Special Weather Statement, NWS Jackson, MS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1020 AM CDT SAT OCT 31 2015

..WET WEEKEND AND STORMY HALLOWEEN EXPECTED...

.UPDATE...IMPRESSIVE HEAVY RAINFALL SETUP TODAY ACROSS THE LOWER MS
VALLEY WITH HIGH NORTHWARD GULF MOISTURE TRANSPORT FEEDING A SLOWLY
PROGRESSIVE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX THAT IS SHOWING A TENDENCY TO REMAIN
ANCHORED TO RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF JET STREAK OVER THE ARKLATEX.
STILL LOOKS TO BE ENOUGH OF AN INCOMING FRONTAL WAVE TO PUSH
CURRENTLY-ORGANIZING ASPECTS OF CONVECTION IN CENTRAL LA EAST ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE CWA THROUGH THE DAY. HEAVY RAIN AND
EMBEDDED STORMS EXTENDING NORTH OF THE MAIN CONVECTIVE ANCHOR WILL
TRANSFER EAST AS WELL. CURRENT LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY ANYWHERE CLOSE
TO 500 J/KG MLCAPE IS CONFINED TO THE COAST AND JUST NORTHWARD...BUT
HRRR IS INSISTENT THIS AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY WILL EXPAND NORTH IN
FRONT OF VIGOROUS CONVECTION BY MIDDAY AND INTO THE AFTERNOON (AS
FAR NORTH AS MY SOUTHERN ZONES). THE REALIZATION OF THIS
DESTABILIZATION IS SOMEWHAT TIED TO WHETHER OR NOT SOME SUNSHINE CAN
BREAK OUT IN THOSE SOUTHERN AREAS...AND THERE IS STILL SOME
POSSIBILITY THAT WILL BE TOUGH TO ACHIEVE.

THE INHERITED FORECAST HANDLES THE SITUATION QUITE WELL THROUGH
TONIGHT WITH FLASH FLOOD WATCH SET TO EXPAND EAST WITH MAIN HEAVY
RAIN THREAT. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL THE WATCH MAY NEED TO BE
MODIFIED TO FACILITATE THREAT EXPANSION EASTWARD MORE QUICKLY...AND
WE WILL KEEP A CLOSE EYE FOR THAT POSSIBILITY. LIMITED RISK OF
SEVERE WEATHER AND TORNADOES CONFINED TO SOUTHERN ZONES LOOKS GOOD
AT PRESENT. IF PREVIOUSLY-MENTIONED DESTABILIZATION LOOKS TO OCCUR
EFFICIENTLY IN THE PINE BELT IN THE MIDDAY TO EARLY AFTERNOON IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT THE SEVERE WEATHER RISK COULD GET ENHANCED TOWARD HBG
IN THE AFTERNOON. WE WILL MONITOR FOR THAT POTENTIAL EVOLUTION...BUT
FOR NOW....WILL LEAVE THE HWO LARGELY ALONE DUE TO CONTINUED
UNCERTAINTY IN THAT REGARD. /BB/

&&

.AVIATION...AREA RADARS WERE PICKING UP SOME LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINS
ACROSS THE REGION WITH MVFR-IFR VISIBILITIES. CIGS ACROSS THE REGION
THIS MORNING WERE GENERALLY MVFR TO VFR LEVELS. EXPECT HEAVY RAINS
WITH TSRA TO PUSH ACROSS THE REGION BY BY THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING WHICH WILL BRING MVFR-IFR CIGS AND VISIBILITIES. LOCALIZED
STRONG WIND GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE STORMS. /17/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 503 AM CDT SAT OCT 31 2015/

SHORT TERM...

TODAY THROUGH MONDAY MORNING...

OVERALL WET PATTERN IS IN STORE AS THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE SRN
PLAINS SLOWLY PROPAGATES TO THE E/NE. SFC ANALYSIS INDICATES ~1002MB
SFC LOW OVER SRN TX/NRN MEXICO AND THIS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE
E/NE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW VERY HIGH
ANOMALOUS PWATS OF 2-3 SD'S ABOVE NORMAL AND 850MB MOISTURE FLUX
APPROACHING 4-6 SD'S MOVING IN LATER THIS AFTERNOON. AS THE SFC LOW
MOVES NE...EXPECT MOISTURE ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC LIFT TO INCREASE
FAIRLY RAPIDLY AS THE H85 LOW LEVEL JET KICKS UP BRINGING PW'S
APPROACHING 2-2.25 INCHES. THIS IS WELL ABOVE THE CLIMATOLOGICAL
MAXIMUM FOR OCTOBER 31ST WHICH IS AROUND TO JUST BELOW 2 INCHES.
THIS TROPICAL AIRMASS WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY AND FLASH
FLOODING RAINFALL. IN ADDITION TO THE ANOMALOUS
MOISTURE/ADVECTION...THERE COULD BE SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY N OF
I-20 AND MORE NEAR SFC BASED INSTABILITY S OF I-20 CORRIDOR.

