Severe Thunderstorm Warning 229, NWS Jacksonville, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
244 PM EDT TUE JUL 14 2015

.NEAR TERM /THRU TONIGHT/...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED INTO EARLY EVENING ACROSS
SRN GA/NE FL. HOWEVER...MAY SEE GREATER COVERAGE WITH LARGE
CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER CTRL GA MOVING SE...LIKELY TO
CROSS OVER OUR NRN COUNTIES SE TO SSI...AND WENT WITH LIKELY
POPS IN THIS AREA THRU LATE AFTERNOON. POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY
STRONG WINDS WITH STRONGEST CELLS. ACTIVITY WILL GRADUALLY
DIMINISH DURING THE EVENING. MUGGY WITH LOW TEMPS GENERALLY
MID 70S.

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE EAST COAST UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BRIEFLY AMPLIFIES ON WEDNESDAY
AS SEVERAL SHORT WAVES DIG SOUTHEAST INTO THE BASE OF THE TROUGH.
THIS WILL DRIVE AN OLD FRONTAL SYSTEM SOUTHWARD TO THE FLORIDA-
GEORGIA STATE LINE THROUGH THURSDAY WITH ENHANCED CHANCES OF
CONVECTION. LOOK FOR SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS AND
LIKELY CONTINUING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS NEAR THE GULF AND
ATLANTIC COASTS. WITH STRONG INSTABILITY AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR
MIGHT SEE SOME SEVERE WEATHER TOMORROW. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE
IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE 104 TO 108
RANGE.

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE EAST COAST UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS FURTHER OFFSHORE WITH THE
LARGE RIDGE OVER THE TEXAS-OKLAHOMA- LOUISIANA AREA NOSING
EASTWARD INTO THE AREA. THIS WILL RESULT IN A MEAN NORTH TO
NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA CONTINUING THE HOT
TEMPERATURES/HEAT INDEX VALUES THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH
SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCED RAIN CHANCES. TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY MAY
REACH THE CENTURY MAKE ACROSS PORTIONS OF INTERIOR SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA. EARLY NEXT WEEK A COOL FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MAKE A RUN
AT THE AREA WITH INCREASING POPS AND BRING TEMPS DOWN A BIT...
BUT STILL SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR OUTSIDE OF SCATTERED CONVECTION. POTENTIAL FOR
STRONG GUSTY WINDS WITH TSRA.

&&

.MARINE...LOW PRESSURE WELL NORTH AND RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO
THE SOUTH WILL MAINTAIN SW 15 KTS NEARSHORE...15-20KTS OFFSHORE
THRU THURSDAY...WILL MAINTAIN EXERCISE CAUTION OFFSHORE COMPONENT.
WEAKER PRESSURE GRADIENT...THUS LIGHTER WINDS...FRI THRU SUN WITH
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE MOVING OVER THE WATERS.

RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK THRU WED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  75  95  76  95 /  40  40  30  50
SSI  77  94  78  91 /  40  40  40  40
JAX  76  94  77  91 /  30  40  30  50
SGJ  76  93  78  91 /  30  40  30  50
GNV  75  92  76  91 /  30  40  30  60
OCF  75  91  76  91 /  30  50  30  60

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

WOLF/SANDRIK/WALKER

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
920 AM EDT TUE JUL 14 2015

AMZ450-452-454-470-472-474-FLZ020>025-030>033-035>038-040-124-125-
GAZ132>136-149>154-162>166-151330-
COASTAL WATERS FROM ALTAMAHA SOUND TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL OUT
20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST. AUGUSTINE FL OUT
20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM ST. AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL FROM 20 TO
60 NM-
WATERS FROM FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST. AUGUSTINE FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM ST. AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
HAMILTON-SUWANNEE-COLUMBIA-BAKER-INLAND NASSAU-INLAND DUVAL-UNION-
BRADFORD-CLAY-ST. JOHNS-GILCHRIST-ALACHUA-PUTNAM-FLAGLER-MARION-
COASTAL NASSAU-COASTAL DUVAL-COFFEE-JEFF DAVIS-BACON-APPLING-
WAYNE-ATKINSON-WARE-PIERCE-BRANTLEY-INLAND GLYNN-COASTAL GLYNN-
ECHOLS-CLINCH-CHARLTON-INLAND CAMDEN-COASTAL CAMDEN-
920 AM EDT TUE JUL 14 2015

...ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...

...HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THIS WEEK WITH AFTERNOON
HEAT INDICES AROUND 104 TO 108 DEGREES...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST FLORIDA...
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

SCATTERED STORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE
EARLY AFTERNOON WILL SEE THE BEST CHANCE OF STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTH FLORIDA MOVING FROM THE WEST-SOUTHWEST TO
THE EAST-NORTHEAST AT 15 TO 20 MPH.

LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING...A BAND OF STORMS IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND NORTH FLORIDA FROM THE
NORTHWEST AND INTERSECT WITH THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE FRONT.
A BETTER CHANCE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXIST WITH THIS BAND
AND THE SEA BREEZE FRONT INTERACTION ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA AND FLORIDA EAST COAST COUNTIES/SAINT JOHNS RIVER AREA.
THE MEAN MOVEMENT ON THESE STORMS SHOULD BE FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST AROUND 15 MPH.

PULSE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY WITH DAMAGING
WINDS...HAIL...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND LOCALIZED FLOODING FROM
HEAVY RAINFALL.

HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S OVER INLAND AREAS AND LOWER 90S
ALONG THE COAST WILL SUPPORT HEAT INDICES AROUND 104 TO 108 DEGREES
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS STORMS ARE EXPECTED EACH DAY. STORM
MOVEMENT WILL MAINLY BE TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST. STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON...WITH DAMAGING WINDS UP
TO 60 MPH...SMALL HAIL...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND MINOR FLOODING
FROM LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL.

HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY WITH
HEAT INDICES AROUND 105 DEGREES DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO SELF-ACTIVATE IF WARNINGS ARE ISSUED IN
THEIR AREA.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
IN JACKSONVILLE WEBSITE ON THE INTERNET AT WEATHER.GOV/JAX.

SANDRIK

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
239 PM EDT TUE JUL 14 2015

GAZ133-135-141930-
JEFF DAVIS GA-APPLING GA-
239 PM EDT TUE JUL 14 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN JEFF DAVIS AND
NORTHERN APPLING COUNTIES UNTIL 330 PM EDT...

AT 239 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR
PLANT HATCH...MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH.

EXCESSIVE CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS OF 45 TO 55 MPH
CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG WITH POSSIBLE MINOR DAMAGE.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
BAXLEY...HAZLEHURST...GRAHAM...PLANT HATCH...GRAYS LANDING AND PINE
GROVE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REPORT DAMAGE TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY OR YOUR COUNTY
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT.

LAT...LON 3197 8243 3195 8241 3196 8238 3194 8238
      3194 8231 3195 8231 3192 8225 3190 8216
      3176 8217 3181 8273 3188 8273 3192 8268
      3193 8259 3196 8256 3195 8249 3195 8248
      3197 8248
TIME...MOT...LOC 1839Z 273DEG 14KT 3191 8242

PETERSON

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
335 PM EDT TUE JUL 14 2015

GAZ150-162-163-142015-
CLINCH GA-ECHOLS GA-WARE GA-
335 PM EDT TUE JUL 14 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EAST CENTRAL ECHOLS...SOUTH
CENTRAL WARE AND SOUTHEASTERN CLINCH COUNTIES UNTIL 415 PM EDT...

AT 335 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR
FARGO...MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.

HAIL UP TO NICKEL SIZE IN DIAMETER...EXCESSIVE CLOUD-TO-GROUND
LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS OF 45 TO 55 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG WITH
POSSIBLE MINOR DAMAGE.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
FARGO AND NEEDMORE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REPORT DAMAGE TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY OR YOUR COUNTY
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT.

LAT...LON 3084 8272 3088 8242 3080 8242 3079 8235
      3063 8237 3068 8274
TIME...MOT...LOC 1935Z 268DEG 20KT 3076 8259

PETERSON