Severe Thunderstorm Warning 313, NWS Jacksonville, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
901 AM EDT SAT SEP 12 2015

...A FEW STRONG TO LOCALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON...

...COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY...

.UPDATE...
A SWATH OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS IS WEAKENING AS IT
APPROACHES THE ATLANTIC COAST. A SOLID AREA OF SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED TSTMS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT IS GRADUALLY MOVING E/SE
ACROSS INTERIOR SE GA TO THE FL PANHANDLE. IN BETWEEN THESE
AREAS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS MORNING...EXPECT JUST A FEW
SHOWERS WITH MOST AREAS DRY ALBEIT CLOUDY. LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION
MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT NUDGING THE LINE OF SHWRS/TSTMS
SOUTH INTO NE FL THIS AFTN...SO WILL RETAIN WIDESPREAD POPS FOR
MOST AREAS. WITH DENSE CLOUD COVER FOR MOST AREAS...INSTABILITY
MAY NOT BE TOTALLY REALIZED...THUS WILL KEEP TSTM COVERAGE AT
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THIS AFTN. WITH DEEP LAYER SPEED SHEAR
WHATEVER TSTMS DO DEVELOP HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE GUSTY
TO LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS....ESPECIALLY ACROSS NE FL WHERE THE
GREATEST CHANCE EXISTS FOR SOME CLOUD BREAKS LATER THIS MORNING.
GIVEN AMPLE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE...WILL RETAIN HEAVY RAIN WORDING
FOR THIS AFTN AS WELL. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE SUPPRESSED BY
CLOUDS/PRECIP...WITH LOWER/MID 80S FOR MOST LOCATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR/AREAS OF MVFR IN MAINLY LIGHT RAIN WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS. EXPECT WIDESRPEAD MVFR THIS AFTN IN STEADIER
PRECIP...WITH TEMPO GROUPS FOR GUSTY TSTMS FOR MAINLY NE FL SITES.
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR FOR SSI AND THE NE FL SITES EARLY
THIS EVENING...WITH IMPROVEMENT FOR GNV MIDNIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
SW WINDS WILL INCREASE AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES LATE TODAY
WITH CAUTION CONDITIONS OFFSHORE BY LATE AFTN/EVENING. WINDS
WILL SHIFT TO THE NW LATER TNGT...GRADUALLY DECREASING AND
VEERING TO THE NE FOR SUNDAY.

RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  80  63  83  56 / 100  20   0   0
SSI  81  66  80  65 /  90  40   0   0
JAX  82  66  83  61 /  90  30  10   0
SGJ  84  69  82  69 /  90  50  20  10
GNV  82  67  83  61 /  90  40  10  10
OCF  84  69  85  64 /  90  40  20  10

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

ALLEN/COMBS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
413 AM EDT SAT SEP 12 2015

AMZ450-452-454-470-472-474-FLZ020>025-030>033-035>038-040-124-125-
GAZ132>136-149>154-162>166-130830-
COASTAL WATERS FROM ALTAMAHA SOUND TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL OUT
20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST. AUGUSTINE FL OUT
20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM ST. AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL FROM 20 TO
60 NM-
WATERS FROM FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST. AUGUSTINE FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM ST. AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
HAMILTON-SUWANNEE-COLUMBIA-BAKER-INLAND NASSAU-INLAND DUVAL-UNION-
BRADFORD-CLAY-ST. JOHNS-GILCHRIST-ALACHUA-PUTNAM-FLAGLER-MARION-
COASTAL NASSAU-COASTAL DUVAL-COFFEE-JEFF DAVIS-BACON-APPLING-
WAYNE-ATKINSON-WARE-PIERCE-BRANTLEY-INLAND GLYNN-COASTAL GLYNN-
ECHOLS-CLINCH-CHARLTON-INLAND CAMDEN-COASTAL CAMDEN-
413 AM EDT SAT SEP 12 2015

...ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE TODAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST FLORIDA...
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY. ISOLATED
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER NORTHEAST FLORIDA.
THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE GUSTY WINDS OF 50 TO 60 MPH IN THE
STRONGER STORMS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS EXPECTED AT TIMES.
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL END FROM NORTH TO SOUTH LATER THIS
EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE.

THERE WILL BE AN INCREASED RISK OF RIP CURRENTS BY MONDAY AND
CONTINUE MUCH OF THE WEEK DUE TO PERSISTENT EASTERLY FLOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO SELF ACTIVATE IF WARNINGS ARE ISSUED
TODAY.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
IN JACKSONVILLE WEBSITE ON THE INTERNET AT WEATHER.GOV/JAX.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
1212 PM EDT SAT SEP 12 2015

FLZ035-121645-
GILCHRIST FL-
1212 PM EDT SAT SEP 12 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR GILCHRIST COUNTY UNTIL 1245 PM
EDT...

AT 1212 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM
NEAR BELL...MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH.

GUSTY WINDS OF 40 TO 50 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG WITH POSSIBLE
MINOR WIND DAMAGE.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
TRENTON...BELL AND FANNING SPRINGS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REPORT DAMAGE TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY OR YOUR COUNTY
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT.

LAT...LON 2980 8292 2983 8292 2982 8291 2983 8289
      2986 8288 2988 8288 2991 8285 2992 8278
      2990 8277 2989 8275 2988 8275 2986 8274
      2982 8268 2959 8266 2960 8295
TIME...MOT...LOC 1612Z 248DEG 33KT 2978 8290

ZIBURA

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
1255 PM EDT SAT SEP 12 2015

FLZ036-121730-
ALACHUA FL-
1255 PM EDT SAT SEP 12 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL ALACHUA COUNTY UNTIL 130
PM EDT...

AT 1255 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM
OVER ARCHER...OR 7 MILES NORTHEAST OF BRONSON...MOVING NORTHEAST AT
20 MPH.

GUSTY WINDS OF 45 TO 55 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG WITH POSSIBLE MINOR
WIND DAMAGE.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
GAINESVILLE...ALACHUA...HIGH SPRINGS...ARCHER...GAINESVILLE
AIRPORT...UNIVERSITY OF FLORIDA...NEWBERRY AND LA CROSSE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REPORT DAMAGE TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY OR YOUR COUNTY
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT.

LAT...LON 2954 8255 2954 8265 2988 8254 2983 8219
      2948 8234 2948 8256
TIME...MOT...LOC 1655Z 225DEG 18KT 2950 8253

ZIBURA

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