Severe Thunderstorm Warning 224, NWS Jacksonville, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
906 AM EDT MON JUL 13 2015

.UPDATE...
ITS DEJU VU ALL OVER AGAIN. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS
POSITIONED ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD WITH A SYNOPTIC
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW PATTER AROUND IT AND AN UPPER RIDGE CENTERED
OVER TEXAS. SURFACE TROUGHING ACROSS THE SPINE OF THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA SHOULD ENSURE SCATTERED CONVECTION BREAKS OUT OVER
GEORGIA AND ROLLS DOWN THE FLORIDA PENINSULA FROM THE NORTH-
NORTHWEST. WITH SEA BREEZE FRONT CONVERGENCE OCCURRING FROM
GAINESVILLE SOUTH IN THE LATER PORTION OF THE DAY EXPECT
CONVECTION WILL BE ENHANCED THERE. SOME STRONG TO ISOLATED SEVERE
STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS THE AIR MASS IS FAIRLY UNSTABLE.

HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL BE IN THE 100-105 DEGREE RANGE IN GENERAL
AND THIS WOULD BE A GOOD OPPORTUNITY TO REMIND PEOPLE TO REMAIN
HYDRATED TODAY...ESPECIALLY AT AREA BEACHES WHERE THE SEA BREEZE
WILL BE AS BIT LATER IN GETTING GOING TODAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
GROUND FOG AT GAINESVILLE HAS BURNED OFF FOR THE DAY AND LOOKING
AT VISUAL FLIGHT RULE CONDITIONS THIS MORNING AND EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. THE NORTHERLY STEERING FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR
INLAND TAF SITES FOR CONVECTION AS THE STORMS FROM INTERIOR
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA PROPAGATE SOUTH ALONG THE EAST COAST SEABREEZE
FRONT THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
NO CHANGES TO PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

TROF TO THE NORTH OF THE WATERS AND HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WELL TO
THE SOUTH WILL CONTINUE A MAINLY SOUTHWEST OFFSHORE FLOW THIS WEEK
WITH LOCAL SEA BREEZES ALONG THE COAST DURING THE AFTERNOON.
SPEEDS WILL INCREASE TO 15-20 KNOTS AT TIMES...MAINLY DURING THE
NOCTURNAL EVENING SURGES...AND MAY APPROACH 20 KNOTS AND POTENTIAL
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDS DURING THE TUE-THU TIME FRAME WHEN THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT IS THE TIGHTEST...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE
EXERCISE CAUTION CONDS WITH THIS PACKAGE WITH SEAS BUILD TO 3-5 FT
AT TIMES. MAIN THREAT THIS WEEK WILL BE MORE OFFSHORE MOVING
STORMS FROM TUE ONWARD AS STORM MOTION SLOWLY BECOMES MORE WEST TO
EAST AND GUSTY WINDS/LIGHTNING/HEAVY RAIN FROM STORMS WILL BECOME
THE PRIMARY THREAT TO THE MARINERS.

RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK IN THE OFFSHORE FLOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  99  75  97  75 /  40  40  40  30
SSI  91  78  90  78 /  30  20  40  30
JAX  96  76  95  76 /  40  40  40  20
SGJ  93  77  90  77 /  40  30  40  20
GNV  95  75  91  75 /  50  40  50  20
OCF  94  74  92  75 /  60  40  50  20

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

SANDRIK/COMBS

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
112 PM EDT MON JUL 13 2015

GAZ151-131730-
PIERCE GA-
112 PM EDT MON JUL 13 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WESTERN PIERCE COUNTY UNTIL 130
PM EDT...

AT 112 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR
JAMESTOWN...OR 8 MILES NORTHWEST OF BLACKSHEAR...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT
10 MPH.

EXCESSIVE CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS OF 45 TO 55 MPH
CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG WITH POSSIBLE MINOR DAMAGE.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
BLACKSHEAR...JAMESTOWN...SUNNYSIDE AND DEENWOOD.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REPORT DAMAGE TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY OR YOUR COUNTY
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT.

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND
TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS...FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

LAT...LON 3132 8211 3122 8227 3122 8231 3129 8239
      3136 8239 3136 8240 3138 8241 3138 8242
      3139 8242 3139 8241 3140 8240 3143 8238
      3143 8235 3144 8234 3144 8233 3145 8233
      3147 8230
TIME...MOT...LOC 1712Z 324DEG 10KT 3137 8235

SANDRIK

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
132 PM EDT MON JUL 13 2015

FLZ040-131800-
MARION FL-
132 PM EDT MON JUL 13 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WESTERN MARION COUNTY UNTIL 200
PM EDT...

AT 132 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER
RAINBOW LAKES ESTATES...MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.

EXCESSIVE CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING CAN BE EXPECTED. POSTPONE OUTDOOR
ACTIVITIES PROMPTLY. GO QUICKLY INSIDE A COMPLETELY ENCLOSED
BUILDING. UNPLUG ELECTRONIC DEVICES AND APPLIANCES AS THEY ARE
SUSCEPTIBLE TO POWER SURGES AND MAY BE DAMAGED BY NEARBY LIGHTNING
STRIKES.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
RAINBOW LAKES ESTATES...DUNNELLON...FLEMINGTON...ROMEO AND STOKES
FERRY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REPORT DAMAGE TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY OR YOUR COUNTY
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 15 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND
TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS...FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

&&

LAT...LON 2897 8232 2902 8240 2902 8242 2905 8247
      2904 8250 2904 8253 2921 8254 2922 8240
      2948 8241 2949 8229 2896 8231
TIME...MOT...LOC 1732Z 290DEG 19KT 2915 8245

SANDRIK

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