Severe Thunderstorm Warning 249, NWS Jacksonville, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
320 PM EDT THU JUL 23 2015

...HEAT ADVISORY FOR MOST AREAS REST OF THIS AFTERNOON...

...STRONG TO ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS THIS LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...

...STRONG TO ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WITH POCKETS OF HEAVY RAIN
FRIDAY AFTERNOON...

.NEAR TERM /REST OF THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT/...
MOIST LOW LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO PERSIST ACROSS THE
REGION. 12Z JAX SOUNDING HAS INCREASED TO 2.14" THIS MORNING. OUR
REGION IS BETWEEN FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER SOUTH CAROLINA AND
NORTHERN GORGIA AND RIDGE ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA. THERE IS AMPLE
SUNSHINE AND HEATING THIS AFTERNOON WHICH WILL FURNISH SCATTERED
TO NUMEROUS SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM. THUNDERSTORMS HAVE INITIALLY
DEVELOPED NORTH CENTRAL FL THIS EARLY AFTERNOON. THESE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ANTICIPATED TO MOVE NORTHWARD TOWARD THE
INTERSTATE 10 REGION BY LATE AFTERNOON. HRRR/ARW GUIDANCE INDICATE
SOME WEAKENING IN THE OFFSHORE FLOW BY LATE AFT WHICH SHOULD ALLOW
THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE TO FORM ALONG THE COAST AND MOVE TO A1A
REGION AND POTENTIALLY TO I-95. ACROSS GEORGIA...A LITTLE LATER
START TO CONVECTION. THE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS DO SHOW INCREASE
OF CONVECTION DURING THE MID/LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA
TRANSLATING SOUTHEASTWARD DURING THE EARLY AND MID EVENING ACROSS
CENTRAL GEORGIA MOVING INTO SE GEORGIA. PER THE HIGH RESOLUTION
MODELS...THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL POTENTIALLY INCREASE ACROSS SE
GA FROM 23Z TO 03Z PUSHING JUST SOUTH OF THE GEORGIA/FLORIDA
BORDER TO JUST NORTH OF I-10. MAIN THREATS WILL BE FREQUENT
LIGHTNING AND STRONG DOWNBURST WINDS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL
ALSO BE A CONCERN FOR ANY SLOWER MOVING STORMS. DURING THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD...THE SW FLOW WILL LIKELY BRING SOME SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS TO THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA AND
WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS WITH SOME OF THESE
STORMS MOVING INTO NORTH CENTRAL FLORIDA REGION AROUND DAYBREAK.
IN ADDITION...WITH THE SFC TROF WILL BE NEAR THE NORTHERN CWA
BOUNDARY. HENCE...HAVE PUT IN SCATTERED RAIN WITH EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE FAR WESTERN SECTIONS OF INTERIOR SE GA.

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

MAIN CONCERN FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR
HEAVY RAINFALL AND LOCALIZED FLOODING. VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE
ATMOSPHERE WILL BE IN PLACE AS A SURFACE TROUGH SETTLES SOUTH
ACROSS THE AREA AND BRINGS NUMEROUS TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
STORMS FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. 48 HOUR
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL AVERAGE 2 TO 3 INCHES WITH THE HIGHEST
AMOUNTS EXPECTED ACROSS NE FL. LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS CAN BE
EXPECTED. WE DECIDED AGAINST A FLOOD WATCH SINCE ANY FLOODING
CONCERNS WILL REMAIN LOCALIZED.

RAIN WILL BEGIN EARLY THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AND MAY ALSO LINGER
THROUGH THE NIGHT...ESPECIALLY FRIDAY NIGHT ACROSS NE FL AS THE
TROUGH AXIS SETTLES NEAR THE FL/GA BORDER. THE EARLY START TO
PRECIPITATION AND THE INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP TEMPS DOWN
AND WE HAVE LEANED ON THE LOWER END OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE WITH
RESPECT TO MAX TEMPS THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS WILL ALSO HOLD
CAPE VALUES DOWN WHICH SHOULD HELP DIMINISH THE THREAT OF SEVERE
STORMS. THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE HEAVY RAINFALL.