EXPECT SOME CONVECTIVE FEATURES TO REALLY INCREASE THE RAINFALL
TOTALS ACROSS THE AREA. WENT AHEAD AND ISSUED A FLASH FLOOD WATCH DUE
ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS AND THE PREVIOUS DROUGHT MOSTLY BEING MADE UP
FOR WITH 6-10 INCH RAINFALL EVENT THE PAST WEEKEND. RAINFALL TOTALS
OF 1-3 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE. SOME OF THE
HI-RES GUIDANCE IS NOT AS POTENT AS THE PREVIOUS SYSTEM LAST WEEKEND.
HOWEVER...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED WITH SOME 4+ INCH AMOUNTS. DUE TO
SOME HI-RES GUIDANCE BOUNCING AROUND...IT IS STILL DIFFICULT TO PIN
DOWN THE EXACT LOCATION. HOWEVER WITH THE ENVIRONMENTAL SETUP...WARM
CLOUD PROCESSES ADDED TO VERY EFFICIENT MOISTURE ADVECTION OF A
TROPICAL AIRMASS WILL LEAD TO HEAVY RAIN AND POSSIBLY SOME
FLOODING...DUE TO PREVIOUS ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS MENTIONED. THE FLASH
FLOOD WATCH WILL CONTINUE IN THE WESTERN AREAS IN NE LA/WRN MS
THROUGH NOON AND IN CENTRAL MS THROUGH 7PM AND ERN MS THROUGH
MIDNIGHT. ANY AREAS THAT THE CONVECTIVE FEATURES BEGIN TO TRAIN VERY
EFFICIENT HEAVY RAINFALL COULD FALL AND POTENTIALLY LEAD TO FLASH
FLOODING.

HI-RES HRRR/ARW AND GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE A LINE OF STORMS...PER
HI-RES LOOKS TO BE QLCS MOVING IN...AROUND NOON TODAY INTO NE
LA...CENTRAL MS AROUND 3-5PM AND ERN MS AROUND 6-8PM OR SO. SOME OF
THE HI-RES ARW/HRRR RUNS SHOW A PRETTY POTENT QLCS MOVING INTO THE
AREA. DUE TO DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 70S IN S MS AND SOME LOWER
INSTABILITY...MAINLY LESS THAN 400-500 J/KG...AND SOME DECENT LOW
LEVEL SHEAR/GOOD SIZE CLOCKWISE CURVING HODOGRAPHS...WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED THE AREA S OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR...TO HAVE SOME POTENTIAL
FOR A TORNADO. AREAS FURTHER N ARE CAPPED OFF WITH WARM LOW LEVEL
INVERSION. HOWEVER...ANY AREAS IN THE LINE THAT CAN BOW OUT AND HAVE
MORE ORTHOGONAL LOW LEVEL WIND VECTORS COULD NOT BE RULED OUT FURTHER
N TO PRODUCE SOME DAMAGING WINDS AND POSSIBLY A QUICK SPIN-UP
TORNADO. IF A QLCS DOES DEVELOP...EXPECT DAMAGING WINDS TO ALSO BE
POSSIBLE WITH THIS LINE.

