Flash Flood Warning 86, NWS Jackson, KY

918 
WGUS73 KJKL 101554
FFSJKL

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1154 AM EDT THU SEP 10 2015

KYC205-101603-
/O.CAN.KJKL.FF.W.0086.000000T0000Z-150910T1615Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
ROWAN KY-
1154 AM EDT THU SEP 10 2015

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR CENTRAL ROWAN COUNTY IS CANCELLED...

THE HEAVY RAIN HAS ENDED...AND FLOODING IS NO LONGER EXPECTED TO POSE
A THREAT.

LAT...LON 3822 8332 3816 8333 3818 8343 3825 8354
      3826 8353 3826 8352 3827 8352 3827 8351
      3829 8352

$$

SHALLENBERGER

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
740 AM EDT THU SEP 10 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 721 AM EDT THU SEP 10 2015

SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A ISOLATED STORM ARE CONTINUING TO MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION THIS HOUR. THE MAIN THREAT FROM THESE WILL BE
MODERATE RAINFALL AND REDUCED VIS. THE BEST COVERAGE HAS BEEN
ACROSS THE SW PORTIONS OF THE REGION GENERALLY ALONG THE HAL
ROGERS PARKWAY AND GENERALLY POINTS WEST OF I75. UPDATED THE WX
GRIDS WITH ISOLATED THUNDER GIVEN THAT HAVE SEEN A FEW MAINLY
CLOUD TO CLOUD STRIKES TOWARD SOMERSET. THE CAM MODELS SEEM TO
HAVE A OVERALL DECENT HANDLE WITH REGARDS TO COVERAGE...BUT SEEM
TO BE RUNNING A BIT SLOW. THAT SAID COVERAGE LOOKS TO WAIN THROUGH
THE DAY WITH BEST CHANCES ALONG THE VA BORDER BY LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. ALSO MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPS/DEWS/WINDS WITH
LATEST OBS/TRENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 AM EDT THU SEP 10 2015

WSR-88D RADAR INDICATES SOME AREAS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN
SHOWERS ARE MOVING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE REGION THIS MORNING.
THIS IS ASSOCIATED WITH A MESO LOW RIDING SLOWLY NORTH AND EAST
ALONG AND NEAR A STALLED OUT BOUNDARY ACROSS OUR SE. CAM MODELS
ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS CONTINUING TRACKING EAST ACROSS
THE REGION THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE DAY...THEREFORE SHOWERS
ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE THE DAY. THEN
THIS STALLED OUT BOUNDARY BECOMES THE FOCAL POINT FOR LIFT AS WE
MOVE INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS...THEREFORE FOCUS THE HIGHEST POPS
ACROSS THE SE NEARER THE TN/VA BORDERS. GIVEN A BIT OF INSTABILITY
DID KEEP THE ISOLATED STORM IN THE GRIDS...BUT OVERALL CONFIDENCE
REMAINS LOWER TODAY. COVERAGE WILL REDUCE AS WE GO INTO THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES SE. THE ISSUE
TONIGHT WILL BE THE FOG/LOW STRATUS POTENTIAL ONCE AGAIN...SO DID
GO WITH PATCHY FOG LATE IN THE EVENING INTO THE OVER NIGHT HOURS
TONIGHT.

MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH LULL IN THE PRECIP AHEAD OF
SECOND COLD FRONT...WHICH IS LOCATED UP FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO
THE UPPER PLAINS THIS MORNING. THIS WILL BE THE NEXT WEATHER
MAKER IN THE SHORT TERM...AND RIGHT NOW HAVE SOME SLIGHT TO CHANCE
POPS MOVING INTO THE REGION FROM NW TO SE AS WE MOVE INTO THE LATE
AFTERNOON. GIVEN THERE COULD BE A BIT OF INSTABILITY IN PLACE AND
WE ARE IN A GENERAL TSTORM RISK KEPT SOME ISOLATED STORMS IN FOR
FRIDAY AS WELL. OVERALL TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL REMAIN NEAR
NORMAL.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 449 AM EDT THU SEP 10 2015