THE TROUGH WILL TRANSITION JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA BY SUNDAY WITH
ONSHORE FLOW EXPECTED ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE
LOWER AND MAINLY CONFINED TO NE FL WHERE WIDELY SCATTERED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY MOVE IN OFF OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
DEPENDING ON WHERE THE WEAK LOW DEVELOPS OFFSHORE ON THE STALLED
TROUGH AXIS.

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

ONSHORE FLOW ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL TRANSITION BACK TO
OFFSHORE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW BY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. INITIAL
RIDGING OVER THE AREA WILL HELP TO SUPPRESS CONVECTION A BIT EARLY
IN THE WEEK BUT TROUGHING WILL TAKE BACK OVER BY MID WEEK
RESULTING IN A MOIST AND UNSTABLE SOUTHWEST FLOW AND A RETURN TO
ABOVE NORMAL AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION.

&&

.AVIATION... VFR WILL GENERALLY PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
SOME INTERMITTENT MVFR VIS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT VQQ 09-12Z. WITH
SCATTERED TSTM COVERAGE THIS AFTN...HAVE USED VCTS AND TEMPO
GROUPS FOR ALL SITES. TSTMS WILL DIMINISH OVER AREA TERMINALS
AFTER 03Z THIS EVENING...WITH SAINT SIMONS STILL POTENTIALLY
HAVING LINGERING TSTMS THROUGH THE LATER PART OF THE EVENING.
TSTMS MAY POTENTIALLY DEVELOP EARLIER IN THE DAY ON FRIDAY...WITH
VCTS PUT IN THE FORECAST DURING THE EARLY DAYLIGHT HOURS DUE TO
AMPLE SWLY FLOW AND ENCROACHING SFC FRONT.

&&

.MARINE...OFFSHORE FLOW WILL PREVAIL THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH
PERIODS OF CAUTION LEVEL WINDS OFFSHORE. WINDS WILL TURN TO
ONSHORE FOR THE WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A TROUGH MOVES SOUTH OF
THE REGION.

RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK THROUGH FRIDAY WITH MAINLY OFFSHORE FLOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  76  92  75  93 /  50  70  40  50
SSI  78  90  78  89 /  60  70  40  40
JAX  76  90  75  90 /  60  80  40  70
SGJ  77  90  76  88 /  40  70  40  60
GNV  77  88  76  90 /  30  70  50  80
OCF  76  88  75  88 /  30  70  50  80

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR BAKER-BRADFORD-
     CLAY-COASTAL DUVAL-COASTAL NASSAU-COLUMBIA-FLAGLER-HAMILTON-
     INLAND DUVAL-INLAND NASSAU-PUTNAM-ST. JOHNS-UNION.

GA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR APPLING-ATKINSON-
     BACON-BRANTLEY-CHARLTON-CLINCH-COASTAL CAMDEN-COASTAL GLYNN-
     COFFEE-ECHOLS-INLAND CAMDEN-INLAND GLYNN-JEFF DAVIS-PIERCE-
     WARE-WAYNE.

AM...NONE.
&&

CORDERO/SHULER/WALSH

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
335 AM EDT THU JUL 23 2015

AMZ450-452-454-470-472-474-FLZ020>025-030>033-035>038-040-124-125-
GAZ132>136-149>154-162>166-241000-
COASTAL WATERS FROM ALTAMAHA SOUND TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL OUT
20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST. AUGUSTINE FL OUT
20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM ST. AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL FROM 20 TO
60 NM-
WATERS FROM FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST. AUGUSTINE FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM ST. AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
HAMILTON-SUWANNEE-COLUMBIA-BAKER-INLAND NASSAU-INLAND DUVAL-UNION-
BRADFORD-CLAY-ST. JOHNS-GILCHRIST-ALACHUA-PUTNAM-FLAGLER-MARION-
COASTAL NASSAU-COASTAL DUVAL-COFFEE-JEFF DAVIS-BACON-APPLING-
WAYNE-ATKINSON-WARE-PIERCE-BRANTLEY-INLAND GLYNN-COASTAL GLYNN-
ECHOLS-CLINCH-CHARLTON-INLAND CAMDEN-COASTAL CAMDEN-
335 AM EDT THU JUL 23 2015

...HEAT ADVISORY THIS AFTERNOON...