AS THE STORMS MOVES THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING...THERE COULD BE SOME CLEARING BEFORE MORE RAIN BEGINS TO
MOVE BACK IN THE SW BY EARLY/MID MORNING SUNDAY. EXPECT THIS TREND TO
CONTINUE ON SUNDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM OPENS UP AND EJECTS TO
THE NE AS THE RIDGE OVER THE SE CONUS BUILDS E. THERE WILL BE BETTER
LAPSE RATES AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES TOWARDS THE AREA AND DIVERGENCE
WILL INCREASE AS THE REGION...ESPECIALLY E/SE MS GETS IN THE
FAVORABLE EXIT REGION OF THE DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE
AREA. STRONGEST LLJ WILL BE E OF THE AREA BUT EXPECT MORE
SHOWERS/STORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE AREA. RAINFALL AGAIN COULD BE
HEAVY WITH 1-3 INCHES POSSIBLE. SEVERE RISK COULDN'T BE RULED OUT BUT
WITH LOW LEVEL FLOW WEAKER...NOT EXPECTING AS MUCH POTENTIAL. FOR NOW
WILL GO AHEAD WITH JUST A LIMITED RISK ALONG/E OF THE NATCHEZ TRACE
IN THE HWO FOR HEAVY RAIN AND MONITOR FOR LATER TRENDS. EXPECT TRENDS
TO WIND DOWN AS THE UPPER LOW QUICKLY EJECTS NE AND THE LOW GRADUALLY
WEAKENS MONDAY.

FOR FORECAST ELEMENTS...WENT NEAR MOS FOR TEMPS. POPS WERE IN PRETTY
GOOD SHAPE WITH DEFINITE WORDING IN WEATHER GRIDS. KEPT THUNDER IN
MAINLY ALONG/S OF I-20 TODAY AND ALONG/SE OF NATCHEZ TRACE
TOMORROW. KEPT LIMITED GOING IN HWO/GRAPHICS FOR FLOODING SATURDAY
AND ADDED A LIMITED RISK ALONG/SE OF NATCHEZ TRACE ON SUNDAY. LEFT A
LIMITED FOR SEVERE S OF I-20 CORRIDOR IN THE HWO/GRAPHICS. /DC/

LONG TERM...

MONDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY NIGHT...

THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT OUT AND WEAKEN BRINGING
AN END TO THE RAIN CHANCES MONDAY. A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS
THEN EXPECTED TO BUILD OVER THE SOUTHEAST CONUS AND BRING A LONG
STRETCH OF UNSEASONABLY WARM AND DRY WEATHER AS WE GO THROUGH THE
FIRST WEEK OF NOVEMBER. GIVEN THE ANOMALOUS H850 TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED TO APPROACH 18 DEG C...HAVE FOLLOWED THE WARMER MEX MOS
GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES SHOWING HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S...BUT EVEN
THESE NUMBERS COULD ULTIMATELY BE A LITTLE TOO COOL. RECORD HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE GENERALLY IN THE MID 80S AS WE GET OUT TO WED/THU
AND SOME COULD BE IN JEOPARDY IF THIS PATTERN VERIFIES. OTHERWISE...
THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN IS EXPECTED TO MOVE IN FOR THE START OF NEXT
WEEKEND. THAT EVENT SHOULD FEATURE A SLOW-MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS
THE RIDGE MAKES A VERY GRADUAL RETREAT. /EC/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       70  67  71  60 /  98  87  83  44
MERIDIAN      71  66  71  60 /  89  99  89  72
VICKSBURG     71  65  71  58 / 100  78  71  34
HATTIESBURG   76  70  72  61 /  83 100  90  68
NATCHEZ       74  67  72  60 / 100  83  81  32
GREENVILLE    67  62  69  59 /  97  62  58  49
GREENWOOD     67  62  69  60 /  97  81  70  63

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 4 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS
     EVENING FOR MSZ051-052-057-058-066-073-074.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MSZ040>042-047.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM CDT THIS
     EVENING FOR MSZ043-048>050-053>056-059>065-072.

LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LAZ007>009-015-
     016-023>026.

AR...NONE.
&&

BB/17/DC/EC

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1126 AM CDT SAT OCT 31 2015

ARZ074-075-MSZ018-019-025>039-044>046-011630-
ASHLEY-CHICOT-BOLIVAR-SUNFLOWER-LEFLORE-GRENADA-CARROLL-
MONTGOMERY-WEBSTER-CLAY-LOWNDES-CHOCTAW-OKTIBBEHA-WASHINGTON-
HUMPHREYS-HOLMES-ATTALA-WINSTON-NOXUBEE-LEAKE-NESHOBA-KEMPER-
1126 AM CDT SAT OCT 31 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
ARKANSAS...CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...EAST CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...AND
NORTH CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...THE REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT

FLOODING
THREAT...LIMITED
TIMING...REMAINDER OF TODAY

HEAVY RAINFALL AND LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING ARE POSSIBLE TODAY INTO
TONIGHT. NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP IN AN
UNUSUALLY MOIST ATMOSPHERE...RESULTING IN THE POTENTIAL FOR 1 TO 2
INCHES OF RAIN TO FALL IN A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME. SUCH HEAVY RAIN
COULD RESULT IN LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING...PARTICULARLY WHERE
MULTIPLE STORMS MOVE ACROSS THE SAME LOCATION.

(WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/GRAPHICAST.PHP?SITE=JAN&GC=1)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE AGAIN SUNDAY...MAINLY FOR LOCATIONS ALONG
AND SOUTHEAST OF THE NATCHEZ TRACE CORRIDOR. THE ADDITIONAL HEAVY
RAINFALL COULD LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING.

(WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/GRAPHICAST.PHP?SITE=JAN&GC=3)

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY.

LAZ007>009-MSZ040>043-011630-
MOREHOUSE-WEST CARROLL-EAST CARROLL-ISSAQUENA-SHARKEY-YAZOO-
MADISON MS-
1126 AM CDT SAT OCT 31 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST
LOUISIANA...CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...AND WEST CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...THE REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT

FLOODING
THREAT...ELEVATED
TIMING...REMAINDER OF TODAY

HEAVY RAINFALL AND LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING ARE EXPECTED TODAY
INTO THIS EVENING. NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP
IN AN UNUSUALLY MOIST ATMOSPHERE...RESULTING IN THE POTENTIAL FOR 1
TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN TO FALL IN A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME. SUCH HEAVY
RAIN IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING...PARTICULARLY
WHERE MULTIPLE STORMS MOVE ACROSS THE SAME LOCATION.

(WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/GRAPHICAST.PHP?SITE=JAN&GC=1)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE AGAIN SUNDAY...MAINLY FOR LOCATIONS ALONG
AND SOUTHEAST OF THE NATCHEZ TRACE CORRIDOR. THE ADDITIONAL HEAVY
RAINFALL COULD LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING.

(WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/GRAPHICAST.PHP?SITE=JAN&GC=3)

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY.

LAZ015-016-023>025-MSZ047>059-011630-
RICHLAND-MADISON LA-FRANKLIN LA-CATAHOULA-TENSAS-WARREN-HINDS-
RANKIN-SCOTT-NEWTON-LAUDERDALE-CLAIBORNE-COPIAH-SIMPSON-SMITH-
JASPER-CLARKE-JEFFERSON-
1126 AM CDT SAT OCT 31 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST
LOUISIANA...CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...AND SOUTHWEST MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...THE REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT

TORNADOES
THREAT...LIMITED
TIMING...REMAINDER OF TODAY

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THREAT...LIMITED
TIMING...REMAINDER OF TODAY

FLOODING
THREAT...ELEVATED
TIMING...REMAINDER OF TODAY

HEAVY RAINFALL AND LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING ARE EXPECTED TODAY
INTO THIS EVENING. NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP
IN AN UNUSUALLY MOIST ATMOSPHERE...RESULTING IN THE POTENTIAL FOR 1
TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN TO FALL IN A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME. SUCH HEAVY
RAIN IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING...PARTICULARLY
WHERE MULTIPLE STORMS MOVE ACROSS THE SAME LOCATION.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH AND POTENTIALLY A
TORNADO ARE POSSIBLE GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 20
CORRIDOR. ACROSS EAST-CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI THE THREAT MAY WAIT UNTIL
LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

(WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/GRAPHICAST.PHP?SITE=JAN&GC=1)
(WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/GRAPHICAST.PHP?SITE=JAN&GC=2)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE AGAIN SUNDAY...MAINLY FOR LOCATIONS ALONG
AND SOUTHEAST OF THE NATCHEZ TRACE CORRIDOR. THE ADDITIONAL HEAVY
RAINFALL COULD LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING.

(WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/GRAPHICAST.PHP?SITE=JAN&GC=3)

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE REGION THE REST
OF TODAY.

