Severe Thunderstorm Warning 91, NWS Jacksonville, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
340 PM EDT WED JUN 3 2015

...STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND I-75
CORRIDOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...

.CURRENTLY...
AFTERNOON SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTS A STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY
EXTENDING FROM THE COASTAL CAROLINAS SOUTHWESTWARD TO CENTRAL
GEORGIA. ALOFT...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS IS STARTING TO NUDGE EASTWARD...WITH AN ASSOCIATED
POSITIVE VORTICITY LOBE MOVING ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. AHEAD OF
THIS FEATURE...LAPS ANALYSIS DEPICTS CAPE VALUES NEAR 3000 J/KG
FOR LOCATIONS NORTH OF INTERSTATE 10. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS
BEEN NUMEROUS ALONG COASTAL SOUTHEAST GA...WITH STRONG TO SEVERE
ACTIVITY DEVELOPING ALONG THE ALTAMAHA RIVER IN ADVANCE OF THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. SOUTH OF I-10...EXTENSIVE MID-LEVEL DRY AIR AND
SUBSIDENCE IS LIMITING CUMULUS UPDRAFT DEVELOPMENT...WITH THE GULF
COAST SEA BREEZE STRUGGLING TO DEVELOP OVER THE FL BIG BEND.
OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...TEMPERATURES WERE GENERALLY IN
THE MID 80S...WITH DRY AIR MIXING DOWN TO THE SURFACE AND BRINGING
DEWPOINTS DOWN INTO THE LOW/MID 60S IN NORTHEAST FL.

.NEAR TERM (THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT)...
HIGH RESOLUTION SHORT TERM GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT INTERSTATE 10
AND POINTS NORTHWARD THROUGH THE OKEFENOKEE SWAMP AND INLAND
SOUTHEAST GA WILL BE THE FOCAL POINT FOR STRONG TO POSSIBLY
ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING
HOURS. MID-LEVEL DRY AIR WILL ENHANCE THE THREAT FOR WET
MICROBURSTS...WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS BEING THE PRIMARY THREAT
ALONG WITH POSSIBLE HAIL WITHIN PULSING STORMS. AS MESOSCALE
BOUNDARIES COLLIDE WITH THE GULF COAST SEA BREEZE...WE EXPECT
ACTIVITY TO DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EARLY TO MID
EVENING HOURS ALONG THE I-75 CORRIDOR NORTH...WITH A FEW WET
MICROBURSTS POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS THROUGH EARLY EVENING. THE
STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS PLACED AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF I-10
IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THROUGH
THIS EVENING.

ACTIVITY MAY LINGER THROUGH AROUND MIDNIGHT FOR INLAND SOUTHEAST
GA AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SETTLES NEAR THE ALTAMAHA RIVER. SOME
LOW STRATUS AND FOG IS POSSIBLE DURING THE PREDAWN AND EARLY
MORNING HOURS IN SOUTHEAST GA...BUT CONFIDENCE WAS TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST GRIDS. DEBRIS CLOUDS WILL OTHERWISE
GRADUALLY DISSOLVE OVERNIGHT...ALLOWING LOWS TO FALL TO THE MID
60S INLAND...RANGING TO THE LOWER 70S IN COASTAL LOCATIONS.

.SHORT TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY... A SHORTWAVE MOVING
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES STATES WILL NUDGE THE PERSISTENT UPPER AIR
LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS EASTWARD. THIS WILL RESULT IN THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY BECOMING STATIONARY OVER OUR REGION...AS HIGH
PRESSURE EXPANDS SOUTHWARD DOWN THE SOUTHEASTERN SEABOARD. LOW-LEVEL
FLOW WILL BECOME NORTHEASTERLY...WHILE MID-LEVEL DRY AIR FILTERS
OVER MUCH OF THE REGION AS THE UPPER LOW DEPARTS INTO THE CAROLINAS.
WE EXPECT SCATTERED CONVECTION TO DEVELOP OVER INLAND SOUTHEAST GA
DURING THE LATE MORNING HOURS...WITH ACTIVITY FOCUSING WEST OF
INTERSTATE 95 IN NORTHEAST FL DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. MID-LEVEL
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM SLIGHTLY WITH THE DEPARTURE OF THE UPPER
LOW...AND THUS ONLY A FEW STRONG STORMS ARE ANTICIPATED BY LATE
AFTERNOON. HIGHS INLAND WILL REACH THE UPPER 80S T0 NEAR 90...WITH
LOW/MID 80S ALONG THE COAST AS NORTHEAST WINDS DEVELOP DURING THE
AFTERNOON.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY... GENERAL PATTERN SHOWN BY GFS IS A
MEAN MID LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE REGION THU NIGHT INTO FRI WITH A
LARGE BLOCKING RIDGE OVER THE S CENTRAL CONUS. THE TROUGH MAY SLIP A
BIT SWD ON SATURDAY. MAINLY EXPECT DIURNAL CONVECTION PATTERN WITH
MOISTURE LEVELS LOOKING FAIRLY TYPICAL FOR EARLY JUNE...WITH PWAT
NEAR 1.4 TO 1.6 INCHES. WEAK NE TO E LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL TEND TO
FAVOR INLAND CONVECTION BUT FLOW IS WEAK ENOUGH THAT E COAST HAS A
CHANCE TO TRIGGER SHOWERS/STORMS AS WELL. SO FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...WILL CONTINUE WITH ISOLD TO SCT MAINLY AFTN SHOWERS AND
STORMS. DRY AIR IN THE MID LEVELS MAY RESULT IN AN ISOLD RISK FOR
STRONG/LOCALLY SEVERE DOWNBURST WIND POTENTIAL BOTH FRI AND SAT.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 80S COAST TO THE LOWER 90S
WELL INLAND.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A BROAD MID-UPPER TROUGH
WILL BE OVER THE REGION SUNDAY BUT WEAKENS BY LATE MONDAY. BROAD
RIDGE BRIEFLY EXPECTED TO BUILD IN BY TUESDAY ONLY TO WEAKEN AGAIN
BY WEDNESDAY AS BROAD MID/UPPER TROUGH ONCE AGAIN DEVELOPS OVER THE
ERN CONUS...ALLOWING MID LEVEL RIDGING TO RETROGRADE TO THE CENTRAL
CONUS. PREVAILING FLOW IS ELY SUNDAY AND THEN BEGINS TO TRANSITION
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY TO S AND SW AS LOW LEVEL TROUGHING /WEAK
SFC FRONT MOVES TO THE APPALACHIANS AND MID ATLC STATES. DRY AIR IN
THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS WILL LIMIT DAILY CONVECTION TO AT LEAST
SCATTERED COVERAGE EACH DAY...AND PERHAPS BE LOWER COVERAGE THAN
THAT BUT WILL WAIT FOR MORE CONTINUITY BEFORE CUTTING BACK POPS.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR CLIMO.

