Severe Thunderstorm Warning 20, NWS Jacksonville, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
251 PM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

.NEAR TERM...THROUGH TONIGHT...
BUILDING UPPER RIDGE OVER FORECAST AREA THROUGH TONIGHT.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED T-STORMS POSSIBLE ALONG EXISTING
BOUNDARIES...MAINLY ALONG WARM FRONT MOVING NORTHWARD OVER SRN GA
AND FL SEA BREEZES. HRRR SUGGESTS THIS WITH PEAK COVERAGE TOWARD
00Z WITH DECREASE IN COVERAGE THEREAFTER. VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS DECENT LOW-LEVEL SW FLOW LIKELY TO PIN EAST COAST
SEA BREEZE TO COAST...THUS HRRR PRIMARILY FOCUSING ANY DEVELOPMENT
ON EASTWARD MOVING WEST-COAST SEA BREEZE. WITH LITTLE DYNAMIC
SUPPORT...WILL KEEP POP VALUES BELOW 50 THROUGH TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...
UPPER RIDGING MOVES OFFSHORE WHILE STRONG UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
PLAINS SHIFTS SLOWLY EASTWARD. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TRACKS FROM
MS NORTHEAST TO IN DURING DAY SUNDAY...WITH OUR FORECAST IN WARM
SECTOR. GREATER LOW-LEVEL SW FLOW WILL PIN EAST COAST SEA BREEZE
TO COAST WHILE ADVANCING WEST COAST SEA BREEZE EASTWARD. THIS
COMBINED WITH ACTIVITY COMING FROM NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO
SUPPORTS HIGH POPS...PERHAPS HIGHEST WRN/NRN AREAS...GENERALLY
50-70 PCT.

ACTIVITY DIMINISHES SUNDAY NIGHT AS MID-LEVEL DRY SLOT SPREADS OVER
FORECAST AREA. FOR MONDAY...SYSTEM CONTINUES TRACKING NORTH AND
EAST...COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST. MODEL
GUIDANCE INDICATES DRIER CONDITIONS ALOFT AND BETTER DYNAMICS
PASSING WELL NORTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA...THUS CONSIDERABLY LESS
PRECIP COVERAGE MON COMPARED TO SUN. WILL MAINTAIN 30 POP MON.
DESPITE LESSER COVERAGE...MODEL GUIDNCE SUGGESTS A FEW STRONG OR
SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN AN ENVIRONMENT WITH 2000 J/KG
CAPE AND 150-200 0-3KM SR-HELICITY. SPC HAS A MARGINAL/SLIGHT RISK
AREA OVER MOST OF OUR AREA MON.

WARM SUN AND MON WITH HIGHS 80 TO 85 NORTH OF I-10 CORRIDOR...MID
80S I-10 SOUTHWARD.

FRONT AND ASSOCIATED PRECIP SHIFT OFFSHORE MON NIGHT.  FRONT
WASHES OUT OVER THE SOUTHERN PART OF FORECAST AREA WHILE WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE GULF COAST STATES.

LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
DRIER CONDITIONS WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING NORTH OF THE AREA TUE.
SLIGHTLY COOLER HIGH TEMPS IN UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. WILL
CONTINUE TO CONFINE LOW POPS TO OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES.

LITTLE CHANGE WED-FRI...WITH ISOLATED SEA BREEZE SHOWERS POSSIBLE
FL PENINSULA. BETTER CHANCE OF RAIN MAY COME NEXT SAT...BASED ON
GFS AND ECM...AND WILL SHOW POPS INCREASING THEN. HIGH TEMPS
GRADUALLY INCREASING TO MID 80S BY END OF WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED NEXT 24 HRS...EXCEPT
LOCALLY LOWERER IN ISOLATED TSRA AND AREAS WHERE LATE NIGHT
PATCHY FOG OCCURS.

&&

.MARINE...SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS 10-15KTS AND 2-4FT SEAS EXPECTED
THRU MONDAY AHEAD OF NEXT COLD FRONT. AFTER FRONT PASSES...WINDS
WILL BECOME NORTH AND THEN NORTHEAST WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
JUST NORTH OF THE AREA. THE HIGH IS EXPECTED TO BE WEAK...RESULTING
IN FAIRLY WEAK WINDS AND LOW SEAS TUE/WED. BEFORE THE FRONT PASSES
MON NIGHT...WINDS COULD APPROACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS
ACROSS THE OFFSHORE COMPONENT.