LAZ026-MSZ060>066-072>074-011630-
CONCORDIA-ADAMS-FRANKLIN MS-LINCOLN-LAWRENCE-JEFFERSON DAVIS-
COVINGTON-JONES-MARION-LAMAR-FORREST-
1126 AM CDT SAT OCT 31 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST
LOUISIANA...AND SOUTH CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...THE REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT

TORNADOES
THREAT...LIMITED
TIMING...REMAINDER OF TODAY

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THREAT...ELEVATED
TIMING...REMAINDER OF TODAY

FLOODING
THREAT...ELEVATED
TIMING...REMAINDER OF TODAY

HEAVY RAINFALL AND LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING ARE EXPECTED TODAY
INTO THIS EVENING. NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP
IN AN UNUSUALLY MOIST ATMOSPHERE...RESULTING IN THE POTENTIAL FOR 1
TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN TO FALL IN A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME. SUCH HEAVY
RAIN IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING...PARTICULARLY
WHERE MULTIPLE STORMS MOVE ACROSS THE SAME LOCATION.

AT LEAST A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH AND
POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE TORNADOES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE DAY...MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE HIGHWAY 84 CORRIDOR.

(WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/GRAPHICAST.PHP?SITE=JAN&GC=1)
(WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/GRAPHICAST.PHP?SITE=JAN&GC=2)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE AGAIN SUNDAY...MAINLY FOR LOCATIONS ALONG
AND SOUTHEAST OF THE NATCHEZ TRACE CORRIDOR. THE ADDITIONAL HEAVY
RAINFALL COULD LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING.

(WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/GRAPHICAST.PHP?SITE=JAN&GC=3)

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE REGION THE REST
OF TODAY.

50

&&

...HAZARD LEGEND...

*FLOODING*
EXTREME...CONFIDENT IN SIGNIFICANT FLOODING.
SIGNIFICANT...SIGNIFICANT FLOODING POSSIBLE.
ELEVATED...CONFIDENT IN FLOODING.
LIMITED...FLOODING POSSIBLE.

*TORNADOES*
EXTREME...CONFIDENT IN STRONG TORNADOES WITH RATINGS EF2 OR
 GREATER.
SIGNIFICANT...STRONG TORNADOES POSSIBLE WITH RATINGS EF2 OR
 GREATER.
ELEVATED...CONFIDENT IN TORNADOES.
LIMITED...TORNADOES POSSIBLE.

*SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS*
EXTREME...CONFIDENT IN SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH WIND GUSTS OF
 75 MPH OR GREATER AND/OR 2 INCH DIAMETER OR LARGER HAIL.
SIGNIFICANT...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE WITH WIND GUSTS OF
 75 MPH OR GREATER AND/OR 2 INCH DIAMETER OR LARGER HAIL.
ELEVATED...CONFIDENT IN SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH WINDS GUSTS OF
 60 MPH OR GREATER AND/OR 1 INCH DIAMETER OR LARGER HAIL.
LIMITED...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE WITH WIND GUSTS OF 60
 MPH OR GREATER AND/OR 1 INCH DIAMETER OR LARGER HAIL.

...USEFUL WEATHER WEB PAGES (URLS)...

NWS JAN HOME PAGE...
   WWW.WEATHER.GOV/JAN
STAY AWARE, STAY SAFE NWS JAN BRIEFING PAGE...
   WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAN/?N=SAFE
NWS JAN TROPICAL PAGE...
   WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAN/?N=TROPICAL
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER HOME PAGE...
   WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/
FIND NWS JAN ON FACEBOOK...
   WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSJACKSONMS
FOLLOW NWS JAN ON TWITTER...
   @NWSJACKSONMS

...ADDITIONAL URLS FOR SEVERE WEATHER ISSUES...

STORM PREDICTION CENTER (SPC)...
   WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/
SPC...MESO ANALYSIS...
   WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/EXPER/MESOANALYSIS/NEW/#
SPC...DAY 1 THROUGH 3 OUTLOOKS...
   WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/PRODUCTS/OUTLOOK/
SPC...STORM REPORTS...
   WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/CLIMO/
NWS JAN CURRENT SVR/TOR WATCHES...
   WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/RTIMAGES/JAN/WATCH/TOASVA.PNG

   PLEASE CONVERT ALL WEB ADDRESSES TO LOWER CASE BEFORE ENTERING!

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1059 AM CDT SAT OCT 31 2015

LAZ016-023>026-MSZ047-053-059-060-311630-
TENSAS LA-FRANKLIN LA-CATAHOULA LA-CONCORDIA LA-MADISON LA-ADAMS MS-
WARREN MS-CLAIBORNE MS-JEFFERSON MS-
1059 AM CDT SAT OCT 31 2015

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHEASTERN CONCORDIA...EAST
CENTRAL CATAHOULA...EASTERN FRANKLIN...CENTRAL MADISON AND TENSAS
PARISHES...SOUTHWESTERN WARREN...SOUTHWESTERN CLAIBORNE...NORTH
CENTRAL ADAMS AND NORTHWESTERN JEFFERSON COUNTIES UNTIL 1130 AM
CDT...