A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN WEATHER WILL BE UNDERWAY AT THE START OF
THE PERIOD. A DEEP UPPER TROUGH WILL BE AMPLIFYING OVER THE
EASTERN CONUS...WITH AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVING SE
THROUGH OUR AREA. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED IN THE VICINITY OF THE
FRONT...AND POSSIBLY SOME THUNDERSTORMS. THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS
WILL LINGER AFTER FROPA WELL INTO THE WEEKEND DUE TO THE COLD
SEASON NATURE OF THE SYSTEM...WITH PERSISTENT MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW
IN COLD AIR CONVECTION. THIS FINALLY EASES ON SUNDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.

THE UPPER TROUGH PULLS OUT TO THE NE EARLY IN THE WEEK. SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST ALONG WITH UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING. THIS WILL ALLOW A DRY AIR MASS TO STAY IN PLACE...WITH
CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND A WARMING TREND.
ALTHOUGH...RIDGE/VALLEY TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCES WILL CONTINUE AT
NIGHT DUE TO THE DRY AIR AND LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 740 AM EDT THU SEP 10 2015

SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS ARE MAKING THERE WAY ACROSS MUCH OF
EASTERN KY THIS MORNING. THE BEST CONCENTRATION REMAINS GENERALLY
SOUTH OF THE HAL ROGERS PARKWAY NEARER THE TN BORDER. THIS HAS
ALLOWED SOME SITES TO SEE SOME WHAT IMPROVED CONDITIONS...STILL
MANY SITES SEEING MVFR OR LOWER VIS AND/OR CIGS THIS MORNING.
THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE AS WE MOVE INTO THE
AFTERNOON WITH SITES COMING UP TO VFR. THE POSSIBILITY OF STRAY
STORM MAINLY AT JKL AND SJS SO KEPT VCTS. ALSO OPTED TO ADD FOG
TONIGHT GIVEN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE FROM RAIN AND SOME
CLEARING POSSIBLE. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

UPDATE...DJ
SHORT TERM...DJ
LONG TERM...HAL
AVIATION...DJ

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
420 AM EDT THU SEP 10 2015

KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120-111100-
FLEMING-MONTGOMERY-BATH-ROWAN-ESTILL-POWELL-MENIFEE-ROCKCASTLE-
JACKSON-PULASKI-LAUREL-WAYNE-MCCREARY-WHITLEY-KNOX-BELL-HARLAN-
ELLIOTT-MORGAN-JOHNSON-WOLFE-MAGOFFIN-FLOYD-LEE-BREATHITT-KNOTT-
OWSLEY-PERRY-CLAY-LESLIE-LETCHER-MARTIN-PIKE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...FLEMINGSBURG...CAMARGO...
JEFFERSONVILLE...MOUNT STERLING...OWINGSVILLE...MOREHEAD...
IRVINE...RAVENNA...CLAY CITY...STANTON...FRENCHBURG...BRODHEAD...
MOUNT VERNON...MCKEE...ANNVILLE...BURNSIDE...SOMERSET...LONDON...
MONTICELLO...STEARNS...WHITLEY CITY...CORBIN...WILLIAMSBURG...
BARBOURVILLE...MIDDLESBORO...PINEVILLE...CUMBERLAND...HARLAN...
SANDY HOOK...WEST LIBERTY...PAINTSVILLE...CAMPTON...
SALYERSVILLE...PRESTONSBURG...WHEELWRIGHT...BEATTYVILLE...
JACKSON...HINDMAN...PIPPA PASSES...BOONEVILLE...HAZARD...
MANCHESTER...HYDEN...JENKINS...WHITESBURG...INEZ...COAL RUN...
ELKHORN CITY...PIKEVILLE...SOUTH WILLIAMSON
420 AM EDT THU SEP 10 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN KENTUCKY.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PATCHY DENSE FOG IS POSSIBLE THIS MORNING AND MAY REDUCE
VISIBILITY BELOW A QUARTER OF A MILE AT TIMES.

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

DJ