Severe Thunderstorm Warning 145, NWS Jacksonville, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
134 PM EDT MON JUN 22 2015

.NEAR TERM /THRU TUESDAY/... UPPER RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE SOUTHEAST
IN THE NEAR TERM...WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE CENTERED JUST S
OF FORECAST AREA. HOT TEMPS WITH DWPTS UPR 60S/LWR 70S SUPPORTING
CONSIDERABLE INSTABILITY...WITH CAPE VALUES UP TO 3000 J/KG. STILL
ANTICIPATE SCATTERED SHOWERS/T-STORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG WEST COAST
SEA BREEZE...AND ALONG EAST COAST SEA BREEZE AS IT PRESSES INLAND
TOWARD I-95 WITH DECENT MOISTURE CONVERGENCE...W TO SW WINDS MEETING
SE WINDS. EFFECT OF LOW-LEVEL DRY AIR PER 12Z JAX SOUNDING SHIFTING
EAST OF AREA WITH CUMULUS AND HIGHER SFC DWPTS OVER WRN PARTS OF
NASSAU/DUVAL CO'S. TOWARD 00Z...ANTICIPATE SOME DEVELOPMENT OVER
WEAK SURFACE TROF OVER SCTRL GA THAT COULD AFFECT OUR NWRN
COUNTIES...WHILE SEA BREEZES MERGE BETWEEN HWY 301 AND I-95 WITH
POTENTIAL ENHANCEMENT OF T-STORM COVERAGE BY 00Z. ATMOSPHERIC
CONDITIONS ARE QUITE FAVORABLE FOR STRONG WET MICROBURSTS FROM
TALLER CORES...AS INDICATED BY HIGH FORECAST D-CAPE AND DIFFERENTIAL
THETA-E VALUES...WHICH COULD LEAD TO SURFACE OUTFLOW WINDS UP TO 60
MPH.

IN THE 00Z-03Z PERIOD...WILL HAVE LIKELY POPS HWY 301 WEST AND NW TO
POTENTIAL ACTIVITY AHEAD OF SCTRL GA SURFACE TROF. AFTER 03Z...SHOW
GRADUAL DECREASE IN COVERAGE...WITH VERY LITTLE LEFT AFTER 09Z. LOW
TEMPS WILL BE IN THE MID 70S INLAND...UPR 70S COAST.

FOR TUESDAY...SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO COVERAGE...BUT WILL CONTINUE
CHANCE POPS WITH SEA BREEZES AND SCTRL GA SURFACE TROF. ANOTHER HOT
DAY WITH TEMPS IN MID/UPR 90S INLAND...LOW 90S COAST...AFTERNOON
HEAT INDEX VALUES SIMILAR TO TODAY WITH 103-107 INLAND...AROUND 100
COAST.

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY/...

A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ALOFT WITH A MOIST SW FLOW WILL
CONTINUE TO PRODUCE DAILY SCATTERED CONVECTION. SEABREEZES WILL
MERGE LATE AFTERNOON NEAR THE I-95 CORRIDOR. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH POPS NEAR NORMAL.

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

PATTERN CHANGES AS UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTH WEAKENS NEXT WEEKEND
AS AN AMPLIFYING TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE EASTERN U.S. A MOIST SW
FLOW WILL PERSIST AS A SURFACE TROUGH REMAINS OVER CENTRAL GA. UPPER
IMPULSES WILL HELP ENHANCE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY POSSIBLY EXTENDING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
GIVEN UPPER SUPPORT. TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS
WITH POPS AT OR ABOVE AVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED...EXCEPT LOWER CONDITIONS
VICINITY OF TSRA. CONTINUING VCTS IN EASTERN TAF SITES...BUT
INCLUDED A TEMPO GROUP 22Z-02Z KVQQ AND KGNV WHERE THERE MAY BE
GREATER COVERAGE OF TSRA DURING THAT PERIOD. ALSO INDICATED
POTENTIAL FOR STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS WITH STRONGER TSRA. ENVIRONMENT
REMAINS VERY FAVORABLE FOR STRONG WET MICROBURSTS FROM TALLER
STORMS. ACTIVITY SHOULD DECREASE IN COVERAGE AFTER 02Z AND BE MAINLY
W AND NW OF TAF SITES.

&&

.MARINE...SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL GENERALLY PREVAIL IN THE
NIGHTTIME AND MORNING PERIODS WITH SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS EACH
AFTERNOON WITH THE SEABREEZE. NOCTURNAL SOUTHERLY SURGES WILL BRING
POTENTIAL FOR CAUTION LEVEL WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS IN THE EVENING
PERIODS.

RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  74  96  74  97 /  60  40  20  40
SSI  79  91  78  90 /  40  30  30  30
JAX  75  96  76  95 /  30  30  30  30
SGJ  77  92  75  89 /  30  20  20  30
GNV  73  96  74  95 /  60  40  40  40
OCF  74  95  75  95 /  60  40  40  40

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.

&&

WOLF/PETERSON/WALSH

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
518 AM EDT MON JUN 22 2015

AMZ450-452-454-470-472-474-FLZ020>025-030>033-035>038-040-124-125-
GAZ132>136-149>154-162>166-230930-
COASTAL WATERS FROM ALTAMAHA SOUND TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL OUT
20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST. AUGUSTINE FL OUT
20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM ST. AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL FROM 20 TO
60 NM-
WATERS FROM FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST. AUGUSTINE FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM ST. AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
HAMILTON-SUWANNEE-COLUMBIA-BAKER-INLAND NASSAU-INLAND DUVAL-UNION-
BRADFORD-CLAY-ST. JOHNS-GILCHRIST-ALACHUA-PUTNAM-FLAGLER-MARION-
COASTAL NASSAU-COASTAL DUVAL-COFFEE-JEFF DAVIS-BACON-APPLING-
WAYNE-ATKINSON-WARE-PIERCE-BRANTLEY-INLAND GLYNN-COASTAL GLYNN-
ECHOLS-CLINCH-CHARLTON-INLAND CAMDEN-COASTAL CAMDEN-
518 AM EDT MON JUN 22 2015

...ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THIS EVENING...

...WIDESPREAD HEAT INDICES AROUND 105 DEGREES AGAIN TODAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST FLORIDA...
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

HOT TEMPERATURES INTO THE 95 TO 100 DEGREE RANGE THIS AFTERNOON
WILL PRODUCE WIDESPREAD HEAT INDICES AROUND 105 DEGREES AREA-WIDE.
USE EXTRA CAUTION WHEN OUTDOORS IN THE HEAT.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME SCATTERED TO POSSIBLY NUMEROUS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH THE HIGHEST CONCENTRATION OF
STORMS EXPECTED TO OCCUR GENERALLY BETWEEN HIGHWAY 301 AND THE
I-95 CORRIDOR. A FEW SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH GUSTY
WINDS AROUND 60 MPH ALONG WITH SMALL HAIL AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING.
SLOWER MOVING STORMS WILL PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

HEAT INDEX VALUES NEAR 105 DEGREES EACH AFTERNOON.

SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
EACH DAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO SELF-ACTIVATE IF WARNINGS ARE ISSUED
FOR THEIR LOCATIONS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
IN JACKSONVILLE WEBSITE ON THE INTERNET AT WEATHER.GOV/JAX.

JDS

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>