 PM EDT TUE APR 7 2015

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A COMPLEX MOVING INTO
THE AREA WILL MAKE FOR NEAR FIELD MINIMUMS ACROSS THE AREA AND AT
THE AIRPORT SITES. WILL HAVE IFR AND BELOW CONDITIONS THROUGH MUCH
OF THIS EVENING AND INTO TONIGHT. AS THE CONVECTION MOVES
ON...EXPECT SOME FOG AND LOW CEILINGS TO DEVELOP TONIGHT AND
TOWARDS DAWN. WINDS WILL REMAIN MAINLY LIGHT OUTSIDE OF
THUNDERSTORMS. MORE CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND
INTO THE EVENING AND HAVE INPUT THIS THREAT INTO THE TAF SITES AS
WELL.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR KYZ044-050>052-
058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120.

&&

UPDATE...SHALLENBERGER
SHORT TERM...HAL
LONG TERM...JVM
AVIATION...SHALLENBERGER

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
647 PM EDT TUE APR 7 2015

KYZ050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-104-106>117-090200-
MONTGOMERY-BATH-ROWAN-ESTILL-POWELL-MENIFEE-ROCKCASTLE-JACKSON-
PULASKI-LAUREL-ELLIOTT-MORGAN-JOHNSON-WOLFE-MAGOFFIN-FLOYD-LEE-
BREATHITT-KNOTT-OWSLEY-PERRY-CLAY-LESLIE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CAMARGO...JEFFERSONVILLE...
MOUNT STERLING...OWINGSVILLE...MOREHEAD...IRVINE...RAVENNA...
CLAY CITY...STANTON...FRENCHBURG...BRODHEAD...MOUNT VERNON...
MCKEE...ANNVILLE...BURNSIDE...SOMERSET...LONDON...SANDY HOOK...
WEST LIBERTY...PAINTSVILLE...CAMPTON...SALYERSVILLE...
PRESTONSBURG...WHEELWRIGHT...BEATTYVILLE...JACKSON...HINDMAN...
PIPPA PASSES...BOONEVILLE...HAZARD...MANCHESTER...HYDEN
647 PM EDT TUE APR 7 2015

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING...
...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 29 IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT
TONIGHT...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN KENTUCKY.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

THUNDERSTORMS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE...WITH A
THREAT OF ISOLATED FLOODING. A FEW OF THE MOST INTENSE STORMS MAY
BE SEVERE AND CONTAIN DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY EVENING...WITH A THREAT OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY INSTANCES OF FLOODING...HAIL...
OR WIND DAMAGE WHICH OCCUR THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING.

KYZ044-083>088-118>120-090200-
FLEMING-WAYNE-MCCREARY-WHITLEY-KNOX-BELL-HARLAN-LETCHER-MARTIN-
PIKE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...FLEMINGSBURG...MONTICELLO...STEARNS...
WHITLEY CITY...CORBIN...WILLIAMSBURG...BARBOURVILLE...
MIDDLESBORO...PINEVILLE...CUMBERLAND...HARLAN...JENKINS...
WHITESBURG...INEZ...COAL RUN...ELKHORN CITY...PIKEVILLE...
SOUTH WILLIAMSON
647 PM EDT TUE APR 7 2015

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN KENTUCKY.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

THUNDERSTORMS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE...WITH A
THREAT OF ISOLATED FLOODING. A FEW OF THE MOST INTENSE STORMS MAY
CONTAIN STRONG WIND GUSTS AND HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY EVENING...WITH A THREAT OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY INSTANCES OF FLOODING...HAIL...
OR WIND DAMAGE WHICH OCCUR THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING.

HAL/SHALLENBERGER

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