Severe Thunderstorm Warning 198, NWS Jacksonville, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
255 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...

THIS AFTERNOON...SCATTERED STORMS RAPIDLY MOVED IN FROM THE GULF COAST
SEABREEZE. OUTFLOWS FROM THOSE STORMS WERE ABLE TO FIRE STORMS ON THE
WESTERN BANKS OF THE ST JOHNS RIVER AND SCT STORMS WERE ALSO DEVELOPING
ALONG THE EAST COAST SEABREEZE. MOST STRONG STORMS HAVE BEEN PRODUCING
WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH WITH SMALL HAIL...ALTHOUGH A COUPLE OF STORMS
MAY BECOME SEVERE. SO FAR NO CONVECTION IN SE GA...THIS IS EXPECTED TO
CHANGE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AS A SHORT WAVE APPROACHES THERE.

TONIGHT...SCATTERED STORMS...MAINLY IN SE GA AND GENERALLY BETWEEN THE
COAST AND U.S. HWY 301...WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY FADE OUT THIS EVE
DUE TO LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. SCATTERED STORMS MAY GET GOING LATER
TONIGHT (TOWARDS DAWN) TOWARDS THE GULF COAST AS A MOIST AND UNSTABLE
SOUTHERLY FLOW INTERACTS WITH SHORT WAVE ENERGY.

SUNDAY...A 500 MB LOW WILL TRACK NE FROM CNTL TENN TOWARDS OHIO WHILE
A BERMUDA RIDGE REMAINS INTACT ACROSS CNTL AND SOUTH FL. THIS LEAVES THE
FORECAST AREA UNDER A MOIST AND UNSTABLE W TO SW FLOW AS THE TROUGH DIGS
ALONG THE GULF COAST. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS/STORMS EXPECTED TO FIRST
DEVELOP NEAR THE GULF COAST AND SPREAD INLAND DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON
WITH STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE TOWARDS THE EAST COAST WHERE SEABREEZES AND
MOST OF THE OUTFLOWS MERGE. HAVE GONE WITH LIKELY POPS MOST AREAS...STRONGER
STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF WET MICROBURSTS IN ADDITION TO FREQUENT
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING.

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...

SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL LINGER INTO SUNDAY NIGHT ACROSS SE GA
AND COASTAL NE FL AS A SHORTWAVE SWINGS AROUND MID LEVEL TROUGH
AFFECTING THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES. SHOWERS AND TSTORMS SHOULD
BEGIN TO DIMINISH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING OVER LAND
AREAS BEFORE GETTING AN EARLY START ONCE AGAIN LATE MONDAY MORNING
WITH MID LEVEL TROUGH AND SHORTWAVE PUSHING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST
OVER THE VIRGINIAS BY MONDAY NIGHT. HIGHEST COVERAGE OF STORMS
WILL BE DURING THE MID/LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS NE FL AS THE GULF
COAST AND ATLANTIC SEA BREEZES CONVERGE NEAR THE INTERSTATE 95
CORRIDOR WITH BRIEF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE. WITH UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT LINGERING ACROSS THE REGION...STORMS SHOULD ONCE
AGAIN CONTINUE PAST SUNSET INTO MONDAY NIGHT. DEEP LAYER RIDGING
WILL CONTROL THE WEATHER PATTERN FOR TUESDAY WITH WEAKER FLOW
ALLOWING SEA BREEZE CONVERGENCE CLOSER TO HWY 301 DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND QUICKLY DIMINISHING AFTER SUNSET. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN AROUND SEASONAL NORMALS NEAR 90 ACROSS INLAND AREAS AND
UPPER 80S ALONG THE COAST WITH MILD LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 70S.

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...

