Severe Thunderstorm Warning 270, NWS Jacksonville, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
157 PM EDT FRI AUG 7 2015

...STRONG TO ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SCATTERED/NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND TSTMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THIS
AFTN AS A SHORTWAVE ROTATES ACROSS THE AREA. NOT MUCH IN THE
WAY OF STRONG/SEVERE STORMS YET...HOWEVER WITH SOME DEEP LAYER
SHEAR AND THE LIKELYHOOD OF SOME BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS LATER THIS
AFTN...A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT WITH
GUSTY/DAMAGING WINDS THE MAIN THREAT. ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH EARLY
THIS EVENING AS THE TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS TO THE SOUTH AND HEATING IS
LOST. MID 70S WILL PREVAIL FOR LOWS TNGT.

SATURDAY...A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL NUDGE SOUTH TO NEAR THE
FL/GA BORDER BY SATURDAY AFTN. WITH DRIER AIR WORKING INTO
MOST OF SE GA...WILL KEEP POPS ISOLATED AT MOST THERE. WITH DEEPER
MOISTURE ACROSS NE FL...POPS WILL RANGE FROM WIDELY SCATTERED
ALONG THE I-10 CORRIDOR TO MID/HIGH END SCATTERED FOR NORTH
CENTRAL FL. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 90 ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL
FL TO THE MID 90S FOR INLAND NE FL AND SE GA.

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AREA ON EASTERN SIDE OF STRONG SRN PLAINS UPPER HIGH. MODEL
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS BETTER RAIN CHANCES SOUTHERN AREAS VS. NORTHERN
AREAS...WILL GO WITH 40 POPS SOUTHERN COUNTIES IN OUR FORECAST
AREA...20-30 POP FURTHER NORTH. WARMEST TEMPS WILL BE INTERIOR
PART OF NORTHEAST FL AND SOUTHEAST GA...WILL GO WITH MID 90S
THERE...LWR 90S EASTERN COUNTIES...UPR 80S COAST. NEAR NORMAL
LOWS WILL PREVAIL SUNDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MON-WED...SRN PLAINS UPPER HIGH RETROGRADES WESTWARD WHILE TROUGH
DEVELOPS OVER EASTERN STATES...WITH COLD FRONT APPROACHING SRN GA
WED. NOT MUCH PRECIP COVERAGE ANTICIPATED MONDAY...HAVE 30 POP
S...20 POP ELSEWHERE. RAIN CHANCES INCREASE TUESDAY...AND
ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY WITH APPROACHING FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH OVER
AREA...HAVE LIKELY POPS OVER MUCH OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY. FOR THU-
FRI...PRECIP FOCUS SHIFTS SOUTHWARD...AND HAVE LIKELY POPS SRN
AREAS...50 POP ALONG I-10 CORRIDOR...30-40 ACROSS SE GA.

WITH UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER THE AREA LATER IN THE WEEK...WOULD
ANTICIPATE A SLIGHT COOLING TREND. LIKELY TO SEE SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPS...MID 90S...INTERIOR SE GA/NE FL MON/TUE WITH LOWER
90S FURTHER EAST AND UPR 80S COAST. BY THU/FRI...HIGHS WILL COOL
TO AROUND 90 INTERIOR SE GA/NE FL...WITH UPR 80S FURTHER EAST...MID
80S COAST.

&&

.AVIATION...
WILL USE VCTS FOR ALL SITES THIS AFTN...WITH TEMPO GROUPS
19-22Z FOR PERIODS OF MVFR AND WIND GUSTS TO 30 KT IN THE
STRONGER STORMS. ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH EARLY THIS EVENING
WITH VFR PREVAILING.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS HAVE DECREASED A BIT AT BUOY 41008...DOWN TO 15-20 KT
THIS AFTN. HOWEVER...WITH ANOTHER SURGE ANTICIPATED THIS EVENING
WILL KEEP THE SCA FOR WINDS UP FOR THE OUTER WATERS THROUGH
TONIGHT. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE SATURDAY...WITH WINDS BECOMING
LIGHT ONSHORE FOR THE LAST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. OFFSHORE WINDS
WILL DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN NEXT WEEK WITH SPEEDS REMAINING UNDER
CAUTION CRITERIA.

RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK THROUGH SATURDAY WITH OFFSHORE FLOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  74  96  75  95 /  20  10  10  20
SSI  77  87  76  87 /  20  20  10  20
JAX  75  94  76  92 /  30  20  10  30
SGJ  77  89  75  88 /  40  40  20  30
GNV  76  92  74  93 /  40  40  20  40
OCF  75  90  74  92 /  50  50  20  40

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 6 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     WATERS FROM ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL FROM
     20 TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST. AUGUSTINE
     FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM ST. AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER
     BEACH FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

ALLEN/WOLF

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
1040 AM EDT FRI AUG 7 2015

AMZ450-452-454-470-472-474-FLZ020>025-030>033-035>038-040-124-125-
GAZ132>136-149>154-162>166-081000-
COASTAL WATERS FROM ALTAMAHA SOUND
TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM FERNANDINA
BEACH TO ST. AUGUSTINE FL OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM ST.
AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL OUT 20 NM-WATERS FROM ALTAMAHA SOUND
GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM FERNANDINA
BEACH TO ST. AUGUSTINE FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM ST. AUGUSTINE
TO FLAGLER BEACH FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-HAMILTON-SUWANNEE-COLUMBIA-
BAKER-INLAND NASSAU-INLAND DUVAL-UNION-BRADFORD-CLAY-ST. JOHNS-
GILCHRIST-ALACHUA-PUTNAM-FLAGLER-MARION-COASTAL NASSAU-COASTAL DUVAL-
COFFEE-JEFF DAVIS-BACON-APPLING-WAYNE-ATKINSON-WARE-PIERCE-BRANTLEY-
INLAND GLYNN-COASTAL GLYNN-ECHOLS-CLINCH-CHARLTON-INLAND CAMDEN-
COASTAL CAMDEN-1040 AM EDT FRI AUG 7 2015

...SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS TODAY...

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST FLORIDA...
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STORMS WILL SHIFT SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA
TODAY. STRONG STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE...WITH A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE
STORMS THIS AFTERNOON. GUSTY TO LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE
MAIN THREAT.

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS IS IN EFFECT FOR THE OFFSHORE
WATERS DUE TO SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY. AN INCREASE TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
IN JACKSONVILLE WEBSITE ON THE INTERNET AT WEATHER.GOV/JAX.

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