Severe Thunderstorm Warning 134, NWS Jacksonville, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
218 PM EDT FRI JUN 19 2015

...THE HEAT CONTINUES WITH SCATTERED AFTERNOON STORMS...

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
INITIAL SHOWERS/TSTMS ARE DEVELOPING ALONG THE GULF SEABREEZE IN
GILCHRIST/MARION COUNTIES...WITH THE FIRST COUPLE OF SHOWERS ALONG
THE ATLANTIC SEABREEZE SOUTH OF JAX. ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE IN THE
NEXT HOUR OR SO...MAXIMIZING LATE THIS AFTN AS THE TWO BOUNDARIES
COLLIDE BETWEEN THE I-95 AND I-75 CORRIDORS. WILL USE MID/HIGH END
SCATTERED POPS. WITH RATHER STEEP LAPSE RATES...A FEW OF THE
STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS. THE HEAT REMAINS
THE MAIN STORY...AS TEMPERATURES RISE INTO THE MID/UPPER 90S WITH
HEAT INDICES JUST SHY OF THE 108 HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA. RESIDUAL
SHWRS/TSTMS EARLY THIS EVENING WILL DISSIPATE SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET
WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES TNGT WILL
RANGE FROM THE LOWER/MID 70S INLAND TO THE UPPER 70S COAST.

SATURDAY...THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM BILL WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION...FLATTENING THE
DEEP LAYER RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CONUS. MOISTURE WILL
CONTINUE TO INCREASE...AND WITH THE INTERACTION OF THE ATLANTIC
AND GULF SEABREEZES...EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED TSTMS
SATURDAY AFTN. THINK THE GREATEST COVERAGE WILL RESIDE ACROSS
NORTHEAST FLORIDA BETWEEN I-75 AND I-95...WITH HIGH END SCATTERED
COVERAGE. ANOTHER HOT DAY IN STORE...WITH HIGHS ONCE AGAIN IN THE
MID TO UPPER 90S INLAND AND NEAR 90 COAST. HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL
APPROACH ADVISORY CRITERIA ACROSS SOME AREAS...BUT COVERAGE AND
DURATION NOT SUFFICIENT FOR A HEAT ADVISORY. ANOTHER WARM AND
HUMID NIGHT EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. THROUGH THE LONG-TERM
PERIOD. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE IS CENTERED SOUTH OF OUR
FORECAST AREA...WITH S TO SW FLOW OVER SRN GA/NRN FL...AND A WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH OVER SRN GA. FAIRLY MOIST UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL REMAIN
IN PLACE...SUPPORTING SCATTERED AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS/T-STORMS
EACH DAY. WILL MAINTAIN CURRENT FORECAST OF CHANCE POPS EACH DAY.

CONTINUED ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS DAILY HIGH TEMPS MID-UPR 90S WELL
INLAND...AROUND 90 COAST...LOW TEMPS LOWER-MID 70S WELL
INLAND...UPR 70S COAST. HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL BE 100-105 EACH
AFTERNOON.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR WILL PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS, WILL USE VCTS THIS AFTN IN
SCATTERED TSTMS FOR ALL SITES EXCEPT SSI.

&&

.MARINE...
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL PREVAIL INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. WIND SPEEDS AND SEAS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN UNDER CAUTION
CRITERIA...WITH SOME POSSIBILITY AT CAUTION LEVEL WINDS FOR THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  74  97  73  98 /  20  20  10  20
SSI  77  91  79  91 /  10  20  10  10
JAX  74  96  74  97 /  30  30  20  20
SGJ  75  89  75  91 /  20  30  30  20
GNV  73  96  72  97 /  30  30  10  20
OCF  74  95  73  96 /  30  30  20  30