MID LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTHWARD TUESDAY NIGHT AS A
SERIES OF SHORTWAVES BEGINS TO PROGRESS OVER A QUASI-STATIONARY
BOUNDARY STRETCHED FROM THE NORTH CENTRAL US UP TO NEW ENGLAND
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. FOR THE SOUTHEAST US...MID LEVEL
RIDGE SETTLES BACK OVER THE REGION AND SFC HIGH REMAINS CENTERED
OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC STRETCHING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST US AND
GULF COAST STATES. CONTINUED SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW IS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHEAST ALONG THE
ATLANTIC COAST EACH AFTERNOON AS SEA BREEZE PUSHES INLAND. TYPICAL
SUMMERTIME PATTERN IS TO BE EXPECTED INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS
SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY COMMENCES EACH
AFTERNOON CONTINUING THROUGH SUNSET BEFORE DECREASING IN INTENSITY
AND COVERAGE. MAX TEMPS WILL BE IN THE LOW/MID 90S INLAND AND
UPPER 80S ALONG THE COAST EACH AFTERNOON.

&&

.AVIATION...WILL HAVE TEMPO GROUPS FOR TS WITH GUSTY WINDS AT
GNV TIL 19Z AND AT JAX...CRG...AND VQQ TIL 20Z. OTHERWISE WILL
HAVE VCTS TIL 00Z. AS STORMS FADE THIS EVE...WILL HAVE VCSH
BETWEEN 00Z-02Z.

&&

.MARINE...NO HEADLINES. WINDS MAINLY SOUTH 10 TO 15 KNOTS...EXCEPT
SLIGHTLY STRONGER AT NIGHT AND SOUTHEAST ALONG THE COAST IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 TO 4 FEET. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS MAINLY
IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVE.

RIP CURRENTS: MODERATE RISK ALONG THE NE FL COAST THIS AFTERNOON
DUE TO AN EASTERLY GROUNDSWELL SEABREEZE. A MODERATE RISK MAY BE
NEEDED FOR THE NE FL COAST SUNDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  73  92  71  90 /  40  60  30  40
SSI  77  87  76  87 /  40  50  40  40
JAX  73  91  72  90 /  30  60  50  50
SGJ  75  88  75  88 /  30  50  40  50
GNV  71  92  72  91 /  30  60  20  60
OCF  72  92  72  90 /  20  60  20  70

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

GUILLET/PETERSON/WALKER

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
456 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

AMZ450-452-454-470-472-474-FLZ020>025-030>033-035>038-040-124-125-
GAZ132>136-149>154-162>166-050930-
COASTAL WATERS FROM ALTAMAHA SOUND TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL OUT
20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST. AUGUSTINE FL OUT
20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM ST. AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL FROM 20 TO
60 NM-
WATERS FROM FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST. AUGUSTINE FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM ST. AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
HAMILTON-SUWANNEE-COLUMBIA-BAKER-INLAND NASSAU-INLAND DUVAL-UNION-
BRADFORD-CLAY-ST. JOHNS-GILCHRIST-ALACHUA-PUTNAM-FLAGLER-MARION-
COASTAL NASSAU-COASTAL DUVAL-COFFEE-JEFF DAVIS-BACON-APPLING-
WAYNE-ATKINSON-WARE-PIERCE-BRANTLEY-INLAND GLYNN-COASTAL GLYNN-
ECHOLS-CLINCH-CHARLTON-INLAND CAMDEN-COASTAL CAMDEN-
456 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

...SCATTERED STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...
...MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS NORTHEAST FLORIDA BEACHES...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST FLORIDA...
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER COVERAGE OF STORMS POSSIBLE ACROSS MARION...
PUTNAM...CLAY AND BRADFORD COUNTIES. LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS OF 40 TO
60 MPH AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING ARE THE MAIN HAZARDS WITH STRONGER
STORMS. STORMS WILL DECREASE IN COVERAGE BY LATE EVENING. STORM
CELL MOTION WILL BE NORTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS FOR NORTHEAST FLORIDA
BEACHES TODAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST FOR SUNDAY THROUGH
MID WEEK MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. THE BEST CHANCES
WILL BE MAINLY OVER INLAND AREAS. A FEW STRONG TO BRIEFLY SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY AND MONDAY AND CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
STRONG GUSTY WINDS UP TO 60 MPH...FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES...AND
HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
IN JACKSONVILLE WEBSITE ON THE INTERNET AT WEATHER.GOV/JAX.

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