Special Weather Statement, NWS Jackson, MS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
413 PM CDT THU AUG 20 2015

.DISCUSSION...FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPEARS TO BE STALLED VERY CLOSE TO
THE NATCHEZ TRACE CORRIDOR THIS AFTERNOON...FROM COLUMBUS TO NEAR
JACKSON TO MONROE. NORTH OF THIS BOUNDARY...TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN
RATHER PLEASANT WITH READINGS IN THE 70S AND PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER.
SOUTH OF THE FRONT...READINGS MADE IT INTO THE MID AND UPPER 80S
WITH EVEN SOME LOWER 90S AROUND THE JACKSON AREA. MORNING CLOUD
COVER HAS GIVEN WAY TO A BIT OF SUNSHINE THIS AFTERNOON WHICH HAS
HELPED FUEL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MOIST AIRMASS TO THE
SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY. THESE STORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND SOME SHOWERS COULD LINGER OVERNIGHT
NEAR THE STALLED FRONT.

THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT WILL REMAIN STALLED INTO FRIDAY BUT
EVENTUALLY SHIFT BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL
AGAIN BE POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY BUT GIVEN A LACK OF A FOCUSING
MECHANISM...EXPECT THAT CONVECTION WILL BE MORE OF THE DIURNAL/PEAK
HEATING VARIETY IN OUR CONTINUED MOIST/TROPICAL AIRMASS.

COME SATURDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL BEGIN TO CHANGE AS THE
CENTER OF THE MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL SHIFT FROM THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF
OF MEXICO BACK INTO CENTRAL TEXAS. THIS WILL LEAVE THE REGION UNDER
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND DISTURBANCES RIDGING DOWN THIS UPPER LEVEL
FLOW WILL AFFECTED THE ARKLAMISS REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS
WILL MEAN CONTINUED RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE WEEKEND...THOUGH
PERCENTAGES ARE CURRENTLY NOT AS HIGH AS WE HAVE BEEN SEEING THIS
WEEK. WITH THE SOMEWHAT DRIER CONDITIONS...AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES
WILL ONCE AGAIN RISE INTO THE 90S. LOCATIONS THAT HAVE SEEN A LACK
OF RAINFALL THIS WEEK MAY EVEN GET INTO THE MID 90S. LAPSE RATES
SEEM TO GET A LITTLE BETTER WITH VERTICAL TOTALS NEARING 27-28C ON
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AND LIFTED INDICES ARE FORECAST TO BE AROUND -7
TO -10C. THIS MAY WARRANT OUTLOOKING SOME PORTION OF THE AREA IN THE
HWO IN FUTURE FORECASTS IF TRENDS CONTINUE.

ANOTHER COLD FRONT LOOKS TO DIP DOWN TOWARD THE REGION ON MONDAY.
UNLIKE THIS RECENT FRONT...MODELS DEPICT IT ACTUALLY MAKING ITS WAY
THROUGH THE ENTIRE CWA BY TUESDAY WITH A 1020MB SFC HIGH IN ITS
WAKE. THIS WILL BRING A MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS INTO THE
REGION FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE
80S...SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. OVERNIGHT
LOWS COULD ACTUALLY BE IN THE 60S FOR MUCH OF THE CWA...WITH LOWER
60S IN THE NORTH. SOME MODELS INDICATE THAT DEWPOINTS COULD EVEN BE
IN THE 50S...WHICH WOULD BE RATHER NIGHT FOR LATE AUGUST IN THE
SOUTH. SOMETHING TO DEFINITELY LOOK FORWARD TO AFTER THE STRETCH OF
HEAT WE SAW EARLIER THIS MONTH. /28/

&&

.AVIATION...THUNDERSTORMS IMPACTING THE KMEI AND KHBG AREAS THIS
AFTERNOON SO HAVE MADE SOME AMEMDMENTS TO INCLUDE THOSE IMPACTS.
OTHERWISE...SOME LOWER CLOUDS MAY FORM OVERNIGHT AND THEN BREAKUP
AROUND 14Z FRIDAY. /SW/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       71  90  73  92 /  33  58  16  37
MERIDIAN      70  91  70  91 /  34  50  26  37
VICKSBURG     71  89  72  92 /  33  56  23  37
HATTIESBURG   72  92  73  93 /  33  62  23  37
NATCHEZ       72  90  73  91 /  33  57  24  38
GREENVILLE    67  87  72  90 /  36  41  27  47
GREENWOOD     69  87  71  90 /  37  38  26  42

