Severe Thunderstorm Warning 235, NWS Jacksonville, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
342 PM EDT MON JUL 20 2015

...NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED EACH DAY THIS WEEK
WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING POSSIBLE...

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...THE SHORT RANGE PATTERN
REMAINS STATIC WITH A MEAN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ALONG THE EAST
COAST...STRONG UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND TEXAS...A SURFACE RIDGE ALONG THE
FLORIDA EAST COAST AND TROUGHING OVER THE CONTINENTAL SOUTHEAST
STATES. WITH THE MEAN FLOW OUT OF THE WEST- SOUTHWEST THE EARLY
ACTIVITY ON TUESDAY SHOULD BE FROM THE GULF...THEN MOVING ACROSS
THE NATURE COAST AND THEN TOWARD SAINT AUGUSTINE AND THE FLORIDA
EAST COAST. LATER IN THE DAY OUR BARRAGE OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND
CONVECTION SHOULD CONTINUE TO DROP OUT OF CENTRAL GEORGIA AND
TOWARD SOUTHEAST GEORGIA/INTERSTATE-10. TEMPERATURES ACROSS
INTERIOR SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND THE SUWANNEE VALLEY SHOULD CONTINUE
IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S AND EVEN FLIRTING WITH THE CENTURY MARK IN
A FEW PLACES. WITH EARLIER CONVECTION AND HIGHER HUMIDITY SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 10 TEMPS WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S WITH SCATTERED
TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS.

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...SFC TROUGH
CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTHWARD DOWN THE ATLANTIC COAST THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHEN IT CLOSES OFF OVER SC AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY BECOMES STATIONARY ACROSS NORTHERN GA/AL. UNSTABLE
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL INTERACT WITH SFC TROUGH BOTH DAYS
ALLOWING AN EARLY START TO SHOWERS AND TSTORMS EACH MORNING NEAR
THE GOMEX THEN SPREADING AREA WIDE...PEAKING IN COVERAGE DURING
THE MID AFTERNOON HOURS. AS THE INTENSITY OF STORMS INCREASES EACH
DAY AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW PWATS OF AROUND 2.00
TO 2.25 INCHES HEAVY RAINFALL COULD BE A POTENTIAL CONCERN FOR
WEDS AND THURS AFTERNOONS. ACTIVITY WILL WEAKEN AFTER SUNSET EACH
DAY AND REMAIN ISOLATED DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. HEAT INDICES
STILL A CONCERN WEDS AND THURS AFTERNOONS REACHING 102-107 DEGREES
AS DEWPOINTS DO NOT WAVER FROM THE MID 70S.

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...WET PATTERN PERSISTS INTO
THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND AS SFC TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY CONTINUE TO MOVE TOWARDS THE LOCAL AREA AND MID LEVEL
RIDGE STRENGTHENS OVER THE CENTRAL US. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AREA WIDE ON FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...BEGINNING EARLY IN THE
DAY NEAR THE GOMEX AND SUWANNEE VALLEY THEN INCREASING IN COVERAGE
THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON. LOW WILL CENTER OVER THE AREA ON
SATURDAY CONTINUING ITS SOUTHWARD PROGRESSION AS HIGH PRESSURE
BRIEFLY BUILDS IN OVER SOUTHEAST GA ON SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.
SATURDAY WILL SEE HIGHEST CHANCES FOR CONVECTION FOCUSED ACROSS NE
FL AS BOUNDARY WILL BE PRESENT NEAR THE FL/GA BORDER AND HIGHEST
LEVELS OF MOISTURE REMAIN LOCATED TO ITS SOUTH. BY SUNDAY PATTERN
BEGINS TO CHANGE AS BOUNDARY PUSHES SOUTHWARD AND DRIER AIR MASS
MOVES OVER SE GA. PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE HIGHEST IN OUR SOUTHERN
ZONES IN NORTH CENTRAL FL WITH ONLY WIDELY SCATTERED ACTIVITY
EXPECTED OVER SE GA. TEMPS WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL WITH MAXS IN
THE UPPER 80S/LOW 90S AND LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 70S THROUGHOUT THE
LONG TERM.

&&

.AVIATION...
WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP TEMPOS IN FOR ALL OF THE FLORIDA FIELDS
WITH CEILINGS ABOUT 3 KFT IN THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS EVENING.
WITH WITH MORE SUBSIDENCE IN EVIDENCE OVER GEORGIA WILL KEEP
CONVECTION AS VICINITY FOR SAINT SIMONS ISLAND BUT THAT MAY NEED
TO BE AMENDED IF CONVECTION POPS AS THE HRRR MODEL IS ADVERTISING.

TUESDAY...LOOK FOR A PATTERN VERY SIMILAR TO TODAY WITH EARLY
STORMS OVER THE FIELDS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 10 AND LATER ACTIVITY
NORTH OF THERE.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS WITH TONIGHTS NOCTURNAL SOUTHWESTERLY SURGE LOOK LIKE THEY
WILL REACH SCEC CRITERIA OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS WHICH SHOULD CONTINUE
INTO TUESDAY. OTHERWISE...LOOK FOR CONVECTION TO DROP OFF DURING
THE EARLY EVENING HOURS TONIGHT AND THEN A REPEAT OF EARLY
CONVECTION MOVING OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST TOMORROW AFTERNOON IS
EXPECTED.

RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  76  94  76  95 /  40  50  30  50
SSI  79  90  79  91 /  40  40  20  40
JAX  76  93  78  94 /  50  50  20  50
SGJ  77  90  77  91 /  50  50  20  40
GNV  74  91  76  91 /  60  60  20  60
OCF  74  90  75  90 /  60  60  20  60

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

GUILLET/SANDRIK/SHASHY

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
355 PM EDT MON JUL 20 2015

AMZ450-452-454-470-472-474-FLZ020>025-030>033-035>038-040-124-125-
GAZ132>136-149>154-162>166-212000-
COASTAL WATERS FROM ALTAMAHA SOUND TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL OUT
20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST. AUGUSTINE FL OUT
20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM ST. AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL FROM 20 TO
60 NM-
WATERS FROM FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST. AUGUSTINE FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM ST. AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
HAMILTON-SUWANNEE-COLUMBIA-BAKER-INLAND NASSAU-INLAND DUVAL-UNION-
BRADFORD-CLAY-ST. JOHNS-GILCHRIST-ALACHUA-PUTNAM-FLAGLER-MARION-
COASTAL NASSAU-COASTAL DUVAL-COFFEE-JEFF DAVIS-BACON-APPLING-
WAYNE-ATKINSON-WARE-PIERCE-BRANTLEY-INLAND GLYNN-COASTAL GLYNN-
ECHOLS-CLINCH-CHARLTON-INLAND CAMDEN-COASTAL CAMDEN-
355 PM EDT MON JUL 20 2015

...NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING...

...HEAT INDEX VALUES OF 103-107 DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST FLORIDA...
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY THIS
EVENING. THE STRONGER STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...AND GUSTY
WINDS.

HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON WITH HEAT
INDICES REACHING MOSTLY INTO THE 103 TO 107 DEGREE RANGE ACROSS
INTERIOR AREAS.

SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS TONIGHT
FOR SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS OF 15-20 KNOTS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED EACH DAY. THE STRONGER STORMS WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS...FREQUENT LIGHTNING...AND LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL.

HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK WITH AFTERNOON HEAT
INDICES OF 104 TO 108 DEGREES. SLIGHTLY LOWER HEAT INDICES ARE EXPECTED
NEXT WEEKEND.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
IN JACKSONVILLE WEBSITE ON THE INTERNET AT WEATHER.GOV/JAX.

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