Severe Thunderstorm Warning 103, NWS Jacksonville, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
232 PM EDT FRI JUN 12 2015

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS ARE DEVELOPING EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON...MAINLY ACROSS INLAND AREAS IN A LITTLE MORE MOIST
MOISTURE PROFILE AND AS THE ATLANTIC SEABREEZE MOVES INLAND.
COVERAGE WILL ONLY INCREASE SLIGHTLY AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES
AND WILL CAP POPS AT LOW END SCATTERED. ANY ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH
THIS EVENING WITH MOSTLY CLEAR/PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES OVERNIGHT.
LOW TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 70S INLAND TO THE
MID/UPPER 70S COAST.

SATURDAY...EVEN LESS PRECIP COVERAGE IS EXPECTED...AS RIDGING
CONTINUES TO BUILD ACROSS THE REGION. WILL KEEP ANY PRECIP
MENTION LIMITED TO INLAND LOCATIONS...AND CAP POPS AT ISOLATED.
WITH THE BUILDING RIDGE...TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO WARM
WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S IMMEDIATE COAST...WITH MID TO
SOME UPPER 90S INLAND. THE INCREASED TEMPERATURES...ALONG WITH
SEASONAL HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL RESULT IN HEAT INDEX READINGS
TOPPING OUT IN THE 99-103 RANGE FOR MANY INLAND LOCATIONS.

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE BOTH SURFACE AND ALOFT RIDGING OVER THE AREA WILL
LEAD TO LARGELY SUPPRESSED CONVECTIVE CONDITIONS AND OUR FIRST
REAL TASTE OF HOT WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON
SUNDAY WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S ACROSS ALL OF THE INLAND
AREAS WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE 100-105 DEGREE RANGE. THE
MAJOR EXCEPTION WILL BE THE IMMEDIATE BEACHES WHERE THE PROXIMITY
TO THE WATER AND THE SEA BREEZE WILL KEEP US IN THE UPPER 80S TO
LOWER 90S. CONVECTIVE COVERAGE LOOKS TO BE IN THE 15-25 PERCENT
CHANCE AND MAINLY INLAND WHERE THE GULF AND ATLANTIC SEA BREEZE
FRONT CONVERGENCE IS MORE LIKELY.

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE RIDGING REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH THE ENTIRE WEEK WITH THE LOW
LEVEL FLOW GRADUALLY BECOMING MORE SOUTHWESTERLY TOWARD THE END OF
THE WEEK AND THE SCORCHING HIGH TEMPERATURES REACHING THE EAST
COAST BEACHES. OVERALL LOOK FOR A VERY GRADUAL INCREASE IN
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY DURING THE WEEK WITH
ABOUT 40 PERCENT COVERAGE BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. WITH A DOMINANT
SOUTHWEST FLOW THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN FOR THE EAST COAST COUNTIES
WILL BE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS THE GULF SEA BREEZE FRONT MOVES
EASTWARD. TEMPS WILL RISE INTO THE MID/UPPER 90S WITH MUGGY LOWS
IN THE MID/UPPER 70S WITH LOWER 70S DEW POINTS OVERNIGHT. HEAT
INDEX VALUES WILL RISE INTO THE 100-105 DEG RANGE EACH AFTERNOON.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR WILL PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WITH LIMITED TSTM COVERAGE
THIS AFTN...WILL USE VCTS FOR GNV/VQQ FOR MOST OF THE AFTN...AND
KJAX TIL 20Z FOR SOME LOCALIZED ACTIVITY.

&&

.MARINE...
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK...WITH PERIODS OF ONSHORE FLOW EACH AFTERNOON INTO
EVENING. WIND SPEEDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN UNDER CAUTION CRITERIA.

RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK TODAY. MODERATE RISK POSSIBLE THIS WEEKEND
WITH PERIODS OF ONSHORE FLOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  71  96  72  96 /  20  20  10  20
SSI  76  89  76  86 /  10  10  10  10
JAX  71  94  72  94 /  20  10  10  20
SGJ  74  87  74  87 /  10  10  10  10
GNV  71  94  70  95 /  20  10  10  20
OCF  72  95  71  94 /  10  20  10  20

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

ALLEN/SANDRIK

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
439 AM EDT FRI JUN 12 2015

AMZ450-452-454-470-472-474-FLZ020>025-030>033-035>038-040-124-125-
GAZ132>136-149>154-162>166-130845-
COASTAL WATERS FROM ALTAMAHA SOUND TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL OUT
20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST. AUGUSTINE FL OUT
20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM ST. AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL FROM 20 TO
60 NM-
WATERS FROM FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST. AUGUSTINE FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM ST. AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
HAMILTON-SUWANNEE-COLUMBIA-BAKER-INLAND NASSAU-INLAND DUVAL-UNION-
BRADFORD-CLAY-ST. JOHNS-GILCHRIST-ALACHUA-PUTNAM-FLAGLER-MARION-
COASTAL NASSAU-COASTAL DUVAL-COFFEE-JEFF DAVIS-BACON-APPLING-
WAYNE-ATKINSON-WARE-PIERCE-BRANTLEY-INLAND GLYNN-COASTAL GLYNN-
ECHOLS-CLINCH-CHARLTON-INLAND CAMDEN-COASTAL CAMDEN-
439 AM EDT FRI JUN 12 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST FLORIDA...
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...
WIDELY SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED. A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE...WITH GUSTY
WINDS OF 40-50 MPH AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES BEING THE
PRIMARY THREATS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY FOR LOCATIONS WEST OF
U.S. HIGHWAY 301...WITH ONLY ISOLATED ACTIVITY EXPECTED ON SUNDAY.
SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
EACH DAY NEXT WEEK...MAINLY FOR INLAND LOCATIONS.

AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO THE MID AND UPPER
90S AT INLAND LOCATIONS. COMBINED WITH SEASONABLY HIGH HUMIDITY
VALUES...HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL APPROACH 105 DEGREES INLAND EACH
AFTERNOON.

A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS POSSIBLE AT AREA BEACHES THIS
WEEKEND.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
IN JACKSONVILLE WEBSITE ON THE INTERNET AT WEATHER.GOV/JAX.

NELSON

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
300 PM EDT FRI JUN 12 2015

FLZ124-GAZ166-121930-
COASTAL NASSAU FL-COASTAL CAMDEN GA-
300 PM EDT FRI JUN 12 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN NASSAU AND
SOUTHEASTERN CAMDEN COUNTIES UNTIL 330 PM EDT...

AT 300 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR
YULEE...OR NEAR ST. MARYS...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 5 MPH.

GUSTY WINDS OF 45 TO 55 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG WITH POSSIBLE MINOR
WIND DAMAGE.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
ST. MARYS...KINGSLAND...FERNANDINA BEACH...KINGS BAY BASE...YULEE AND
CUMBERLAND ISLAND.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REPORT DAMAGE TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY OR YOUR COUNTY
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT.

LAT...LON 3078 8146 3072 8145 3073 8148 3069 8146
      3070 8146 3070 8143 3065 8143 3059 8158
      3071 8167 3074 8165 3074 8169 3075 8166
      3084 8152 3083 8151 3084 8151 3084 8150
      3090 8141
TIME...MOT...LOC 1900Z 226DEG 6KT 3069 8164

SHULER

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
329 PM EDT FRI JUN 12 2015

GAZ149-163-122015-
CLINCH GA-ATKINSON GA-
329 PM EDT FRI JUN 12 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR ATKINSON AND NORTHWESTERN CLINCH
COUNTIES UNTIL 415 PM EDT...

AT 329 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR
DU PONT...OR 9 MILES WEST OF HOMERVILLE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

GUSTY WINDS OF 45 TO 55 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG WITH POSSIBLE MINOR
WIND DAMAGE.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
HOMERVILLE...PEARSON...WILLACOOCHEE...DU PONT...COGDELL AND AXSON.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REPORT DAMAGE TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY OR YOUR COUNTY
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT.

LAT...LON 3136 8265 3128 8265 3128 8268 3127 8270
      3123 8270 3122 8269 3115 8266 3094 8286
      3100 8297 3118 8297 3119 8305 3123 8305
      3128 8303 3131 8306 3134 8307 3136 8310
      3139 8312 3139 8304
TIME...MOT...LOC 1929Z 212DEG 23KT 3106 8291

SHULER

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
333 PM EDT FRI JUN 12 2015

FLZ021-022-122015-
COLUMBIA FL-SUWANNEE FL-
333 PM EDT FRI JUN 12 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN COLUMBIA AND
SOUTHEASTERN SUWANNEE COUNTIES UNTIL 415 PM EDT...

AT 333 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR
ICHETUCKNEE SPRING...MOVING NORTH AT 10 MPH.

GUSTY WINDS OF 45 TO 55 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG WITH POSSIBLE MINOR
WIND DAMAGE.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
LAKE CITY...ICHETUCKNEE SPRING...COLUMBIA...FIVE POINTS...WATERTOWN
AND HILDRETH.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REPORT DAMAGE TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY OR YOUR COUNTY
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT.

LAT...LON 3022 8292 3025 8261 2995 8262 2993 8283
TIME...MOT...LOC 1933Z 173DEG 10KT 3002 8274

SHULER

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
338 PM EDT FRI JUN 12 2015

FLZ040-122030-
MARION FL-
338 PM EDT FRI JUN 12 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EASTERN MARION COUNTY UNTIL 430
PM EDT...

AT 338 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR
PITTMAN...OR 7 MILES NORTHEAST OF EMERALDA...MOVING NORTHWEST AT 30
MPH.

GUSTY WINDS OF 45 TO 55 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG WITH POSSIBLE MINOR
WIND DAMAGE.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
JUNIPER SPRINGS...LYNNE...MOSS BLUFF AND BURBANK.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REPORT DAMAGE TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY OR YOUR COUNTY
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT.

LAT...LON 2927 8210 2942 8184 2907 8164 2905 8164
      2905 8166 2896 8166 2896 8182
TIME...MOT...LOC 1938Z 147DEG 25KT 2900 8172

SHULER