Severe Thunderstorm Warning 99, NWS Jacksonville, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
244 PM EDT TUE JUN 9 2015

.NEAR TERM /THRU WEDNESDAY/...
UPSTREAM CONVECTION CONTINUES TO STREAM INTO THE NE FL AND SE GA
THIS LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS CONVECTION WILL BE SLOW TO
WANE TONIGHT WITH DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND ELONGATED VORB LOBE AND
QC FORCING MOVING INTO THE REGION DURING THE NOCTURNAL HOURS.
HENCE...WILL KEEP HIGH END TO LIKELY CHANCE OF RAIN AND TSTMS FOR
THE REGION THROUGH 06Z WITH HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS PUSHING BULK OF
THE FIRST ROUND OF CONVECTION TOWARD THE COAST BY 03Z WITH PERHAPS
ANOTHER SECOND ROUND OF CONVECTION...WITH A CLUSTER OF TSTMS
MOVING INTO THE REGION DURING THE LATE EVENING AND EARLY OVERNIGHT
HOURS WITH SWLY FLOW PROVIDING AMPLE GULF MOISTURE.

ON WEDNESDAY...SOUTHERN EXTENSION OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
STRETCHES OUT INTO THE GOMEX AS RIDGE STRENGTHENS WELL TO
SOUTHEAST OVER THE BAHAMAS. THIS WILL INCREASE THE LOW-MID LEVEL
SOUTHWEST FLOW WITH PWATS AROUND 1.8". IN ADDITION... 5H
TEMPERATURES COOL TO ABOUT -10C INCREASING MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES.
BASICALY...LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER DAY WITH HIGH COVERAGE OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS. WEST COAST SEABREEZE WILL TRACK INTO THE SUWANNEE
VALLEY AND INTERIOR SE GA LATE IN THE MORNING AND EARLY IN THE
AFTERNOON WITH CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG THE FIRST COAST WITH
MUCH SLOWER MOVING EAST COAST SEA BREEZE. THE SEA BREEZES SHOULD
MERGE SOMEWHERE OVER THE INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL COUNTIES
WHERE THE HIGHEST CHANCES OF PRECIP IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP.
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS EXPECTED INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING ON WEDNESDAY. AGAIN...A FEW STORMS MAY BECOME STRONG TO
SEVERE WITH HIGH WINDS BEING THE MAIN THREAT.

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
500MB HEIGHTS BUILD AS UPPER RIDGING BUILDS WESTWARD OVER FL/GA
FROM WRN ATLANTIC. MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SOME DECREASE IN
PRECIP WATER VALUES THU COULD SUPPORT A DECREASING TREND IN PRECIP
COVERAGE. WILL CONTINUE WITH 40-50 POPS THU AFTERNOON...POSSIBLY
HIGHER SUWANNEE VALLEY REGION IN WK SWRLY FLOW. HIGH TEMPS NEAR 90
INLAND...MID/UPR 80S COAST...WITH LOW TEMPS WED AND THU NIGHTS UPR
60S INTERIOR...LOW 70S EASTERN COUNTIES...MID 70S IMMEDIATE COAST.

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LONG TERM TO BE PERIOD OF LOWER RAIN CHANCES WITH UPPER RIDGING
BUILDING OVER THE AREA FROM WESTERN ATLANTIC...AND MODEL GUIDANCE
SUGGESTING SOMEWHAT LOWER PRECIP WATER VALUES. WILL LIMIT POPS TO
20-30 FOR WIDELY SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS/T-STORMS ASSOCIATED
WITH SEA BREEZES.

RISING HEIGHTS WILL SUPPORT WARMER TEMPS...WITH HIGH TEMPS DURING
THE PERIOD IN THE MID 90S INTERIOR...LOWER 90S EASTERN COUNTIES
AND NEAR 90 COAST.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THRU 21Z. TSTM COVERAGE
WILL INCREASE FROM 22Z THRU 02Z. WILL USE TEMPO TSTM GROUPS FOR
AREA TERMINALS. INTERMITTENT AND BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS CAN BE
EXPECTED WITH STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS. A MICROBURST CAN OCCUR WITH
A FEW OF THE AFTN AND EARLY EVENING TSTMS. THESE STORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DIMINISH INTO MID EVENING EXCEPT IMMEDIATE COASTAL
TERMINALS WHERE STORMS WILL PUSH OFFSHORE AROUND 06Z. AFTER
06Z...PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS THRU 18Z WEDNESDAY. CONVECTION
WILL START ACROSS THE INTERIOR PORTIONS OF NE FL/SE GA JUST BEFORE
18Z...THEN PUSH EASTWARD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...AN UPPER TROUGH WILL DROP SOUTH THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
BRINGING A PERIOD OF STORMY WEATHER. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD EAST OF THE REGION ONCE AGAIN LATER IN THE WEEK AND REMAIN
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...PRODUCING FAIRLY LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS AND
LOW SEAS.

RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK THIS AFTERNOON THRU WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  71  90  69  89 /  50  50  40  40
SSI  74  86  73  85 /  40  50  40  40
JAX  70  89  71  89 /  60  50  40  50
SGJ  72  86  73  87 /  60  60  30  50
GNV  70  88  70  89 /  60  60  30  50
OCF  71  87  70  90 /  60  60  30  50

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

WOLF/CORDERO/GUILLET

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
346 AM EDT TUE JUN 9 2015

AMZ450-452-454-470-472-474-FLZ020>025-030>033-035>038-040-124-125-
GAZ132>136-149>154-162>166-100800-
COASTAL WATERS FROM ALTAMAHA SOUND TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL OUT
20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST. AUGUSTINE FL OUT
20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM ST. AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL FROM 20 TO
60 NM-
WATERS FROM FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST. AUGUSTINE FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM ST. AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
HAMILTON-SUWANNEE-COLUMBIA-BAKER-INLAND NASSAU-INLAND DUVAL-UNION-
BRADFORD-CLAY-ST. JOHNS-GILCHRIST-ALACHUA-PUTNAM-FLAGLER-MARION-
COASTAL NASSAU-COASTAL DUVAL-COFFEE-JEFF DAVIS-BACON-APPLING-
WAYNE-ATKINSON-WARE-PIERCE-BRANTLEY-INLAND GLYNN-COASTAL GLYNN-
ECHOLS-CLINCH-CHARLTON-INLAND CAMDEN-COASTAL CAMDEN-
346 AM EDT TUE JUN 9 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST FLORIDA...
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. A FEW OF THESE STORMS MAY BE STRONG TO SEVERE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STORMS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY...WITH A FEW STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE. MAINLY INLAND
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
IN JACKSONVILLE WEBSITE ON THE INTERNET AT WEATHER.GOV/JAX.

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