Severe Thunderstorm Warning 143, NWS Jacksonville, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
340 PM EDT SUN JUN 21 2015

...INCREASED COVERAGE OF AFTERNOON/EVENING THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED
THIS WEEK...

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS ARE BEGINNING TO
DEVELOP JUST TO THE WEST OF THE ATLANTIC SEABREEZE...AND IN
CLOSE PROXIMITY TO A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WHICH ID MOVING
SOUTH TOWARD THE LOCAL AREA. A GRADUAL INCREASE IN STORM COVERAGE
WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE AFTN ALONG THE GULF AND ATLANTIC
SEABREEZES. THE TROUGH TO THE NORTH WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTH
INTO THE AREA THIS EVENING...RESULTING IN ACTIVITY LINGERING
A BIT LONGER THAN THE LAST FEW NIGHTS. AN ISOLATED STRONG STORM
IS POSSIBLE...WITH GUSTY WINDS THE MAIN THREAT. CONVECTION WILL
DIMINISH AFTER MIDNIGHT...WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER/MID 70S INLAND
TO THE UPPER 70S COAST.

MONDAY...THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL INTERACT WITH THE GULF AND
ATLANTIC SEABREEZES WHICH WILL MERGE CLOSE TO THE I-95 CORRIDOR
GIVEN W/SW FLOW TO GENERATE ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED AFTN
SHWRS/TSTMS. WITH SURFACE RIDGING PERSISTING TO THE SOUTH
EXPECT ANOTHER HOT DAY...WITH HIGHS OF 95-100 INLAND AND
AROUND 90 IMMEDIATE COAST. WITH AFTN DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S
TO LOWER 70S...MAXIMUM HEAT INDICES OF 103-107 CAN BE EXPECTED.

.SHORT TERM (MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)...
A STAGNANT WEATHER PATTERN WILL PREVAIL AS THE ATLANTIC RIDGE AXIS
REMAINS POSITIONED ACROSS CENTRAL FL...WITH A STATIONARY SURFACE
TROUGH  POSITIONED ACROSS SOUTH GA. SCATTERED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED
TO INITIATE ALONG THE GULF COAST SEA BREEZE AND OVER INLAND
SOUTHEAST GA ALONG THE SURFACE TROUGH TOWARDS THE NOON HOUR ON TUES
AND WED...WITH ACTIVITY DEVELOPING ALONG THE PINNED ATLANTIC COAST
SEA BREEZE BY THE MID-AFTERNOON HOURS. ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY MERGE
ALONG I-95...WHERE STORMS MAY PULSE UP TO STRONG TO SEVERE LEVELS BY
THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS...WITH WET MICROBURSTS
AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING BEING THE PRIMARY THREATS. CONVECTION MAY
LINGER THROUGH THE MID-EVENING HOURS AS MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES AND
PLENTY OF MOISTURE SUPPORT ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT PAST SUNSET. HIGHS
WILL CONTINUE TO RUN ABOVE LATE JUNE CLIMO...WITH MID/UPPER 90S
INLAND AND LOWER 90S AT THE COAST. MAX HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL
APPROACH 105 DEGREES BEFORE CONVECTION DEVELOPS. LOWS WILL RANGE
FROM THE MID 70S INLAND TO NEAR 80 AT THE BEACHES.

.LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...
RIDGING ALOFT WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH HEIGHTS THEN
SLOWLY FALLING FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND AS TROUGHING DEVELOPS
OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE  NATION. LOW-LEVEL SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL
CONTINUE AS SURFACE TROUGHING PERSISTS ACROSS SOUTHERN GA...WITH OUR
LOCAL PRESSURE GRADIENT GRADUALLY TIGHTENING NEXT WEEKEND AS A
SHORTWAVE DIGS SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. EXPECT A
SIMILAR THUNDERSTORM PATTERN TO THE SHORT TERM PERIOD...WITH
ACTIVITY INITIATING ALONG THE GULF COAST SEABREEZE AND OVER INLAND
SOUTHEAST GA TOWARDS NOON...WITH ACTIVITY MERGING NEAR I-95 BY LATE
AFTERNOON EACH DAY. AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS FRI-NEXT
WEEKEND...ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY DEVELOP EARLIER IN THE MORNING OVER
THE NORTHEAST GULF AND WILL PROPAGATE INLAND AT A FASTER RATE. HIGH-
END SCATTERED COVERAGE IS EXPECTED EACH DAY...POSSIBLY NUMEROUS
LATER THIS WEEK AND NEXT WEEKEND AS FORCING ALOFT STRENGTHENS. HIGHS
WILL REMAIN IN THE MID/UPPER 90S INLAND ON WED...AND THEN WILL COOL
SLIGHTLY BACK TO THE LOW/MID 90S BY FRIDAY AND NEXT WEEKEND AS
CONVECTION INITIATES EARLIER IN THE DAY AND HEIGHTS ALOFT SLOWLY
FALL. PERSISTENT SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL KEEP HUMIDITY LEVELS
HIGH...KEEPING LOWS IN THE MID/UPPER 70S REGION-WIDE.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR WILL PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WITH LOW/MID END SCATTERED
TSTM COVERAGE THIS AFTN...WILL USE VCTS INTO EARLY THIS EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...
OTHER THAN FOR AFTERNOON SEABREEZES...SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS
10-15 KNOTS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK. CAUTION LEVEL
WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE OFFSHORE WITH NOCTURNAL SURGES.

RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  74  97  75  94 /  30  40  20  40
SSI  78  91  78  92 /  30  30  10  30
JAX  75  95  75  94 /  40  40  30  30
SGJ  77  89  77  91 /  30  30  10  20
GNV  74  95  73  96 /  40  40  40  40
OCF  75  95  74  96 /  30  50  40  60

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

ALLEN/NELSON/WALKER

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
301 AM EDT SUN JUN 21 2015

AMZ450-452-454-470-472-474-FLZ020>025-030>033-035>038-040-124-125-
GAZ132>136-149>154-162>166-221000-
COASTAL WATERS FROM ALTAMAHA SOUND TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL OUT
20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST. AUGUSTINE FL OUT
20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM ST. AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL FROM 20 TO
60 NM-
WATERS FROM FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST. AUGUSTINE FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM ST. AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
HAMILTON-SUWANNEE-COLUMBIA-BAKER-INLAND NASSAU-INLAND DUVAL-UNION-
BRADFORD-CLAY-ST. JOHNS-GILCHRIST-ALACHUA-PUTNAM-FLAGLER-MARION-
COASTAL NASSAU-COASTAL DUVAL-COFFEE-JEFF DAVIS-BACON-APPLING-
WAYNE-ATKINSON-WARE-PIERCE-BRANTLEY-INLAND GLYNN-COASTAL GLYNN-
ECHOLS-CLINCH-CHARLTON-INLAND CAMDEN-COASTAL CAMDEN-
301 AM EDT SUN JUN 21 2015

...WIDESPREAD HEAT INDICES AROUND 105 DEGREES EACH AFTERNOON...

...ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST FLORIDA...SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

HOT TEMPERATURES INTO THE 95 TO 100 DEGREE RANGE THIS AFTERNOON
WILL PRODUCE WIDESPREAD HEAT INDICES AROUND 105 DEGREES AREA-WIDE.
USE EXTRA CAUTION WHEN OUTDOORS IN THE HEAT.

SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE
BEST CHANCES NEAR THE SEA BREEZE COLLISION ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR
LATE IN THE DAY. STORM MOTION WILL GENERALLY BE TOWARDS THE EAST
AROUND 10 MPH OR LESS...AND A FEW STORMS MAY BECOME STRONG TO
SEVERE WITH GUSTY WINDS UP TO 50 TO 60 MPH ALONG WITH SMALL HAIL
AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING. SLOWER MOVING STORMS MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

HEAT INDEX VALUES NEAR 105 DEGREES EACH AFTERNOON.

SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
EACH AFTERNOON.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO SELF-ACTIVATE IF WARNINGS ARE ISSUED
FOR THEIR LOCATIONS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
IN JACKSONVILLE WEBSITE ON THE INTERNET AT WEATHER.GOV/JAX.

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