...STRONG TO LOCALLY SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND
FRIDAY AFTERNOON...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST FLORIDA...SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S FOR MOST AREAS
TODAY...AND WITH HUMID CONDITIONS PERSISTING...MAXIMUM HEAT
INDEX READINGS OF 108 TO 113 WILL BE LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON. A
HEAT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR MOST AREAS.

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING THUNDERSTORMS
CAN BE EXPECTED. STRONG STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE...WITH GUSTY
WINDS...FREQUENT LIGHTNING...AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL THE MAIN
IMPACTS. A FEW SEVERE STORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH DAMAGING
WINDS THE MAIN THREAT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. STRONG STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE...WITH
GUSTY WINDS...FREQUENT LIGHTNING...AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL THE
MAIN IMPACTS. A FEW SEVERE STORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH DAMAGING
WINDS THE MAIN THREAT. STORM COVERAGE WILL DECREASE SUNDAY INTO THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY WITH AFTERNOON HEAT
INDICES OF 100 TO 105 DEGREES. LOWER HEAT INDICES ARE EXPECTED
THIS WEEKEND.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
IN JACKSONVILLE WEBSITE ON THE INTERNET AT WEATHER.GOV/JAX.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
551 PM EDT THU JUL 23 2015

FLZ024-GAZ164-165-232230-
INLAND NASSAU FL-INLAND CAMDEN GA-CHARLTON GA-
551 PM EDT THU JUL 23 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NASSAU AND SOUTHEASTERN CHARLTON
COUNTIES UNTIL 630 PM EDT...

AT 551 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 9
MILES SOUTHWEST OF FOLKSTON...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

EXCESSIVE CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS OF 45 TO 55 MPH
CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG WITH POSSIBLE MINOR DAMAGE.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
HILLIARD...FOLKSTON...CALLAHAN...HOMELAND...ST. GEORGE...KINGS
FERRY...RATLIFF...NASSAU VILLAGE-RATLIFF AND BRYCEVILLE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REPORT DAMAGE TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY OR YOUR COUNTY
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD
TO FLASH FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

&&

LAT...LON 3054 8174 3054 8176 3051 8178 3051 8179
      3035 8198 3064 8220 3078 8215 3079 8218
      3089 8207 3078 8172 3056 8172
TIME...MOT...LOC 2151Z 300DEG 27KT 3073 8212

GUILLET

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
634 PM EDT THU JUL 23 2015

FLZ023-024-GAZ164-232315-
BAKER FL-INLAND NASSAU FL-CHARLTON GA-
634 PM EDT THU JUL 23 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL BAKER...SOUTHWESTERN
NASSAU AND SOUTHEASTERN CHARLTON COUNTIES UNTIL 715 PM EDT...

AT 634 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR
TAYLOR...OR 21 MILES NORTH OF RAIFORD...MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.

GUSTY WINDS OF 45 TO 55 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG WITH POSSIBLE MINOR
WIND DAMAGE.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
TAYLOR...MACCLENNY...GLEN ST. MARY AND ST. GEORGE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REPORT DAMAGE TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY OR YOUR COUNTY
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 15 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

&&

LAT...LON 3029 8202 3025 8227 3046 8230 3060 8196
      3036 8194
TIME...MOT...LOC 2234Z 250DEG 16KT 3038 8223

ENYEDI

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
652 PM EDT THU JUL 23 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0635 PM     TSTM WND GST     JESUP                   31.60N 81.89W
07/23/2015  M42 MPH          WAYNE              GA   AWOS

&&

AENYEDI