&&

.AVIATION...
VICINITY SHOWERS AND VFR CIGS WILL PREVAIL AT SSI THROUGH AROUND
21Z. WE EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP NEAR THE DUVAL
COUNTY TERMINALS AFTER 20Z...WITH PERIODS OF MVFR OR POSSIBLE IFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH 24Z. VFR WILL LIKELY PREVAIL THROUGH AROUND 21Z
AT GNV...WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING TOWARDS 22Z/23Z
AND POSSIBLY PERSISTING INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. GUSTY WINDS
OVER 25 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE WITH ANY STRONGER ACTIVITY THAT
DEVELOPS. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT SGJ. RESIDUAL
SHOWERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE AT THE DUVAL COUNTY TERMINALS AND GNV
THROUGH AROUND MIDNIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
A WIND SURGE EARLY THIS EVENING WILL BRING SUSTAINED SOUTHEAST
WIND SPEEDS UP TO NEAR 15 KNOTS...WITH SPEEDS SUBSIDING AFTER
MIDNIGHT. ONSHORE WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WITH
SPEEDS BELOW 15 KNOTS...AND THEN WILL SHIFT TO A MORE NORTHERLY
DIRECTION BY EARLY FRIDAY AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE
CAROLINA COAST. THIS LOW PRESSURE CENTER WILL THEN MOVE EASTWARD
DURING THE WEEKEND...KEEPING A LIGHT AND MAINLY ONSHORE WIND
PATTERN IN PLACE...WITH SEAS GENERALLY IN THE 2-4 FOOT RANGE.

RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK CONTINUES THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  66  87  68  89 /  60  40  30  30
SSI  72  82  72  84 /  40  20  10  20
JAX  67  86  70  87 /  20  30  10  30
SGJ  70  84  73  86 /  10  10  10  20
GNV  67  90  69  91 /  40  40  30  30
OCF  68  90  70  90 /  40  40  30  30

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

NELSON/SHASHY/WALKER

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
145 PM EDT WED JUN 3 2015

AMZ450-452-454-470-472-474-FLZ020>025-030>033-035>038-040-124-125-
GAZ132>136-149>154-162>166-041745-
COASTAL WATERS FROM ALTAMAHA SOUND TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL OUT
20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST. AUGUSTINE FL OUT
20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM ST. AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL FROM 20 TO
60 NM-
WATERS FROM FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST. AUGUSTINE FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM ST. AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
HAMILTON-SUWANNEE-COLUMBIA-BAKER-INLAND NASSAU-INLAND DUVAL-UNION-
BRADFORD-CLAY-ST. JOHNS-GILCHRIST-ALACHUA-PUTNAM-FLAGLER-MARION-
COASTAL NASSAU-COASTAL DUVAL-COFFEE-JEFF DAVIS-BACON-APPLING-
WAYNE-ATKINSON-WARE-PIERCE-BRANTLEY-INLAND GLYNN-COASTAL GLYNN-
ECHOLS-CLINCH-CHARLTON-INLAND CAMDEN-COASTAL CAMDEN-
145 PM EDT WED JUN 3 2015

...STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY
EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST FLORIDA...
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE EARLY
EVENING HOURS...WITH ACTIVITY ALONG COASTAL SOUTHEAST GEORGIA
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON EXPANDING INLAND AND BECOMING FOCUSED ALONG
THE INTERSTATE 75 CORRIDOR BY THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. STRONGER
ACTIVITY WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG AND POSSIBLY DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS...FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES...AND SMALL HAIL. ACTIVITY
MAY LINGER WELL INTO THE EVENING HOURS AT INLAND LOCATIONS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED EACH DAY. THE BEST COVERAGE OF STORMS WILL BE GENERALLY
WEST OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED LATE THIS AFTERNOON DEPENDING
ON THE EXTENT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
IN JACKSONVILLE WEBSITE ON THE INTERNET AT WEATHER.GOV/JAX.

NELSON

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