Severe Thunderstorm Warning 53, NWS Jacksonville, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
221 PM EDT TUE MAY 19 2015

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

SCATTERED SHOWER/STORM ACTIVITY STRUGGLING TO GET STARTED IN
NORTHWEST STEERING FLOW WITH JUST A FEW SHOWERS AS OF 2PM ACROSS
INLAND NORTHEAST FLORIDA. STILL EXPECT 40-60% COVERAGE ACROSS MOST
OF NE FL/SE GA LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING AS BOTH GULF AND
ATLC SEA BREEZES PUSH INLAND AND A FEW OF THE CELL MERGERS MAY BE
ENOUGH TO TRIGGER A FEW STRONG STORMS /SMALL HAIL, GUSTY WINDS AND
LIGHTNING/ WITH LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL DUE TO SLOW STORM MOTION.
MAIN AXIS OF STORMS IS STILL EXPECTED TO BE JUST INLAND FROM THE
COAST BETWEEN THE I-95 AND U.S. 301 CORRIDORS ACROSS BOTH SE GA
AND NORTHEAST FLORIDA. ACTIVITY WILL LINGER INTO THE EVENING HOURS
WITH OUTFLOWS TRIGGERING MORE STORMS FURTHER INLAND ACRS INLD SE
GA BUT OVERALL EXPECT ACTIVITY TO DECLINE AFTER SUNSET /LOSS OF
HEATING/ AND ENDING JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT. FAIR SKIES WITH
DECREASING CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS OVERNIGHT WITH SOME PATCHY
LIGHT FOG POSSIBLE TOWARDS MORNING NEAR RAIN COOLED AREAS. OVERALL
MIN TEMPS NEAR 70 DEGREES.

.SHORT TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)...

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SAG SOUTH TOWARDS THE REGION...AS A BROAD
SURFACE LOW FORMS ALONG IT ACROSS SOUTH GA AND SLOWLY MOVES NE. THE
FRONT WILL MAKE IT INTO SE GA ON THURSDAY AND ACROSS NE FL FRIDAY
AND WILL BE A FOCUS FOR CONVECTION AS STORMS FORM ALONG AND AHEAD OF
IT AND MOVE SE WITH THE STEERING FLOW. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE
TEMPS ALOFT WILL REMAIN FAIRLY COOL (AROUND -10C) SO A FEW STORMS
MAY BE STRONG. HAVE CONTINUED WITH PREVIOUS FCST OF SCATTERED MAINLY
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING STORMS THAT WILL COINCIDE WITH HEATING.
POPS WILL BE MAINLY CONFINED ACROSS NE FL...SOUTH OF THE I-10
CORRIDOR... ON FRIDAY AS DRIER AIR NORTH OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL LIMIT CONVECTION. HOT AFTERNOON TEMPS IN THE LOWER/MID 90S
INLAND AND MID/UPPER 80S COAST BEFORE THE ONSET OF SHOWERS/STORMS.

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

A RIDGE/WEDGE SETUP IS LIKELY FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK... WITH SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW END CHANCE POPS MAINLY MIGRATING
IN FROM THE ATLANTIC. AS ONSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS...SEASONABLY HOT
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL COOL TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
DURING THE REST OF THE PERIOD. SEASONABLY WARM LOW TEMPERATURES WILL
PREVAIL.

&&

.AVIATION...
STILL PRIMARILY VFR THIS AFTERNOON SO FAR AND EXPECT SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS TO DEVELOP ON SEA BREEZE AS IT MOVES INLAND AND
HAVE TRIMMED DOWN TEMPO MVFR THUNDERSTORM TIMES TO MAINLY BTWN
21-24Z...BUT STILL BARELY SUPPORTED BY CURRENT 40-50% POPS AND
HAVE CONTINUED TO INCLUDE POSSIBLE GUSTY WINDS (VRB15G25KT) THE
ACTIVITY AT TAF SITES SHOULD END AROUND 02-03Z WITH JUST VFR
CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS OVERNIGHT...ANY MVFR FOG ISSUES WILL
DEPEND ON WHETHER RAIN OCCURS AT ANY SPECIFIC TAF LOCATION AND
WILL BE ADDRESSED IN LATER TAF ISSUANCES.

&&

.MARINE...
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW AT 10-15 KNOTS WITH LOCAL SELY SEA BREEZES
ALONG THE COAST THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH SEAS 2-4 FT THEN HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN THE MID ATLC COAST INTO THE CAROLINAS LATE
FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND AND WINDS WILL BECOME ONSHORE AND MAY
INCREASE CLOSE TO 15-20 KNOTS WITH SEAS BUILDING INTO THE 4-6 FT
RANGE AND HEADLINES/ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED.

RIP CURRENTS: LOW TO MODERATE RISK OF RIPS WILL CONTINUE THIS WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  69  93  68  92 /  30  40  20  30
SSI  73  87  73  89 /  30  40  40  30
JAX  71  91  71  91 /  40  40  40  30
SGJ  71  87  72  88 /  30  40  40  30
GNV  70  91  70  91 /  30  40  30  30
OCF  70  90  70  90 /  20  30  20  30

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.

&&

HESS/PETERSON/GUILLET

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
448 AM EDT TUE MAY 19 2015

AMZ450-452-454-470-472-474-FLZ020>025-030>033-035>038-040-124-125-
GAZ132>136-149>154-162>166-200830-
COASTAL WATERS FROM ALTAMAHA SOUND TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL OUT
20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST. AUGUSTINE FL OUT
20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM ST. AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL FROM 20 TO
60 NM-
WATERS FROM FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST. AUGUSTINE FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM ST. AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
HAMILTON-SUWANNEE-COLUMBIA-BAKER-INLAND NASSAU-INLAND DUVAL-UNION-
BRADFORD-CLAY-ST. JOHNS-GILCHRIST-ALACHUA-PUTNAM-FLAGLER-MARION-
COASTAL NASSAU-COASTAL DUVAL-COFFEE-JEFF DAVIS-BACON-APPLING-
WAYNE-ATKINSON-WARE-PIERCE-BRANTLEY-INLAND GLYNN-COASTAL GLYNN-
ECHOLS-CLINCH-CHARLTON-INLAND CAMDEN-COASTAL CAMDEN-
448 AM EDT TUE MAY 19 2015

...MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS TODAY...
...ISOLATED STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST FLORIDA...
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS AT AREA BEACHES. LIFE THREATENING
RIP CURRENTS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE SURF ZONE.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
ISOLATED STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS THE MAIN THREATS. SLOW STORM MOTION
GENERALLY TO THE EAST AT 5 MPH MAY ALSO PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL. MOST STORM ACTIVITY SHOULD WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE
AFTER 9 PM THIS EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

THERE IS A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY. A FEW STORMS MAY BE STRONG WITH THE MAIN THREATS
FREQUENT LIGHTNING...GUSTY WINDS...AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

AN INCREASED RISK OF DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS IS POSSIBLE SATURDAY
THROUGH MONDAY DUE TO MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
IN JACKSONVILLE WEBSITE ON THE INTERNET AT WEATHER.GOV/JAX.

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