Severe Thunderstorm Warning 75, NWS Jacksonville, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
223 PM EDT MON JUN 1 2015

...STRONG TO LOCALLY SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS...

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STORMS ARE DEVELOPING ALONG THE ATLANTIC
SEABREEZE JUST INLAND FROM THE NE FL BEACHES EARLY THIS AFTN.
THIS ACTIVITY...ALONG WITH ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY DEVELOPING ACROSS
INLAND SE GA WILL MERGE WITH THE GULF SEABREEZE MOVING EAST ALONG
THE I-17 CORRIDOR LATER THIS AFTN. SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY AFTN...THE
STRONGER STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL
HAIL. IN ADDITION...WITH RELATIVELY SLOW STORM MOTION...HEAVY RAIN
WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE HEAVIEST ACTIVITY. RESIDUAL ACTIVITY
THIS EVENING WILL MIGRATE BACK TO THE EAST BEFORE DIMINISHING IN
COVERAGE BY MIDNIGHT OR SO. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL
FOR LOWS TNGT.

TUESDAY...A LARGE MID/UPPER TROUGH WILL DIG IN ACROSS THE CENTRAL
GULF STATES...WITH A WEAK FRONT SAGS SE TOWARDS THE REGION. DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE WILL INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY...COMBINING WITH SHORT
WAVE ENERGY RESULTING IN NUMEROUS SHWRS/TSTMS BY TUESDAY AFTN
FOR MOST AREAS. SOME STORMS MAY BE STRONG DUE TO THE COOLER TEMPS
ALOFT AND 40-50 KNOTS OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR...WITH ISOLATED SEVERE
STORMS POSSIBLE. STORM MOTION WILL NOT INCREASE MUCH FROM THE
LAST COUPLE OF DAYS...WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN A POSSIBILITY ONCE
AGAIN. HIGHS WILL BE SUPPRESSED A BIT WITH CLOUDS/PRECIP...WITH
HIGHS IN THE LOWER/MID 80S FOR MOST AREAS.

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN TRACKING UPPER LOW DRIFTING
EASTWARD OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES THROUGH WED NIGHT WITH
SURFACE TROF JUST NW OF FORECAST AREA. EXPECT SCATTERED
SHOWERS/T-STORMS AHEAD OF FEATURE AND ALONG SEA BREEZES. GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS GIVEN MOIST ENVIRONMENT AND UPPER TROF OVER THE AREA THAT
ACTIVITY TO EXTEND THROUGH THE EVENING BOTH TUE NIGHT AND WED
NIGHT. LOW TEMPS BOTH NIGHTS IN UPR 60S TO LWR 70... WITH HIGH
TEMPS WED EXPECTED TO BE GENERALLY MID-UPR 80S.

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
UPPER LOW CONTINUES SLOW EASTWARD DRIFT OVER THE CAROLINAS/VIRGINIA
WHILE GRADUALLY WEAKENING THROUGH FRI NIGHT. EXPECT DAILY CHANCES OF
SHOWERS/ T-STORMS ALONG SEA BREEZES IN MOIST UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT.
UPR TROF AXIS MOVES OFF COAST SAT NIGHT WHILE STRONG UPR RIDGE
BUILDS WELL W OF FORECAST AREA...WHICH WILL SET UP WEAK SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE OVER MID ATLANTIC REGION AND ONSHORE FLOW PATTERN
FOR OUR FORECAST AREA. NEAR NORMAL TEMPS ARE EXPECTED IN THE LONG
TERM PERIOD...WITH HIGH TEMPS GENERALLY IN MID/UPR 80S...AND LOW
TEMPS IN UPR 60S/LWR 70S.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR WILL GENERALLY PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING SCATTERED TSTM ACTIVITY WILL MAINLY
AFFECT INLAND SITES WITH VCTS/TEMPO GROUPS 19-23Z. AREAS OF MVFR
AND GUST WINDS TO 30 KT WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE STRONGEST
ACTIVITY. ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING...WITH MORE NUMEROUS
ACTIVITY BY TUESDAY AFTN.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS/SEAS WILL REMAIN UNDER CAUTION FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK. A
STALLING COLD FRONT TO THE NW WILL SHIFT WINDS AROUND TO THE SW
TUE AND WED...BECOMING SE EACH AFTERNOON DUE TO SEABREEZE
FORMATION. ONSHORE WINDS WILL RETURN BY LATE WEEK.

RIP CURRENTS: MODERATE RISK TODAY. LOW RISK POSSIBLE TUESDAY WITH
OFFSHORE FLOW AND REDUCED SWELL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  69  86  67  86 /  60  70  40  50
SSI  74  80  70  82 /  40  60  50  50
JAX  69  84  68  85 /  30  70  50  50
SGJ  72  82  69  82 /  30  60  50  50
GNV  69  84  66  87 /  60  70  40  50
OCF  69  86  67  87 /  60  70  40  40

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

WOLF/ALLEN/WALKER

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
435 AM EDT MON JUN 1 2015

AMZ450-452-454-470-472-474-FLZ020>025-030>033-035>038-040-124-125-
GAZ132>136-149>154-162>166-021045-
COASTAL WATERS FROM ALTAMAHA SOUND
TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM FERNANDINA
BEACH TO ST. AUGUSTINE FL OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM ST.
AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL OUT 20 NM-WATERS FROM ALTAMAHA SOUND
GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM FERNANDINA
BEACH TO ST. AUGUSTINE FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM ST. AUGUSTINE
TO FLAGLER BEACH FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-HAMILTON-SUWANNEE-COLUMBIA-
BAKER-INLAND NASSAU-INLAND DUVAL-UNION-BRADFORD-CLAY-ST. JOHNS-
GILCHRIST-ALACHUA-PUTNAM-FLAGLER-MARION-COASTAL NASSAU-COASTAL DUVAL-
COFFEE-JEFF DAVIS-BACON-APPLING-WAYNE-ATKINSON-WARE-PIERCE-BRANTLEY-
INLAND GLYNN-COASTAL GLYNN-ECHOLS-CLINCH-CHARLTON-INLAND CAMDEN-
COASTAL CAMDEN-
435 AM EDT MON JUN 1 2015

...MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST FLORIDA...
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS CONTINUES TODAY.

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG GUSTY WINDS...HAIL...LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED EACH DAY. A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG GUSTY WINDS...HAIL...LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
IN JACKSONVILLE WEBSITE ON THE INTERNET AT WEATHER.GOV/JAX.

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