Severe Thunderstorm Warning 67, NWS Jacksonville, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
509 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

...STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ALONG THE INTERSTATE
75 CORRIDOR THROUGH EARLY EVENING...

.NEAR TERM (THROUGH TONIGHT):
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED INLAND SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL
BECOME MORE NUMEROUS ACROSS OUR WESTERN ZONES LATE THIS AFTERNOON
BETWEEN 5 AND 8 PM ALONG THE SLOWLY MOVING GULF COAST SEABREEZE.
EASTERN AREAS WILL REMAIN RAIN FREE THANKS TO BEING BEHIND THE
ATLANTIC COAST SEABREEZE AND ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF STRONG
SUBSIDENCE  AND DRY AIR ALOFT ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN.

THE STORMS ACROSS OUR WESTERN ZONES WILL BE WORKING WITH CAPE
VALUES NEAR 3000 J/KG AND 0-6KM BULK SHEAR VALUES NEAR 25 KNOTS.
SOME UPPER LEVEL ENERGY AND APPRECIABLE UPPER DIVERGENCE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON WILL ALL COMBINE TO SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS IN OUR WESTERN ZONES LATE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THIS EVENING. THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE STRONG GUSTY
WINDS...EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING...AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL DUE TO
SLOW STORM MOTION. ALL OF THIS ACTIVITY ACROSS OUR WESTERN ZONES
WILL GENERALLY REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY WITH A SLOW DRIFT EASTWARD
TOWARDS THE HIGHWAY 301 CORRIDOR EARLY THIS EVENING. THIS ACTIVITY
WILL ALSO WEAKEN CONSIDERABLY THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF
DIURNAL HEATING. ALL CONVECTION SHOULD END BY MIDNIGHT WITH NO
RAIN EXPECTED THE REST OF THE NIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE
SLIGHTLY COOLER DUE TO DEEP LAYER DRY AIR  ADVECTING WESTWARD
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT.

.SHORT TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)...
A RATHER STAGNANT WEATHER PATTERN WILL PREVAIL...FEATURING RIDGING
ALOFT ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. SEABOARD...WITH "BERMUDA"
SURFACE RIDGING MAINTAINING A DEEP ONSHORE WIND REGIME LOCALLY.
SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL GLIDE NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO
AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE ATLANTIC RIDGE ON
WEDNESDAY...IMPACTING THE WESTERN SUWANNEE VALLEY AND INTERIOR
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA...WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS CONVECTION
DEVELOPING MAINLY WEST OF INTERSTATE 75. A VERY DRY AND SUBSIDENT
AIR MASS...CURRENTLY SEEN ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IN THE OFFSHORE
ATLANTIC WATERS...WILL ADVECT WESTWARD AND COVER MUCH OF OUR
REGION FROM LATE TOMORROW THROUGH THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK. THIS
DRY AIR WILL MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS...WITH DEWPOINTS INLAND FALLING TO NEAR 60 DEGREES DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. ENHANCED EASTERLY FLOW MAY DRIVE A FEW
SHOWERS ONSHORE DURING THE MORNING HOURS ON THURSDAY...BUT STRONG
SUBSIDENCE SHOULD LIMIT COVERAGE TO ISOLATED AS THIS ACTIVITY
MOVES INLAND DURING THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM NEAR 90
WELL INLAND TO THE LOWER 80S AT THE COAST. LOWS WILL FALL TO THE
MID 60S INLAND...WITH LOWER 70S AT THE COAST.

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...
A TROUGH ALOFT WILL GRADUALLY DIG SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE PLAINS
STATES TO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS WEATHER PATTERN WILL
MAINTAIN A RIDGE OVER OUR REGION...ALBEIT AT A WEAKENED STATE.
LESS SUBSIDENCE SHOULD ALLOW FOR AN INCREASE IN DIURNAL CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE ALONG MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES SUCH AS THE ATLANTIC AND GULF
COAST SEA BREEZES THIS WEEKEND. LOW-LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW WILL
FOCUS SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACTIVITY INLAND...WITH
ISOLATED NOCTURNAL AND MORNING SHOWER ACTIVITY POSSIBLE IN THE
COASTAL COUNTIES. AS THE SHORTWAVE DIGS INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY...INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT MAY FINALLY BRING MORE
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TO COASTAL LOCATIONS EARLY NEXT WEEK. WILL
KEEP SCATTERED DIURNAL COVERAGE IN THE FORECAST GRIDS FOR
NOW. HIGHS WILL REMAIN NEAR 90 INLAND...AND THE MID 80S AT THE
COAST. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S INLAND TO THE MID 70S AT
THE COAST.

