Severe Thunderstorm Warning 64, NWS Jacksonville, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
253 PM EDT WED MAY 20 2015

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

WESTERLY STEERING FLOW THIS AFTERNOON STILL ABLE TO KEEP ATLC
COAST SEA BREEZE FRONT PINNED ALONG THE BEACHES WITH ONLY
NRB/FHB/SGJ SHOWING ONSHORE WINDS AS OF 2PM. THIS ALONG WITH SOME
SUBSIDENCE AND DRIER AIRMASS WORKING IN FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE
AND SOUTHWEST GEORGIA HAS LOWER DEWPOINTS SOMEWHAT OVER FAR INLAND
AREAS AND EXPECT SLIGHTLY LESS COVERAGE INLAND SE GA...WHILE THE
GULF COAST SEA BREEZE IS SLOWLY PUSHING INLAND AND IS EXPECTED TO
TRIGGER SCATTERED CONVECTION ALONG THE I-75 CORRIDOR ON INLD NE FL
WHERE IT SHOULD TRACK EASTWARD AT AROUND 15 MPH AND COLLIDE WITH
ATLC COAST SEA BREEZE JUST INLAND FROM I-95...SO EXPECT BEST
COVERAGE OF STORMS (AROUND 50-60%) FROM JACKSONVILLE SOUTHWARD
ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR AND ST JOHNS RIVER BASIN LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH ISOLATED STRONG STORMS WITH GUSTY
WINDS/SMALL HAIL...COVERAGE MORE ON THE ORDER OF 30-50% FROM
JACKSONVILLE NORTHWARD TO WAYCROSS AND BRUNSWICK WHERE LESS
ACTIVITY INLAND WILL BE AVAILABLE TO COLLIDE WITH ATLC COAST SEA
BREEZE THERE. TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON WELL INTO THE LOWER 90S WITH
HEAT INDICES CLOSE TO 100. STORM ACTIVITY WILL PROGRESS INTO THE
ATLC COASTAL WATERS DURING THE EVENING HOURS AND WEAKEN OVER LAND
AREAS AFTER SUNSET...WITH ALL ACTIVITY ENDING AROUND MIDNIGHT.

OVERNIGHT...EXPECT PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AS CONVECTIVE
DEBRIS CLOUDS SLOWLY DISSIPATE...WITH LOWS NEAR 70 DEGREES INLAND
AND LOWER 70S ALONG THE COAST AS WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS REMAIN CLOSE
TO 5 MPH AND DO NOT EXPECT MUCH IN THE WAY OF ORGANIZED FOG
FORMATION EXCEPT SOME PATCHY 3-5 MILE VSBYS CLOSE TO RAIN COOLED
AREAS.

.SHORT TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)...

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SAG SOUTH TOWARDS THE REGION...MAKING IT TO
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA LATE THURSDAY...ACROSS NORTHEAST FLORIDA
FRIDAY...THEN BECOME DIFFUSE SOUTH OF THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND AS
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION.
SCATTERED STORMS ARE EXPECTED AREA WIDE ON THURSDAY THEN BECOME
ISOLATED AND MORE CONFINED ACROSS NORTHEAST AND NORTH CENTRAL
FLORIDA BY LATE IN THE WEEK AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN BEHIND THE FRONT.
THE DEVELOPNG ONSHORE FLOW WILL BRING IN COOLER AFTERNOON TEMPS
ESPECIALLY TO COASTAL AREAS. MIN TEMPS AT NIGHT WILL BE FROM THE MID
60S INLAND TO THE LOWER/MID 70S COAST.

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

REINFORCING SURFACE RIDGING WILL SLIDE SOUTHEASTWARD TO EAST OF THE
OUTER BANKS BY SUNDAY MORNING. AN ONSHORE FLOW PATTERN WILL PREVAIL
DURING THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...WITH SUBSTANTIAL LOW LEVEL DRY AIR
KEEPING SOUTHEAST GA DRY SUNDAY. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED
COASTAL SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE NE FL.  DEEP ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP
HIGHS AT THE COAST IN THE LOWER 80S...WITH UPPER 80S EXPECTED
INLAND. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S INLAND TO LOWER 70S AT
THE COAST.

DEEP-LAYERED RIDGING WILL THEN AMPLIFY ALONG THE SOUTHEAST U.S.
COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL VEER TO A SOUTHEAST TO
SOUTHERLY DIRECTION...WHICH WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE MOISTURE
LEVELS...AIDING IN SCATTERED DIURNAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG
MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES SUCH AS THE ATLANTIC AND GULF COAST SEA
BREEZES. RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT WILL BOOST HIGHS TO NEAR 90 INLAND ON
MEMORIAL DAY...AND THE LOWER 90S BY TUES. THE ATLANTIC SEA BREEZE
WILL PUSH INLAND BY EARLY AFTERNOON...KEEPING HIGHS AT THE COAST IN
THE MID 80S. LOWS WILL ALSO GRADUALLY WARM A FEW DEGREES...WITH 70-
75 EXPECTED REGION-WIDE.
&&

.AVIATION... SCATTERED STORMS EXPECTED AT MOST TAF LOCATIONS THIS
AFTERNOON MAINLY IN THE 20-23Z TIME FRAME AND HAVE KEPT TEMPO GROUPS
WITH GUSTY WINDS AND MVFR CIGS/VSBYS. SHOWER/STORM ACTIVITY SHOULD
WIND DOWN AROUND SUNSET WITH JUST VFR CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS
OVERNIGHT. WEST TO SOUTHWEST BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL STAY ELEVATED
ENOUGH TO PREVENT MUCH IN THE WAY OF FOG FORMATION EXCEPT BRIEF MVFR
VSBYS AT KGNV/KVQQ AROUND SUNRISE.

