Gale Warning 1, NWS Jacksonville, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
943 PM EST TUE JAN 6 2015

...CHILLY NIGHT BEFORE THE POLAR PLUNGE TOMORROW NIGHT...

.UPDATE...A WEAKENING SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDED ACROSS CENTRAL
FL THIS EVENING WHILE A DRY COLD FRONT WAS PRESSING SOUTHWARD
ACROSS N GA. THIS COLD FRONT WAS BEING DRIVEN SOUTHWARD BY A VERY
STRONG COLD DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE RECENTLY ANALYZED AROUND 1053 MB
DIVING SOUTHWARD FROM ALBERTA. ALOFT NEAR ZONAL FLOW PREVAILED
WITH SCATTERED-BROKEN BANDS OF HIGH CIRRUS SWEEPING OVER THE LOCAL
AREA.

FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR TONIGHT WAS TO ASSESS FROST POTENTIAL WITH
MIN TEMPS EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE MID 30S INLAND. AS ADVERTISED
BY PREVIOUS SHIFT...DRY AIR ADVECTION ENSUED THIS EVENING OVER
INLAND SE GA UNDER ELEVATED NW WINDS...THUS TURBULENCE AND LACK OF
SATURATION SHOULD PREVENT FROST ACROSS OUR GA ZONES. FARTHER SOUTH
OVER NE FL...RHS WILL RECOVER BETTER HOWEVER PASSING CIRRUS WILL
PREVENT EXTENDED RADIATIONAL COOLING. A FEW PATCHES OF FROST ARE
CERTAINLY POSSIBLE EARLY WED MORNING INLAND...BUT CONFIDENCE STILL NOT
HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. MINS TONIGHT
WILL RANGE FROM THE MID/UPPER 30S INLAND TO LOW/MID 40S COAST/ST
JOHNS RIVER BASIN.

WED & WED NIGHT...THE SURFACE HIGH WILL PLUNGE OVER THE CENTRAL FL
FROM CANADA WED WITH A DEEP NLY TRAJECTORY OVER THE DEEP SOUTH AND
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT. STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL DEVELOP
WED AFTN PLUMMETING TEMPS BELOW FREEZING INLAND WED NIGHT.
ELEVATED WINDS WILL CREATE WIND CHILLS IN THE TEENS THU.
FREEZE/HARD FREEZE WATCHES ARE IN EFFECT FOR ALL COUNTIES WED
NIGHT...AND WIND CHILL ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED. STAY TUNED.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS. BREEZY NNW WINDS 13G18 KTS EXPECTED BY
EARLY AFTERNOON WED.

&&

.MARINE...CURRENT DATA BUOY OBS INDICATING WEST WINDS INCREASING OFFSHORE THE
SE GA COAST. AS THE FIRST COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT...WINDS
WILL SHIFT TO NW AND INCREASE TO EXERCISE CAUTION OFFSHORE. WINDS
WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE WEDNESDAY WITH ADVISORY CONDITIONS
DEVELOPING OFFSHORE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND ALL LEGS BY
EARLY EVENING. THE ARCTIC FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE WATERS DURING
WEDNESDAY EVENING BRINGING POSSIBLE GALE FORCE WINDS OFFSHORE.

.RIP CURRENTS...LOW RISK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  36  53  24  39 /   0   0   0   0
SSI  42  57  30  41 /   0   0   0   0
JAX  38  60  26  40 /   0   0   0   0
SGJ  42  61  37  47 /   0   0   0  20
GNV  38  60  26  44 /   0   0   0   0
OCF  38  62  29  48 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HARD FREEZE WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR ALACHUA-BAKER-BRADFORD-COLUMBIA-GILCHRIST-
     HAMILTON-NASSAU-SUWANNEE-UNION.

     FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING
     FOR CLAY-DUVAL-FLAGLER-MARION-PUTNAM-ST JOHNS.

GA...HARD FREEZE WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR APPLING-ATKINSON-BACON-BRANTLEY-CHARLTON-CLINCH-
     COASTAL CAMDEN-COASTAL GLYNN-COFFEE-ECHOLS-INLAND CAMDEN-
     INLAND GLYNN-JEFF DAVIS-PIERCE-WARE-WAYNE.

AM...GALE WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR
     ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM
     OFFSHORE-FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST AUGUSTINE FL 20 NM TO 60 NM
     OFFSHORE-ST AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM
     OFFSHORE.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM TO 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM
     OFFSHORE-FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST AUGUSTINE FL 20 NM TO 60 NM
     OFFSHORE-ST AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM
     OFFSHORE.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 PM WEDNESDAY TO 10 AM EST THURSDAY
     FOR ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL OUT 20 NM-
     FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST AUGUSTINE FL OUT 20 NM-ST AUGUSTINE
     TO FLAGLER BEACH FL OUT 20 NM.

&&

ENYEDI/PETERSON

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
355 PM EST TUE JAN 6 2015

AMZ450-452-454-470-472-474-FLZ020>025-030>033-035>038-040-
GAZ132>136-149>154-162>166-071100-
ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL OUT 20 NM-
FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST AUGUSTINE FL OUT 20 NM-
ST AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL OUT 20 NM-
ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST AUGUSTINE FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
ST AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-HAMILTON-
SUWANNEE-COLUMBIA-BAKER-NASSAU-DUVAL-UNION-BRADFORD-CLAY-ST JOHNS-
GILCHRIST-ALACHUA-PUTNAM-FLAGLER-MARION-COFFEE-JEFF DAVIS-BACON-
APPLING-WAYNE-ATKINSON-WARE-PIERCE-BRANTLEY-INLAND GLYNN-
COASTAL GLYNN-ECHOLS-CLINCH-CHARLTON-INLAND CAMDEN-COASTAL CAMDEN-
355 PM EST TUE JAN 6 2015

...HARD FREEZE AND FREEZE WATCHES WITH LOW WIND CHILLS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AND GALE WATCH...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST FLORIDA...SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT...

A RIVER FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE SATILLA RIVER AT ATKINSON.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

INLAND HARD FREEZE AND FREEZE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
NIGHTS. WIND CHILL TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY
MORNING WILL BE IN THE TEENS AND LOWER 20S.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AND GALE CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED AT THIS TIME.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
IN JACKSONVILLE WEBSITE ON THE INTERNET AT WEATHER.GOV/JAX.