Severe Thunderstorm Warning 243, NWS Jacksonville, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
236 PM EDT WED JUL 22 2015

...HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TOMORROW...

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/... THE HEAT ADVISORY IS VERIFYING
QUITE NICELY WITH TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S COUPLED WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 70S WITH HEAT INDICES AVERAGING AROUND 110
DEGREES. JAX RECORDED A HEAT INDEX OF 111 DEGREES JUST RECENTLY.
MUCH LESS THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON
COMPARED TO PREVIOUS DAYS AS UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT IS GREATLY
LACKING. NEVERTHELESS...HIGH MOISTURE AND STRONG INSTABILITY WILL
SUPPORT WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED STORMS DURING THE REST OF
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. STORMS WILL BUILD EAST TOWARDS THE I-95
CORRIDOR THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON AND THEN QUICKLY WIND DOWN EARLY
THIS EVENING WITH A QUIET AND MUGGY EVENING IN STORE FOR THE AREA.
ISOLATED STRONG STORMS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE CAPABLE OF EXCESSIVE
LIGHTNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...AND GUSTY WINDS UP TO 40 TO 50 MPH.

THURSDAY...LOCAL WEATHER PATTERN IS LOCKED IN A
REPEATING...GROUNDHOG DAY...LIKE PATTERN AS THE EAST COAST TROUGH
REMAINS IN PLACE AND CONVECTION FIRES IN A FAMILIAR PATTERN IN THE
MEAN UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY FLOW! THE OLD PRE-FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL LAY ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL FLORIDA WITH EARLY CONVECTION ALONG
THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE NWS JACKSONVILLE AREA OF
RESPONSIBILITY. BY LATER AFTERNOON CONVECTION FIRES OVER SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND DROPS SOUTH TOWARD INTERSTATE
10 AND NORTH FLORIDA. THIS SHOULD INTERACT WITH THE ATLANTIC SEA
BREEZE FRONT FIRING SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ALONG THE EAST
COAST/ST JOHNS RIVER COUNTIES. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE
UPPER 90S AGAIN OVER INTERIOR SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND THE SUWANNEE
RIVER VALLEY. ELSEWHERE TEMPS WILL TOP OUT IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S
ON THURSDAY. EXPECT HEAT INDEX VALUES AROUND ADVISORY LEVEL.

.LONGER TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ON FRIDAY...THE CONVECTION SHOULD INITIATE A BIT EARLIER AND BE
MORE WIDESPREAD SO THIS WILL HELP TO KEEP THE HIGH TEMPERATURES
DOWN INTO THE LOWER 90S IN MOST PLACES.

WEEKEND AND BEYOND...THE MORE THINGS CHANGE...THE MORE THEY STAY THE
SAME. LOCKED IN A PATTERN WITH A MEAN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ALONG THE
EAST COAST AND UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR WEST A MEAN
NORTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION. THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MEANDER BACK AND FORTH OVER THE LOCAL AREA
ENHANCING AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION.

SOME MODELS INDICATE POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT OFF THE FLORIDA/SOUTHEAST
COAST LATE IN THE PERIOD. RIGHT NOW IF IT DEVELOPS THE ECMWF IS
MOVING IT NORTH AWAY FROM THE AREA AND GFS IS VERY RESERVED IN
DEVELOPMENT...SO NOT MUCH TO SPECULATE ON FOR US AT THIS POINT BUT
COULD LEAD TO REDUCED RAIN CHANCES IF IT INDEED DEVELOPS AS ECMWF
SUGGESTS.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OUTSIDE OF AFTERNOON CONVECTION. LOWER
COVERAGE OF STORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON SO WE WILL KEEP
VCTS IN PLACE FOR NOW. SHORT TERM AMENDMENTS MAY BE NEEDED FOR ANY
STORMS THAT HEAD TOWARDS ANY OF THE TERMINALS. STORMS SHOULD BE
BRIEF BUT WILL BE CAPABLE OF HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN WITH NOCTURNAL SURGE THIS
EVENING AND WE WILL CARRY AN SCEC HEADLINE ACROSS THE OFFSHORE
LEGS TO ACCOUNT FOR WINDSPEEDS OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS THIS EVENING.
OFFSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WITH
SCEC CONDITIONS IN NOCTURNAL SURGES EACH EVENING. TROUGH AXIS WILL
SHIFT SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION ON SATURDAY WITH WINDS BECOMING
ONSHORE OVER THE WEEKEND AND CONTINUING THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK
WITH NO HEADLINES EXPECTED.

RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  77  96  76  93 /  30  40  60  60
SSI  79  93  78  91 /  30  50  60  60
JAX  76  96  77  91 /  20  50  60  70
SGJ  79  94  79  90 /  20  40  60  60
GNV  76  93  77  90 /  20  50  50  70
OCF  77  91  77  89 /  20  50  50  70

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR BAKER-BRADFORD-
     CLAY-COASTAL DUVAL-COASTAL NASSAU-COLUMBIA-FLAGLER-HAMILTON-
     INLAND DUVAL-INLAND NASSAU-PUTNAM-ST. JOHNS-SUWANNEE-UNION.

GA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR APPLING-ATKINSON-
     BACON-BRANTLEY-CHARLTON-CLINCH-COASTAL CAMDEN-COASTAL GLYNN-
     COFFEE-ECHOLS-INLAND CAMDEN-INLAND GLYNN-JEFF DAVIS-PIERCE-
     WARE-WAYNE.

AM...NONE.
&&

SHULER/SANDRIK/WALSH

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
322 AM EDT WED JUL 22 2015

AMZ450-452-454-470-472-474-FLZ020>025-030>033-035>038-040-124-125-
GAZ132>136-149>154-162>166-231000-
COASTAL WATERS FROM ALTAMAHA SOUND TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL OUT
20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST. AUGUSTINE FL OUT
20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM ST. AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL FROM 20 TO
60 NM-
WATERS FROM FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST. AUGUSTINE FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM ST. AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
HAMILTON-SUWANNEE-COLUMBIA-BAKER-INLAND NASSAU-INLAND DUVAL-UNION-
BRADFORD-CLAY-ST. JOHNS-GILCHRIST-ALACHUA-PUTNAM-FLAGLER-MARION-
COASTAL NASSAU-COASTAL DUVAL-COFFEE-JEFF DAVIS-BACON-APPLING-
WAYNE-ATKINSON-WARE-PIERCE-BRANTLEY-INLAND GLYNN-COASTAL GLYNN-
ECHOLS-CLINCH-CHARLTON-INLAND CAMDEN-COASTAL CAMDEN-
322 AM EDT WED JUL 22 2015

...HEAT ADVISORY THIS AFTERNOON...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST FLORIDA...SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S FOR MOST AREAS
TODAY...AND WITH HUMID CONDITIONS PERSISTING...MAXIMUM HEAT
INDEX READINGS OF 108 TO 113 WILL BE LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON. A
HEAT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR MOST AREAS.

SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE
EXPECTED. THE STRONGER STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GUSTY
WINDS...FREQUENT LIGHTNING...AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED EACH DAY. THE STRONGER STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
GUSTY WINDS...FREQUENT LIGHTNING...AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY WITH AFTERNOON
HEAT INDICES OF 105 TO 110 DEGREES. LOWER HEAT INDICES ARE EXPECTED
THIS WEEKEND.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
IN JACKSONVILLE WEBSITE ON THE INTERNET AT WEATHER.GOV/JAX.

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