Severe Thunderstorm Warning 287, NWS Jacksonville, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
242 PM EDT WED AUG 19 2015

.NEAR TERM...THIS AFTERNOON THRU THU...

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND T-STORMS EXPECTED ACROSS
FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON...INITIALLY ALONG SEA BREEZES AS THEY
CONVERGE JUST W OF I-95 CORRIDOR LATE IN THE DAY...THEN WITH
SUBSEQUENT OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. ACTIVITY SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH
DURING THE EVENING. LOW TEMPS TONIGHT SHOULD BE MID 70S
INLAND...UPR 70S COAST.

FOR THURSDAY...SIMILAR SETUP SHOULD SUPPORT A SIMILAR EVOLUTION
WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/T-STORMS ALONG SEA BREEZES...BECOMING MORE
NUMEROUS LATE IN THE DAY AS SEA BREEZES MERGE OVER EASTERN
COUNTIES. CONTINUED SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS WITH HIGHS IN LWR-
MID 90S INLAND...NEAR 90 COAST.

.SHORT TERM...THU NIGHT THROUGH WEEKEND...

PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY FLATTEN OVER
FL WITH UPPER LEVEL FLOW GRADUALLY BACKING FROM NW TO THE WSW BY
SUN. IN THE LOWER LEVELS A TROUGH AXIS OVER THE AREA SAT BECOMES
DIFFUSE AND RETROGRADES INTO SUN AS A WEAK HIGH BUILDS IN FROM THE
ATLANTIC ON SUNDAY. PRECIPITABLE WATER CONTENT REMAIN EXPECTED TO
REMAIN JUICY WITH VALUES NEAR 2 INCHES. THIS PATTERN COMBINED WITH
MOISTURE PROFILE AND DAYTIME HEATING WILL BRING ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS
DUE TO MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND ALSO CONTINUE NEAR TO ABOVE
NORMAL DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS/TSTORMS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
AND GUSTY WET DOWNBURSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN STRONGER STORM CELLS.

.LONG TERM...MON-WED...

A MEAN LAYER TROUGH WILL DEEPEN DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD STATES
WITH DRIER AIR FILTERING IN FROM THE NW OVER SE GA DROPPING
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES TO 1.5-2 INCHES. IN THE LOWER LEVELS A
WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO STALL AND BECOME DIFFUSE ACROSS
SE GA WHILE THE BERMUDA RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS ACROSS N-CENTRAL FL.
THIS PATTERN SUPPORTS A CONTINUATION OF DAILY DIURNALLY DRIVEN SEA
BREEZE SHOWERS/TSTORMS WITH LOWER RAIN CHANCES DUE TO DRIER AIR
ALOFT. THE BEST CHANCES OF PRECIP ARE EXPECTED OVER FL DUE TO
HIGHER MOISTURE WHERE 40-50% RAIN CHANCES WERE ADVERTISED UNDER
SEA BREEZE AND OUTFLOW FORCING. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE
POSSIBLE BOTH DAYS DUE TO SLOW STORM MOTION. HIGH TEMPS WILL RANGE
IN THE LOW/MID 90S WITH LOW TEMPS IN THE LOW/MID 70S.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS EXCEPT LOWER WITHIN SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND T-STORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. GREATEST COVERAGE
EXPECTED TO BE AROUND INLAND TAF SITES 20Z-00Z...WITH DECREASING
COVERAGE AFTER 00Z. INCLUDED POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY WINDS WITH TSRA
IN TAFS.

&&

.MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN EAST OF THE REGION THROUGH
THURSDAY. THIS RIDGE WILL BREAK DOWN TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK
AS A WEAK FRONT PUSHES INTO SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND THEN DISSIPATES.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD NORTH OF THE AREA ON SUNDAY.

SWELLS FROM DANNY WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE IN THE COASTAL WATERS
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK TODAY AND THU.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  74  94  74  95 /  40  50  30  40
SSI  77  91  76  92 /  30  50  30  30
JAX  75  92  74  94 /  40  60  20  50
SGJ  76  90  76  92 /  30  60  20  30
GNV  73  91  73  93 /  20  60  10  50
OCF  74  91  74  92 /  20  60  10  50

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

WOLF/ENYEDI/COMBS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
244 PM EDT WED AUG 19 2015

AMZ450-452-454-470-472-474-FLZ020>025-030>033-035>038-040-124-125-
GAZ132>136-149>154-162>166-201845-
COASTAL WATERS FROM ALTAMAHA SOUND TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL OUT
20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST. AUGUSTINE FL OUT
20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM ST. AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL FROM 20 TO
60 NM-
WATERS FROM FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST. AUGUSTINE FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM ST. AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
HAMILTON-SUWANNEE-COLUMBIA-BAKER-INLAND NASSAU-INLAND DUVAL-UNION-
BRADFORD-CLAY-ST. JOHNS-GILCHRIST-ALACHUA-PUTNAM-FLAGLER-MARION-
COASTAL NASSAU-COASTAL DUVAL-COFFEE-JEFF DAVIS-BACON-APPLING-
WAYNE-ATKINSON-WARE-PIERCE-BRANTLEY-INLAND GLYNN-COASTAL GLYNN-
ECHOLS-CLINCH-CHARLTON-INLAND CAMDEN-COASTAL CAMDEN-
244 PM EDT WED AUG 19 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST FLORIDA...
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A
FEW STRONG TO BRIEFLY SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH STRONG
GUSTY WINDS AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS ALSO
POSSIBLE AS STORM MOTION WILL BE SLOW AT AROUND 10 MPH OR LESS.
THE BEST CHANCE OF STORMS WILL BE BETWEEN 3 PM AND 7 PM. MOST OF
THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD DISSIPATE BY LATE EVENING
TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...WITH A SLIGHT DECREASE IN COVERAGE OF STORMS OVER THE
WEEKEND.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS REQUESTED IF WARNINGS ARE ISSUED.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
IN JACKSONVILLE WEBSITE ON THE INTERNET AT WEATHER.GOV/JAX.

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