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

28/SW

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
203 PM CDT THU AUG 20 2015

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026-MSZ018-019-025>066-072>074-
211915-
ASHLEY-CHICOT-MOREHOUSE-WEST CARROLL-EAST CARROLL-RICHLAND-
MADISON-FRANKLIN-CATAHOULA-TENSAS-CONCORDIA-BOLIVAR-SUNFLOWER-
LEFLORE-GRENADA-CARROLL-MONTGOMERY-WEBSTER-CLAY-LOWNDES-CHOCTAW-
OKTIBBEHA-WASHINGTON-HUMPHREYS-HOLMES-ATTALA-WINSTON-NOXUBEE-
ISSAQUENA-SHARKEY-YAZOO-LEAKE-NESHOBA-KEMPER-WARREN-HINDS-RANKIN-
SCOTT-NEWTON-LAUDERDALE-CLAIBORNE-COPIAH-SIMPSON-SMITH-JASPER-
CLARKE-JEFFERSON-ADAMS-LINCOLN-LAWRENCE-JEFFERSON DAVIS-COVINGTON-
JONES-MARION-LAMAR-FORREST-
203 PM CDT THU AUG 20 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
ARKANSAS...NORTHEAST LOUISIANA...CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...NORTH
CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...AND SOUTH CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND FRIDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY.

2

&&

...HAZARD LEGEND...

NO SHORT TERM HAZARDS EXPECTED.

...USEFUL WEATHER WEB PAGES (URLS)...

NWS JAN HOME PAGE...
   WWW.WEATHER.GOV/JAN
STAY AWARE, STAY SAFE NWS JAN BRIEFING PAGE...
   WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAN/?N=SAFE
NWS JAN TROPICAL PAGE...
   WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAN/?N=TROPICAL
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER HOME PAGE...
   WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/
FIND NWS JAN ON FACEBOOK...
   WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSJACKSONMS
FOLLOW NWS JAN ON TWITTER...
   @NWSJACKSONMS

   PLEASE CONVERT ALL WEB ADDRESSES TO LOWER CASE BEFORE ENTERING!

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
418 PM CDT THU AUG 20 2015

MSZ049-202145-
RANKIN MS-
418 PM CDT THU AUG 20 2015

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT CENTRAL RANKIN COUNTY UNTIL 445
PM CDT...

AT 418 PM CDT...METEOROLOGISTS WERE TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM
NEAR BRANDON...MOVING NORTH NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

THIS STORM WILL REMAIN OVER MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF CENTRAL RANKIN
COUNTY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD
TO FLASH FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

HIGH WINDS CAN BRING DOWN TREES AND LARGE LIMBS RESULTING IN SERIOUS
INJURY OR PROPERTY DAMAGE. EXERCISE EXTREME CAUTION WHEN OUTDOORS
DURING SUCH STRONG WINDS...AND BE ESPECIALLY AWARE OF OLDER TREES.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 15 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

&&

LAT...LON 3214 8993 3217 9001 3237 8993 3232 8981
TIME...MOT...LOC 2118Z 205DEG 16KT 3224 8994

19

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
513 PM CDT THU AUG 20 2015

MSZ052-202300-
LAUDERDALE MS-
513 PM CDT THU AUG 20 2015

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHEASTERN LAUDERDALE COUNTY
UNTIL 600 PM CDT...

AT 513 PM CDT...METEOROLOGISTS WERE TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM
NEAR ALAMUCHA...OR 11 MILES EAST OF MERIDIAN...MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

THIS STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  ALAMUCHA AROUND 525 PM CDT.
  KEWANEE AROUND 535 PM CDT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD
TO FLASH FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

HIGH WINDS CAN BRING DOWN TREES AND LARGE LIMBS RESULTING IN SERIOUS
INJURY OR PROPERTY DAMAGE. EXERCISE EXTREME CAUTION WHEN OUTDOORS
DURING SUCH STRONG WINDS...AND BE ESPECIALLY AWARE OF OLDER TREES.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 15 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

&&

LAT...LON 3224 8843 3223 8843 3223 8861 3232 8863
      3242 8857 3243 8841
TIME...MOT...LOC 2213Z 267DEG 15KT 3232 8853

19