AT 1058 AM CDT...METEOROLOGISTS WERE TRACKING A LINE OF STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM NEAR WINNSBORO TO NEAR
COOTER POINT TO FROGMORE...AND MOVING EAST AT 50 MPH.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR...
  COOTER POINT AROUND 1105 AM CDT.
  CROWVILLE AROUND 1110 AM CDT.
  NATCHEZ...ST. JOSEPH...SPOKANE AND LAKE BRUIN AROUND 1115 AM CDT.
  NEWELLTON AROUND 1120 AM CDT.
  TALLULAH...CHURCH HILL AND AFTON AROUND 1130 AM CDT.

OTHER LOCATIONS IMPACTED BY THESE STORMS INCLUDE BASKIN...GILBERT AND
RICHMOND.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

HIGH WINDS CAN BRING DOWN TREES AND LARGE LIMBS RESULTING IN SERIOUS
INJURY OR PROPERTY DAMAGE. EXERCISE EXTREME CAUTION WHEN OUTDOORS
DURING SUCH STRONG WINDS...AND BE ESPECIALLY AWARE OF OLDER TREES.

&&

LAT...LON 3226 9177 3242 9115 3213 9092 3175 9110
      3153 9175 3194 9156 3222 9181
TIME...MOT...LOC 1558Z 251DEG 45KT 3220 9171 3196 9149 3160 9166

17

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1139 AM CDT SAT OCT 31 2015

LAZ024-026-311730-
CATAHOULA LA-CONCORDIA LA-
1139 AM CDT SAT OCT 31 2015

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT WESTERN CONCORDIA AND
SOUTHWESTERN CATAHOULA PARISHES UNTIL 1230 PM CDT...

AT 1139 AM CDT...METEOROLOGISTS WERE TRACKING A LINE OF STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM NEAR WALTERS TO BROUILLETTE
TO NEAR BUNKIE...AND MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR...
  WALTERS AND ARCHIE AROUND 1145 AM CDT.
  ACME AROUND 1200 PM CDT.
  SLOCUM AND BLACK HAWK AROUND 1215 PM CDT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

HIGH WINDS CAN BRING DOWN TREES AND LARGE LIMBS RESULTING IN SERIOUS
INJURY OR PROPERTY DAMAGE. EXERCISE EXTREME CAUTION WHEN OUTDOORS
DURING SUCH STRONG WINDS...AND BE ESPECIALLY AWARE OF OLDER TREES.

&&

LAT...LON 3130 9200 3160 9201 3158 9159 3126 9159
      3125 9166 3121 9160 3104 9165 3104 9172
      3114 9172 3120 9170 3123 9179 3130 9191
      3127 9195 3123 9192 3123 9200 3124 9201
      3125 9199
TIME...MOT...LOC 1639Z 267DEG 33KT 3156 9205 3123 9202 3088 9218

17

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1213 PM CDT SAT OCT 31 2015

MSZ048-053-054-059-311800-
CLAIBORNE MS-HINDS MS-JEFFERSON MS-COPIAH MS-
1213 PM CDT SAT OCT 31 2015

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHWESTERN COPIAH...
SOUTHWESTERN HINDS...SOUTHEASTERN CLAIBORNE AND NORTHEASTERN
JEFFERSON COUNTIES UNTIL 100 PM CDT...

AT 1212 PM CDT...METEOROLOGISTS WERE TRACKING A LINE OF STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM NEAR ROCKY SPRINGS TO NEAR
FAYETTE...AND MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR...
  ROCKY SPRINGS AROUND 1220 PM CDT.
  CARPENTER AROUND 1230 PM CDT.
  UTICA AND BLUE HILL AROUND 1240 PM CDT.
  PATTISON AROUND 1245 PM CDT.
  PEYTON AND HERMANVILLE AROUND 1250 PM CDT.

LAT...LON 3174 9117 3210 9087 3218 9048 3172 9086
TIME...MOT...LOC 1712Z 249DEG 30KT 3206 9086 3175 9114

17