Severe Thunderstorm Warning 182, NWS Jacksonville, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
131 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SHORT TERM.../TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY/...
OLD FRONTAL SYSTEM IN THE AREA WILL MOVE NORTH WITH THE CONVECTION
ALONG IT STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE THIS AFTERNOON. A MESOSCALE
CONVECTIVE SYSTEM OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL ALABAMA WILL DROP EAST-
SOUTHEAST INTO THE NWS JACKSONVILLE AREA OF RESPONSIBILITY THROUGH
THE EARLY EVENING WITH A POSSIBLE SECOND ROUND OF SEVERE WEATHER
AS IT APPROACHES THIS EVENING. THE BOW ECHO LOOKS LIKE IT MIGHT
WEAKEN AS IT APPROACHES THE EAST COAST AND IT DOES WEAKEN OVER
THE COASTAL WATERS. SO LOOKS LIKE THE BEST CHANCE OF A SECOND
ROUND OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE OVER THE SUWANNEE VALLEY AND
INTERIOR SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. CONVECTION SHOULD TOTALLY END BY
MIDNIGHT WITH CLEARING SKIES IN MOST AREAS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE
IN THE MID 70S AND THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE AROUND 60
PERCENT EARLY IN THE EVENING.

THE BROAD EAST COAST UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE WITH
A GENERALLY WEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST UPPER LEVEL FLOW. THINGS SHOULD
BE A LITTLE MORE SUBSIDENT TOMORROW WITH POPS GENERALLY IN THE
20-30 PERCENT RANGE OVER GEORGIA AND THE 30-40 PERCENT RANGE OF
FLORIDA. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S WITH
LESS CLOUD COVERAGE AND LATER ONSET OF CONVECTION.

/WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COVERING THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES WILL REMAIN FAIRLY STATIONARY WITH A FEW IMPULSES
ROUNDING IT'S BASE IMPACTING THE LOCAL REGION. THE AXIS
OF THE WESTERN EXTENSION OF THE BERMUDA RIDGE WILL STAY
OVER SOUTH CENTRAL FLORIDA KEEPING LOW LEVEL WINDS OUT
OF THE WEST TO SOUTHWEST. WITH AMPLE MOISTURE IN PLACE
ALONG WITH INCREASED INSTABILITY, WE SEE A FAIRLY ACTIVE
PERIOD FOR CONVECTION.  HENCE...THERE WILL BE A CONTINUED
PATTERN OF SCATTERED LATE NIGHT AND MORNING STORMS NEAR
GULF COAST SPREADING INLAND TOWARDS EAST COAST DURING
THE AFTERNOON/EVE. TEMPS WILL AVERAGE SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL DUE TO CLOUD COVER AND TSTMS/RAINFALL.

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
BERMUDA RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD INTO THE FL PENINSULA
AS THE TROUGH OVER THE AREA DEAMPLIFIES. WILL TRANSISTION
TO A LIGHTER S AND SW FLOW WHICH RESULTS IN MORE DIURNAL
TYPE SCATTERED CONVECTION EACH DAY WITH BEST COVERAGE
ACROSS THE INLAND AREAS WHERE SEABREEZES AND OTHER
OUTFLOWS MERGE. RISING HEIGHTS RESULTS IN TEMPS
WARMING TO ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE MID 90S.

&&

.AVIATION...
WILL MAINTAIN TEMPO GROUPS FOR ALL OF THE LOCAL FIELDS THROUGH
ABOUT 02 UTC. CEILINGS WILL CONVECTION ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE
3.0-5.0 KFT RANGE AND LOOK FOR GUSTY WINDS THIS EVENING IF THE BOW
ECHO MOVES OVER THE LOCAL FIELDS.

&&

.MARINE...
THE LOCAL AREA REMAINS SQUEEZED BETWEEN THE BERMUDA-AZORES RIDGE
TO OUR SOUTH AND GENERAL LOW PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH. WE SHOULD
MAINTAIN A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW PATTERN THROUGH THE LATER PORTION OF
THE WEEK AND MAYBE A BIT MORE SOUTHERLY OVER THE WEEKEND AND THE
RIDGE NOSES OFFSHORE.

RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  72  93  73  93 /  60  20  20  50
SSI  75  92  77  89 /  60  30  30  30
JAX  74  93  73  93 /  60  30  20  50
SGJ  74  91  76  91 /  60  30  20  40
GNV  72  91  73  93 /  50  30  20  50
OCF  73  92  73  92 /  40  30  20  60

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

CORDERO/SANDRIK/WALSH

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
209 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

AMZ450-452-454-470-472-474-FLZ020>025-030>033-035>038-040-124-125-
GAZ132>136-149>154-162>166-011815-
COASTAL WATERS FROM ALTAMAHA SOUND TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL OUT
20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST. AUGUSTINE FL OUT
20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM ST. AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL FROM 20 TO
60 NM-
WATERS FROM FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST. AUGUSTINE FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM ST. AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
HAMILTON-SUWANNEE-COLUMBIA-BAKER-INLAND NASSAU-INLAND DUVAL-UNION-
BRADFORD-CLAY-ST. JOHNS-GILCHRIST-ALACHUA-PUTNAM-FLAGLER-MARION-
COASTAL NASSAU-COASTAL DUVAL-COFFEE-JEFF DAVIS-BACON-APPLING-
WAYNE-ATKINSON-WARE-PIERCE-BRANTLEY-INLAND GLYNN-COASTAL GLYNN-
ECHOLS-CLINCH-CHARLTON-INLAND CAMDEN-COASTAL CAMDEN-
209 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST FLORIDA...
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 375 IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS
EVENING GENERALLY WEST OF U.S. HIGHWAY 301...

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW OF
THE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS...FREQUENT
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING A BOWING CLUSTER OF STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE FROM SOUTHERN ALABAMA
EAST-SOUTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHERN GEORGIA AND INTO THE SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA AND NORTH FLORIDA. THE MOST SIGNIFICANT RISK IS FOR STRONG
DAMAGING WINDS AND WILL MAINLY BE NORTH OF FLORIDA STATE ROAD 20
AND WEST OF U.S. HIGHWAY 301. THE WEAKENING LINE SHOULD MOVE OVER
THE COASTAL WATERS EARLY TONIGHT AND MARINE INTERESTS OFFSHORE
BETWEEN SAINT AUGUSTINE INLET AND THE ALTAMAHA SOUND SHOULD HAVE
THEIR VESSELS PREPARED FOR POSSIBLE HEAVY WEATHER.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH
DAY. A FEW OF THE STORMS COULD PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS...FREQUENT
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS.
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS REQUESTED IN AND NEAR THE SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
IN JACKSONVILLE WEBSITE ON THE INTERNET AT WEATHER.GOV/JAX.

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