Areal Flood Advisory 310, NWS Jacksonville, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
1057 AM EST SUN NOV 8 2015

.UPDATE...
THE NORTHEAST SURGE HAS WORKED ITS WAY DOWN TO A SURFACE BOUNDARY
WHICH IS CURRENTLY ANALYZED AS A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT ALONG THE
I-10 CORRIDOR. SIGNIFICANT VEERING OF WINDS WITH HEIGHT AND STRONG
COASTAL CONVERGENCE WITH HIGH PWAT VALUES ARE WORKING TOGETHER TO
CREATE A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR LOW TOPPED MOSTLY THUNDERLESS
CONVECTION. SO FAR ONLY ONE LIGHTNING STRIKE HAS BEEN OBSERVED
WITH THE CONVECTION THIS MORNING.

STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE MAKING FOR SOME POCKETS OF HEAVY
RAINFALL AND SOME TRAINING OF CELLS HAVE ALREADY LED TO AN AREA OF
3 TO 4 INCHES OF RAIN ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WESTSIDE OF
JACKSONVILLE THIS MORNING. RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP WITH
WIDESPREAD RAIN EXPECTED ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-10 CORRIDOR.
CONVECTION WILL BE MORE SCATTERED ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ZONES. MOST
OF THE RAIN ACROSS SE GA WILL BE OF THE LIGHT TO MODERATE CATEGORY
WITH HEAVIER RAIN MORE LIKELY TO OCCUR ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
NEAR THE FLORIDA/GA BORDER. WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
SE GA THROUGH TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE GULF.

&&

.AVIATION...
WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS/VSBYS GENERALLY IN THE 1000-2000 FT RANGE
AND 3-5 MILE RANGE VISIBILITIES IN LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN SHOWERS
TODAY. ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN TOO ISOLD TO INCLUDE
IN FORECAST AT THIS TIME. NE WINDS WILL RANGE FROM 20 KNOTS AT
KSSI TO 10-15 KNOTS AND GUSTY AT NE FL TAF SITES. PERIODS OF LOWER
IFR CIGS/VSBYS IN THE HEAVIER RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE WELL INTO
TONIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
NORTHEAST SURGE IS CURRENTLY PRODUCING SCA CONDITIONS NORTH OF ST
AUGUSTINE. WE HAVE ALREADY SEEN PEAK GUSTS TO 35 KNOTS AT THE
GRAYS REEF BUOY THIS MORNING. NORTHEAST WINDS 20 TO 30 KNOTS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO GALE FORCE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WATERS ADJACENT TO SE GA. SEAS WILL ALSO
CONTINUE TO BUILD THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

THE SURGE WILL NOT QUITE MAKE IT ALL THE WAY DOWN TO THE ADJACENT
WATERS SOUTH OF ST AUGUSTINE SO THIS AREA WILL REMAIN HEADLINE
FREE. THE SURGE WILL BE RELATIVELY SHORT LIVED AND AS IT BEGINS TO
RETREAT NORTH THIS EVENING...WINDS WILL BEGIN TO TURN TO THE EAST
AND SUBSIDE.

RIP CURRENTS: NORTHEAST SURGE WILL MAKE FOR A HIGH RISK OF RIP
CURRENTS AT AREA BEACHES FROM ST SIMONS ISLAND TO JACKSONVILLE AND
A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT AREA BEACHES SOUTH OF
JACKSONVILLE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  64  58  69  61 / 100 100  80  30
SSI  69  67  72  63 /  90 100  80  30
JAX  74  70  76  65 /  80  90  70  20
SGJ  79  73  80  66 /  60  70  60  30
GNV  78  72  78  66 /  60  80  60  20
OCF  82  73  81  67 /  50  70  50  20

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR COASTAL DUVAL-
     COASTAL NASSAU.

GA...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR COASTAL CAMDEN-
     COASTAL GLYNN.

AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST MONDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS
     FROM ALTAMAHA SOUND TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL OUT 20 NM-
     COASTAL WATERS FROM FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST. AUGUSTINE FL
     OUT 20 NM-WATERS FROM ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH
     FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST.
     AUGUSTINE FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

SHULER/NELSON/COMBS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
404 AM EST SUN NOV 8 2015

AMZ450-452-454-470-472-474-FLZ020>025-030>033-035>038-040-124-125-
GAZ132>136-149>154-162>166-091000-
COASTAL WATERS FROM ALTAMAHA SOUND TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL OUT
20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST. AUGUSTINE FL OUT
20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM ST. AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL FROM 20 TO
60 NM-
WATERS FROM FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST. AUGUSTINE FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM ST. AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
HAMILTON-SUWANNEE-COLUMBIA-BAKER-INLAND NASSAU-INLAND DUVAL-UNION-
BRADFORD-CLAY-ST. JOHNS-GILCHRIST-ALACHUA-PUTNAM-FLAGLER-MARION-
COASTAL NASSAU-COASTAL DUVAL-COFFEE-JEFF DAVIS-BACON-APPLING-
WAYNE-ATKINSON-WARE-PIERCE-BRANTLEY-INLAND GLYNN-COASTAL GLYNN-
ECHOLS-CLINCH-CHARLTON-INLAND CAMDEN-COASTAL CAMDEN-
404 AM EST SUN NOV 8 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS...

...WINDY WITH A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE COAST...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST FLORIDA...
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

A BRIEF PERIOD OF LOCALLY DENSE FOG ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR FROM
JACKSONVILLE TO BRUNSWICK IS EXPECTED EARLY THIS MORNING WHICH
SHOULD DISSIPATE AROUND SUNRISE.

INCREASING NORTHEASTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF A
COLD FRONT TODAY...WITH NUMEROUS TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND
BRIEF LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE IN COASTAL LOCATIONS
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. WINDY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP ALONG
THE COAST AND ATLANTIC WATERS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE POSTED
FOR THE COASTAL WATERS. ROUGH SURF...MINOR BEACH EROSION AND AN
ELEVATED RISK OF RIP CURRENTS WILL IMPACT THE COAST...ALONG WITH
TIDAL DEPARTURES ALONG THE COAST OF 1 TO 1.5 FEET DURING THE HIGH
TIDE CYCLES TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING...BUT COASTAL FLOODING IS
NOT EXPECTED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

THE ONSHORE FLOW WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...BUT
AN ELEVATED RISK OF RIP CURRENTS WILL LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF THE
WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
IN JACKSONVILLE WEBSITE ON THE INTERNET AT WEATHER.GOV/JAX.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
1057 AM EST SUN NOV 08 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0929 AM     NON-TSTM WND GST 5 E BRUNSWICK           31.15N 81.38W
11/08/2015  M40 MPH          GLYNN              GA   ASOS

            WIND GUST OF 40 MPH MEASURED BY THE KSSI ASOS.

&&

COMBS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
1143 AM EST SUN NOV 08 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1115 AM     NON-TSTM WND GST 1 NNE JEKYLL ISLAND     31.05N 81.41W
11/08/2015  M42 MPH          GLYNN              GA   MESONET

            MEASURED WIND GUST OF 42 MPH.

&&

COMBS