.RIP CURRENTS...MODERATE RISK THROUGH SUNDAY DUE TO A LINGERING SWELL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  67  82  67  83 /  40  80  20  30
SSI  68  80  69  82 /  30  60  40  30
JAX  69  85  69  85 /  30  60  30  30
SGJ  69  82  69  83 /  30  50  30  30
GNV  68  85  68  85 /  20  60  20  30
OCF  68  85  69  85 /  20  50  20  40

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

WOLF/SANDRIK/GUILLET

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
604 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

AMZ450-452-454-470-472-474-FLZ020>025-030>033-035>038-040-124-125-
GAZ132>136-149>154-162>166-191015-
COASTAL WATERS FROM ALTAMAHA SOUND TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL OUT
20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST. AUGUSTINE FL OUT
20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM ST. AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL FROM 20 TO
60 NM-
WATERS FROM FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST. AUGUSTINE FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM ST. AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
HAMILTON-SUWANNEE-COLUMBIA-BAKER-INLAND NASSAU-INLAND DUVAL-UNION-
BRADFORD-CLAY-ST. JOHNS-GILCHRIST-ALACHUA-PUTNAM-FLAGLER-MARION-
COASTAL NASSAU-COASTAL DUVAL-COFFEE-JEFF DAVIS-BACON-APPLING-
WAYNE-ATKINSON-WARE-PIERCE-BRANTLEY-INLAND GLYNN-COASTAL GLYNN-
ECHOLS-CLINCH-CHARLTON-INLAND CAMDEN-COASTAL CAMDEN-
604 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

...MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS...
...ISOLATED STORMS THIS AFTERNOON...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST FLORIDA...
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THE EVENING. SOME STORMS MAY BE STRONG AND PRODUCE FREQUENT
LIGHTNING...GUSTY WINDS...AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN.

THERE IS A CONTINUED MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT THE
AREA BEACHES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS EXPECTED SUNDAY.

AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS TO THE AREA THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE BEST RAIN
CHANCES WILL BE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ISOLATED STRONG
STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WHICH WILL PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN
IN ADDITION TO GUSTY WINDS AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT BE NEEDED AT THIS TIME.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
IN JACKSONVILLE WEBSITE ON THE INTERNET AT WEATHER.GOV/JAX.

PP

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
616 PM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

GAZ152>154-164>166-182300-
INLAND GLYNN GA-COASTAL CAMDEN GA-BRANTLEY GA-COASTAL GLYNN GA-
INLAND CAMDEN GA-CHARLTON GA-
616 PM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN BRANTLEY...
SOUTHWESTERN GLYNN...NORTHWESTERN CAMDEN AND NORTHEASTERN CHARLTON
COUNTIES UNTIL 700 PM EDT...

AT 616 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 7
MILES SOUTHEAST OF HICKOX...OR 9 MILES SOUTHEAST OF NAHUNTA...MOVING
EAST AT 20 MPH.

GUSTY WINDS OF 35 TO 45 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG WITH POSSIBLE
MINOR WIND DAMAGE.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
WAVERLY AND TARBORO.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REPORT DAMAGE TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY OR YOUR COUNTY
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 15 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

&&

LAT...LON 3098 8159 3100 8161 3099 8163 3099 8161
      3098 8161 3097 8160 3095 8159 3105 8198
      3122 8191 3116 8158
TIME...MOT...LOC 2216Z 290DEG 16KT 3110 8188

NELSON

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
628 PM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

FLZ124-125-182300-
COASTAL NASSAU FL-COASTAL DUVAL FL-
628 PM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN DUVAL AND EAST
CENTRAL NASSAU COUNTIES UNTIL 700 PM EDT...

AT 627 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR
FERNANDINA BEACH...MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.

GUSTY WINDS OF 35 TO 50 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG WITH POSSIBLE
MINOR WIND DAMAGE.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
JACKSONVILLE...FERNANDINA BEACH...YULEE...NEPTUNE BEACH...SAN
PABLO...LITTLE TALBOT ISLAND AND FORT CAROLINE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REPORT DAMAGE TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY OR YOUR COUNTY
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 15 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

&&

LAT...LON 3026 8142 3029 8142 3026 8146 3064 8158
      3064 8144 3052 8144 3059 8146 3057 8148
      3054 8147 3055 8148 3057 8151 3048 8141
      3042 8141 3040 8140 3038 8148 3040 8139
      3027 8138 3026 8138
TIME...MOT...LOC 2227Z 250DEG 20KT 3061 8149

NELSON

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