&&

.MARINE...
OFFSHORE FLOW IN THE 10-15 KNOT RANGE WITH SEAS 2-4 FT THROUGH
THURSDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. MAIN IMPACT IN THE SHORT
TERM WILL BE OFFSHORE MOVING STORM ACTIVITY. ONSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS
ON FRIDAY AND CONTINUES INTO THE WEEKEND IN THE 15-20 KNOT RANGE
WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 4-6 FT...STILL TOO EARLY TO TELL IF ADVISORY
CONDITIONS WILL BE REACHED BUT MIGHT BE TEMPORARILY ON SATURDAY.

RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK IN THE OFFSHORE FLOW THROUGH THURSDAY THEN
BECOMING MODERATE IN THE ONSHORE FLOW FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  70  91  65  86 /  30  30  10   0
SSI  74  90  70  81 /  40  20  20  10
JAX  71  92  69  86 /  40  30  20  10
SGJ  72  91  72  84 /  40  30  20  10
GNV  71  92  69  90 /  30  40  20  10
OCF  71  91  70  90 /  30  30  30  20

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.

&&

HESS/PETERSON/GUILLET

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
945 AM EDT WED MAY 20 2015

AMZ450-452-454-470-472-474-FLZ020>025-030>033-035>038-040-124-125-
GAZ132>136-149>154-162>166-211000-
COASTAL WATERS FROM ALTAMAHA SOUND TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL OUT
20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST. AUGUSTINE FL OUT
20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM ST. AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL FROM 20 TO
60 NM-
WATERS FROM FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST. AUGUSTINE FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM ST. AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
HAMILTON-SUWANNEE-COLUMBIA-BAKER-INLAND NASSAU-INLAND DUVAL-UNION-
BRADFORD-CLAY-ST. JOHNS-GILCHRIST-ALACHUA-PUTNAM-FLAGLER-MARION-
COASTAL NASSAU-COASTAL DUVAL-COFFEE-JEFF DAVIS-BACON-APPLING-
WAYNE-ATKINSON-WARE-PIERCE-BRANTLEY-INLAND GLYNN-COASTAL GLYNN-
ECHOLS-CLINCH-CHARLTON-INLAND CAMDEN-COASTAL CAMDEN-
945 AM EDT WED MAY 20 2015

...ISOLATED STRONG STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS/SMALL HAIL THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST FLORIDA...SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON
LINGERING INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. A FEW OF THE STORMS WILL
BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS...HAIL...AND LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

CHANCES OF AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING THUNDERSTORMS WILL PREVAIL
EACH DAY. A FEW OF THE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GUSTY
WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

AN INCREASED RISK OF DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS IS POSSIBLE FRIDAY
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS CAN SELF-ACTIVATE IF WARNINGS ARE ISSUED FOR THEIR
LOCATION AND PLEASE RELAY ANY REPORTS OF STORM DAMAGE OR FLOODING.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
IN JACKSONVILLE WEBSITE ON THE INTERNET AT WEATHER.GOV/JAX.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
445 PM EDT WED MAY 20 2015

FLZ032-033-037-202130-
CLAY FL-ST. JOHNS FL-PUTNAM FL-
445 PM EDT WED MAY 20 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN PUTNAM...
SOUTHEASTERN CLAY AND SOUTHWESTERN ST. JOHNS COUNTIES UNTIL 530 PM
EDT...

AT 445 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR
BOSTWICK...OR 11 MILES SOUTH OF GREEN COVE SPRINGS...MOVING EAST AT
20 MPH.

HAIL UP TO NICKEL SIZE IN DIAMETER AND GUSTY WINDS OF 45 TO 55 MPH
CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG WITH POSSIBLE MINOR DAMAGE.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
GREEN COVE SPRINGS...HASTINGS...FRUIT COVE...FEDERAL POINT...
BARDIN...BOSTWICK...PICOLATA...ORANGE MILLS...PENNEY FARMS...
ELKTON...BAKERSVILLE AND SPUDS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REPORT DAMAGE TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY OR YOUR COUNTY
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT.

LAT...LON 2967 8171 2991 8192 3011 8156 2971 8136
TIME...MOT...LOC 2045Z 252DEG 16KT 2983 8165

STRUBLE

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
453 PM EDT WED MAY 20 2015

FLZ033-037-038-202145-
FLAGLER FL-ST. JOHNS FL-PUTNAM FL-
453 PM EDT WED MAY 20 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EAST CENTRAL PUTNAM...
NORTHWESTERN FLAGLER AND SOUTHEASTERN ST. JOHNS COUNTIES UNTIL 545 PM
EDT...

AT 452 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 7
MILES NORTH OF ANDALUSIA...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

HAIL UP TO NICKEL SIZE IN DIAMETER AND GUSTY WINDS OF 45 TO 55 MPH
CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG WITH POSSIBLE MINOR DAMAGE.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
PALM COAST...BUNNELL...CRESCENT CITY...ANDALUSIA...EAST PALATKA AND
ESPANOLA.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REPORT DAMAGE TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY OR YOUR COUNTY
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT.

LAT...LON 2944 8152 2967 8160 2977 8132 2951 8123
TIME...MOT...LOC 2052Z 245DEG 12KT 2960 8144

STRUBLE

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