Severe Thunderstorm Warning 12, NWS Jacksonville, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
740 PM EST WED FEB 25 2015

.UPDATE...

CURRENT FORECAST TIMING IS ON TRACK. EXPECT INITIAL LINE OF
CONVECTION AHEAD OF THE FRONT TO REACH FAR WESTERN COUNTIES
AROUND 03Z...THEN MOVE QUICKLY TO THE SOUTHEAST. THE MAIN LINE
SHOULD CLEAR TO THE SOUTHEAST AROUND 10Z.

THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR ANY STRONG STORMS WILL BE NEAR OR JUST
AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ELEVATED WINDS ABOVE
THE SURFACE TO MIX DOWN. FAR INLAND COUNTIES WILL HAVE THE BEST
POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS AS THE LINE SHOULD WEAKEN
DURING THE OVERNIGHT DUE TO DIURNAL EFFECTS. WITH SHEER NEAR THE
SURFACE LOW COULD NOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED TORNADO NEAR THE
INTERSTATE 75 CORRIDOR.

TEMPERATURES IN THE WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL REMAIN
STEADY OR SLOWLY RISE OVERNIGHT...THEN FALL AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...

WARM FRONT JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA WILL MOVE NORTH OF THE TAF SITES
DURING THE EVENING. WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM SE TO S AND SW AND BECOME GUSTY AT
TIMES AS LOW PRESSURE INTENSIFIES OVER THE FL PANHANDLE.  IFR CIGS WIDESPREAD
NORTH OF WARM FRONT. ONCE IN WARM SECTOR...ANTICIPATING A RISE TO MVFR.

LINE OF SHOWERS WITH A FEW EMBEDDED T-STORMS WILL MOVE OVER TAF SITES DURING
06Z-10Z PERIOD TONIGHT. THEN COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH WITH MODEL GUIDANCE
SUGGESTING POTENTIAL FOR CIGS TO DROP BACK TO IFR. FOR NOW...HAVE BKN010 TOWARD
DAWN IN TAFS. SOME IMPROVEMENT IN CIGS ANTICIPATED DURING THE DAY
THURSDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  41  54  38  57 / 100  10   0   0
SSI  45  54  41  54 / 100  20   0   0
JAX  52  60  42  58 / 100  20   0   0
SGJ  55  61  45  59 /  80  40   0  10
GNV  57  66  43  63 / 100  20   0  10
OCF  61  65  44  65 / 100  30  10  20

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THURSDAY FOR WATERS FROM
     ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
     WATERS FROM FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST. AUGUSTINE FL FROM 20 TO
     60 NM-WATERS FROM ST. AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL FROM 20
     TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST THURSDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS
     FROM ALTAMAHA SOUND TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL OUT 20 NM-
     COASTAL WATERS FROM FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST. AUGUSTINE FL
     OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM ST. AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER
     BEACH FL OUT 20 NM.

&&

STRUBLE/WOLF

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
745 PM EST WED FEB 25 2015

AMZ450-452-454-470-472-474-FLZ020>025-030>033-035>038-040-124-125-
GAZ132>136-149>154-162>166-270045-
COASTAL WATERS FROM ALTAMAHA SOUND TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL OUT
20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST. AUGUSTINE FL OUT
20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM ST. AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL FROM 20 TO
60 NM-
WATERS FROM FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST. AUGUSTINE FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM ST. AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
HAMILTON-SUWANNEE-COLUMBIA-BAKER-INLAND NASSAU-INLAND DUVAL-UNION-
BRADFORD-CLAY-ST. JOHNS-GILCHRIST-ALACHUA-PUTNAM-FLAGLER-MARION-
COASTAL NASSAU-COASTAL DUVAL-COFFEE-JEFF DAVIS-BACON-APPLING-
WAYNE-ATKINSON-WARE-PIERCE-BRANTLEY-INLAND GLYNN-COASTAL GLYNN-
ECHOLS-CLINCH-CHARLTON-INLAND CAMDEN-COASTAL CAMDEN-
745 PM EST WED FEB 25 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES IN EFFECT FOR TONIGHT...