&&

.AVIATION...
PRIMARILY EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL. ONE EXCEPTION WILL
BE AT THE GNV TERMINAL THIS AFTERNOON WHERE THERE IS A CHANCE FOR
A BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR CONDITIONS WITH GUSTY WINDS IN THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY. WILL JUST CARRY VCTS FOR NOW SINCE THE HIGHEST COVERAGE
IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN JUST WEST OF GAINESVILLE. INLAND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL WIND DOWN THIS EVENING WITH VFR PREVAILING
OVERNIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
EASTERLY WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS WILL INCREASE BRIEFLY TO 15 TO 20
KNOTS OVER THE OFFSHORE ZONES THIS EVENING...BUT DURATIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE TOO BRIEF TO WARRANT AN SCEC HEADLINE. WINDS WILL
BECOME MORE NORTHEASTERLY THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY AS THE
ATLANTIC RIDGE RE-ORIENTS ITSELF...BUT SPEEDS WILL MOSTLY REMAIN
BELOW CAUTION SPEEDS...WITH THE EXCEPTION FOR A FEW HOURS EACH
EVENING DURING THE DAILY WIND SURGE AROUND SUNSET. SEAS OFFSHORE
MAY APPROACH CAUTION CRITERIA ON FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. ONSHORE
WINDS WILL PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT SPEEDS AND SEAS WILL
SLOWLY SUBSIDE THIS WEEKEND AS THE ATLANTIC RIDGE NUDGES EASTWARD.

RIP CURRENTS: MODERATE RISK CONTINUES THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  69  88  66  89 /  40  40  20  10
SSI  72  83  71  82 /  10  10  20  20
JAX  69  86  67  85 /  10  10  20  20
SGJ  72  84  72  83 /  10  10  10  20
GNV  67  90  66  89 /  50  10  10  20
OCF  69  90  68  88 /  30  10  10  20

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

SHULER/NELSON/WALSH

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
1047 AM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

AMZ450-452-454-470-472-474-FLZ020>025-030>033-035>038-040-124-125-
GAZ132>136-149>154-162>166-271000-
COASTAL WATERS FROM ALTAMAHA SOUND
TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM FERNANDINA
BEACH TO ST. AUGUSTINE FL OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM ST.
AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL OUT 20 NM-WATERS FROM ALTAMAHA SOUND
GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM FERNANDINA
BEACH TO ST. AUGUSTINE FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM ST. AUGUSTINE
TO FLAGLER BEACH FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-HAMILTON-SUWANNEE-COLUMBIA-
BAKER-INLAND NASSAU-INLAND DUVAL-UNION-BRADFORD-CLAY-ST. JOHNS-
GILCHRIST-ALACHUA-PUTNAM-FLAGLER-MARION-COASTAL NASSAU-COASTAL DUVAL-
COFFEE-JEFF DAVIS-BACON-APPLING-WAYNE-ATKINSON-WARE-PIERCE-BRANTLEY-
INLAND GLYNN-COASTAL GLYNN-ECHOLS-CLINCH-CHARLTON-INLAND CAMDEN-
COASTAL CAMDEN-
1047 AM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

...STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE NEAR THE I-75 CORRIDOR LATE TODAY...

...ELEVATED RIP CURRENT RISK...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST FLORIDA...SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STORMS WILL DEVELOP ON THE GULF COAST
SEABREEZE NEAR THE I-75 CORRIDOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THIS ACTIVITY
WILL THEN DRIFT SLOWLY TO THE EAST TOWARDS THE HIGHWAY 301 CORRIDOR
THROUGH THIS EVENING. A FEW OF THESE STORMS MAY BECOME STRONG TO
SEVERE WITH STRONG GUSTY WINDS...EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING...AND LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL DUE TO SLOW STORM MOVEMENT.

ONSHORE WINDS AND EASTERLY SWELLS WILL PRODUCE A MODERATE RISK OF
RIP CURRENTS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

ELEVATED RIP CURRENT RISK WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEK.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER
INLAND AREAS THROUGH FRIDAY. STORMS WILL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS THIS
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
IN JACKSONVILLE WEBSITE ON THE INTERNET AT WEATHER.GOV/JAX.

JDS

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