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

ALLEN/WOLF

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
257 AM EDT FRI JUN 19 2015

AMZ450-452-454-470-472-474-FLZ020>025-030>033-035>038-040-124-125-
GAZ132>136-149>154-162>166-201000-
COASTAL WATERS FROM ALTAMAHA SOUND TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL OUT
20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST. AUGUSTINE FL OUT
20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM ST. AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL FROM 20 TO
60 NM-
WATERS FROM FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST. AUGUSTINE FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM ST. AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
HAMILTON-SUWANNEE-COLUMBIA-BAKER-INLAND NASSAU-INLAND DUVAL-UNION-
BRADFORD-CLAY-ST. JOHNS-GILCHRIST-ALACHUA-PUTNAM-FLAGLER-MARION-
COASTAL NASSAU-COASTAL DUVAL-COFFEE-JEFF DAVIS-BACON-APPLING-
WAYNE-ATKINSON-WARE-PIERCE-BRANTLEY-INLAND GLYNN-COASTAL GLYNN-
ECHOLS-CLINCH-CHARLTON-INLAND CAMDEN-COASTAL CAMDEN-
257 AM EDT FRI JUN 19 2015

...WIDESPREAD HEAT INDICES AROUND 105 DEGREES EACH AFTERNOON...

...ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST FLORIDA...
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

HOT TEMPERATURES INTO THE 95 TO 100 DEGREE RANGE THIS AFTERNOON
WILL PRODUCE WIDESPREAD HEAT INDICES AROUND 105 DEGREES AREA-WIDE.
USE EXTRA CAUTION WHEN OUTDOORS IN THE HEAT.

SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY
ACROSS NORTHEAST FLORIDA WITH THE BEST CHANCES ALONG THE ST JOHNS
RIVER BASIN FROM JACKSONVILLE SOUTHWARD...ISOLATED STORMS ARE
EXPECTED ELSEWHERE. STORM MOTION WILL GENERALLY BE TOWARDS THE
NORTH AND NORTHEAST AT 10 MPH OR LESS...AND A FEW STORMS MAY
BECOME STRONG WITH GUSTY WINDS UP TO 50 MPH ALONG WITH HAIL AND
FREQUENT LIGHTNING. SLOWER MOVING STORMS MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

HEAT INDEX VALUES NEAR 105 DEGREES EACH AFTERNOON.

SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
EACH AFTERNOON.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO SELF-ACTIVATE IF WARNINGS ARE ISSUED
FOR THEIR LOCATIONS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
IN JACKSONVILLE WEBSITE ON THE INTERNET AT WEATHER.GOV/JAX.

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
1123 AM EDT FRI JUN 19 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0509 PM     TSTM WND DMG     7 SSW SANTOS            29.02N 82.14W
06/18/2015                   MARION             FL   911 CALL CENTER

            TREES DOWN EAST OF THE DON GARLITS MUSEUM. TIME ESTIMATED
            BY RADAR.

&&

WALSH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
1129 AM EDT FRI JUN 19 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0500 PM     TSTM WND DMG     9 SW SANTOS             29.00N 82.19W
06/18/2015                   MARION             FL   911 CALL CENTER

            MULTIPLE TREES DOWN IN MARION OAKS. TIME ESTIMATED BY
            RADAR.

&&

WALSH

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
352 PM EDT FRI JUN 19 2015

FLZ033-192015-
ST. JOHNS FL-
352 PM EDT FRI JUN 19 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN ST. JOHNS COUNTY
UNTIL 415 PM EDT...

AT 352 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR
SOUTH PONTE VEDRA...OR 7 MILES NORTHWEST OF SAINT AUGUSTINE. THIS
STORM WAS NEARLY STATIONARY.

GUSTY WINDS OF 35 TO 50 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG WITH POSSIBLE
MINOR WIND DAMAGE.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
GUANA RIVER STATE PARK.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REPORT DAMAGE TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY OR YOUR COUNTY
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT.

LAT...LON 2997 8133 2996 8133 2993 8142 3004 8146
      3008 8135 3000 8133 3002 8135 3005 8137
      3004 8137 2999 8134 2999 8133 2998 8133
      2996 8132
TIME...MOT...LOC 1952Z 254DEG 2KT 2998 8139

ZIBURA