...STRONG STORMS EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM
POSSIBLE...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST FLORIDA...
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT...

SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT ACROSS THE
ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT.

LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW WILL SWEEP EAST DURING THE OVERNIGHT.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ALONG AND AHEAD OF THIS
FRONT. SOME STRONG STORMS WILL DEVELOP IN RESPONSE TO THE FRONT. A
FEW SEVERE STORMS WITH AN ISOLATED TORNADO WILL BE
POSSIBLE...MAINLY WELL INLAND.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY ACROSS THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
IN JACKSONVILLE WEBSITE ON THE INTERNET AT WEATHER.GOV/JAX.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
1127 PM EST WED FEB 25 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1112 PM     NON-TSTM WND GST ESE LAKE CITY           30.19N 82.64W
02/25/2015  E50 MPH          COLUMBIA           FL   TRAINED SPOTTER

            TRAINED SPOTTER ESTIMATES WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WELL
            AHEAD OF THE SQUALL LINE.

&&

NELSON

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
107 AM EST THU FEB 26 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1227 AM     NON-TSTM WND GST 5 SE ALACHUA            29.73N 82.42W
02/26/2015  M41.00 MPH       ALACHUA            FL   MESONET

            A NON CONVECTIVE WIND GUST OF 41 MPH WAS MEASURED AT A
            CWOP SITE NEAR ALACHUA.

1235 AM     NON-TSTM WND GST 1 SE LAKE CITY          30.19N 82.64W
02/26/2015  M43.00 MPH       COLUMBIA           FL   AWOS

            A NON CONVECTIVE WIND GUST OF 43 MPH WAS MEASURED AT THE
            LAKE CITY GATEWAY AIRPORT.

&&

SHULER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
122 AM EST THU FEB 26 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0105 AM     TSTM WND DMG     3 E ICHETUCKNEE SPRINGS 29.96N 82.73W
02/26/2015                   COLUMBIA           FL   911 CALL CENTER

            COLUMBIA COUNTY 911/DISPATCH REPORTS SEVERAL TREES DOWNED
            THROUGHOUT THE COUNTY...INCLUDING ONE IMPACTING THE
            INTERSECTION OF ELIM CHURCH ROAD AND SOUTHWEST
            CENTERVILLE AVENUE THAT CAUSED A TRAFFIC ACCIDENT.

&&

NELSON

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
123 AM EST THU FEB 26 2015

FLZ024-124-GAZ154-164>166-260715-
COASTAL NASSAU FL-INLAND NASSAU FL-COASTAL CAMDEN GA-
COASTAL GLYNN GA-INLAND CAMDEN GA-CHARLTON GA-
123 AM EST THU FEB 26 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN NASSAU...
SOUTHEASTERN GLYNN...SOUTHERN CAMDEN AND SOUTHEASTERN CHARLTON
COUNTIES UNTIL 215 AM EST...

AT 122 AM EST...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER
KINGS FERRY...OR 7 MILES NORTHEAST OF HILLIARD...MOVING NORTHEAST AT
60 MPH.

GUSTY WINDS OF 45 TO 55 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG WITH POSSIBLE MINOR
WIND DAMAGE.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
ST. MARYS...KINGSLAND...HILLIARD...KINGS BAY BASE...JEKYLL ISLAND...
KINGS FERRY...CUMBERLAND ISLAND AND HARRIETTS BLUFF.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REPORT DAMAGE TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY OR YOUR COUNTY
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT.

LAT...LON 3077 8146 3077 8147 3084 8147 3084 8148
      3085 8148 3086 8153 3085 8155 3083 8149
      3082 8149 3083 8150 3076 8149 3053 8205
      3054 8205 3080 8192 3105 8146 3112 8139
      3102 8140 3114 8137 3113 8135
TIME...MOT...LOC 0622Z 243DEG 53KT 3075 8182

PETERSON