Special Weather Statement, NWS Jackson, MS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
401 PM CDT SAT AUG 8 2015

...OPPRESSIVE HEAT CONTINUES INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...

.DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...WE ARE RUNNING OUT OF USEFUL
ADJECTIVES TO DESCRIBE HOW HOT IT IS OUTSIDE TODAY AND HOW HOT IT IS
GOING TO BE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES HAVE ALREADY
TOPPED 100 IN SEVERAL AREAS TODAY, INCLUDING JAN, TVR, NMM, AND BQP.
HEAT INDICES HAVE REACHED 110 AS FAR EAST AT GTR AND NMM. THE ONLY
RELIEF TO SPEAK OF RIGHT NOW IS SCATTERED SHOWER/STORM ACTIVITY ALONG
THE I-59 CORRIDOR. ADDITIONALLY, ACTIVITY MORE ISOLATED IN NATURE
HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE DELTA. EVEN WITH THESE SHOWERS BRINGING
BRIEF TEMPERATURE RELIEF, THEY ARE LEAVING HIGHER DEWPOINTS IN THEIR
WAKE. THIS CONVECTION WILL DIMINISH AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET.

THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD EASTWARD TOMORROW INTO EARLY MONDAY,
LIMITING RAIN CHANCES AND BRINGING EVEN HIGHER TEMPS. WITH TRIPLE
DIGIT TEMPS COMMON AND DEWPOINTS REMAINING IN THE LOWER 70S, HEAT
INDICES WILL SURPASS 110 IN MANY AREAS, ESPECIALLY THE FARTHER WEST
YOU ARE IN THE CWA. NO CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE ALIGNMENT OF THE
EXISTING HEAT ADVISORY AND EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING. THE WARNING WILL
TAKE EFFECT OVER A LARGER CHUNK OF THE FORECAST AREA (EAST OF THE MS
RIVER) TOMORROW. IT IS POSSIBLE LATER SHIFTS WILL NEED TO EXPAND THE
WARNING TO INCLUDE ALL OF THE CWA, AS MAX HEAT INDICES ARE EXPECTED
TO BE NEAR 110 IN THOSE AREAS AS WELL. BOTH PRODUCTS WERE EXTENDED
IN TIME THROUGH MONDAY AS FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS RATHER HIGH. FOR
HAZARD MAPS, THE EXTREME CATEGORY WAS EXPANDED A BIT FARTHER EAST AS
SOME AREAS EAST OF THE RIVER HAD HEAT INDICES SURPASSING 110 AND WILL
SEE THIS AGAIN SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

THE RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO RETROGRADE LATE MONDAY AS TROUGHING DEVELOPS
OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. THIS WILL BRING A SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE FOR
CONVECTION MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT, WITH THE BEST ODDS
FARTHER EAST IN THE AREA. /DL/

LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)...PERHAPS THE BIGGEST
UNCERTAINTY RIGHT NOW INVOLVES THE CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO THE AREA AROUND THE TUESDAY TIME FRAME.
HAVE GENERALLY FOLLOWED A GUIDANCE BLEND FOR POPS...BUT THERE ARE
SOME INDICATIONS THAT STORMS COULD DEVELOP MORE ROBUSTLY AS EARLY AS
MONDAY NIGHT. IF THAT HAPPENS...THEN THE HEAT FOR TUESDAY COULD BE A
BIT LESSER THAN INDICATED. BUT IT IS MORE LIKELY THAT GREATER STORM
CHANCES WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. BEHIND THE
FRONT...AS WE GO INTO WED/THURSDAY...IT IS LIKELY THAT PRECIPITABLE
WATER WILL FALL OFF TO LESS THAN AN INCH WHILE SURFACE DEWPOINTS DROP
WELL INTO THE 50S. THIS AIRMASS SHOULD FEEL MUCH LESS OPPRESSIVE THAN
EXPERIENCED EARLIER IN THE WEEK EVEN WITH DRY BULB TEMPERATURES
GETTING WELL INTO THE 90S. AS WE GO THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK INTO
NEXT WEEKEND...EXPECT THE HEAT TO REBUILD SOME. /EC/

&&

.AVIATION...VFR FLIGHT CATEGORIES CONTINUE TO PREVAIL AT ALL TAF
SITES THIS AFTERNOON.  ISOLATED CONVECTION HAS BEGUN DEVELOPING OVER
EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI...KMEI AND KHBG.  CEILINGS
AND/OR VISIBILITIES WILL BRIEFLY BE REDUCED TO MVFR/IFR STATUSES IF
CONVECTION IS OBSERVED ON STATION...WITH GUSTY WINDS...FREQUENT
LIGHTNING STRIKES...AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS LIKELY WITH ANY STORMS
THROUGHOUT THE DAY.  CONVECTION WILL WANE IN BOTH COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY BY 00Z THIS EVENING. QUIET CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT
INTO SUNDAY MORNING. /19/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       80 103  80 104 /  11   5   0   9
MERIDIAN      75  99  75 100 /  13   3   0  17
VICKSBURG     79 102  79 104 /   8   5   0   6
HATTIESBURG   80  99  80 101 /  25   5   0  10
NATCHEZ       79  99  79 102 /  11   4   0   7
GREENVILLE    80 102  80 104 /   5   5   0  10
GREENWOOD     77 100  77 102 /   5   5   0  15

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT MONDAY FOR MSZ029>033-038-039-045-
     046-051-052-057-058-066-073-074.

     EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING FROM 7 AM SUNDAY TO 7 PM CDT MONDAY FOR
     MSZ018-019-025>028-034>037-040>044-047>050-053>056-059>065-
     072.

     HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR MSZ018-019-025>028-
     034>037-040>044-047>050-053>056-059>065-072.

LA...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT MONDAY FOR LAZ007>009-015-
     016-023>026.

AR...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT MONDAY FOR ARZ074-075.

&&

DL/EC/19

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
230 PM CDT SAT AUG 8 2015

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026-MSZ018-019-034-040-041-047-
091200-
ASHLEY-CHICOT-MOREHOUSE-WEST CARROLL-EAST CARROLL-RICHLAND-
MADISON-FRANKLIN-CATAHOULA-TENSAS-CONCORDIA-BOLIVAR-SUNFLOWER-
WASHINGTON-ISSAQUENA-SHARKEY-WARREN-
230 PM CDT SAT AUG 8 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
ARKANSAS...NORTHEAST LOUISIANA...NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI...AND WEST
CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...

EXCESSIVE HEAT
THREAT...EXTREME
TIMING...SUNDAY

A STIFLING COMBINATION OF HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL RESULT IN HEAT
INDICES NEAR 115 ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

(WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/GRAPHICAST.PHP?SITE=JAN&GC=2)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...

EXTREME HEAT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE OUTLOOK AREA BOTH MONDAY
AND TUESDAY AFTERNOONS AS HEAT INDICES PEAK NEAR 115. IN ADDITION...
NIGHTTIME LOWS WILL STRUGGLE TO FALL BELOW 80. THIS MEANS THAT THERE
WILL BE LITTLE CHANCE FOR RECOVERY FROM THE DAYTIME HEAT STRESS.

(WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/GRAPHICAST.PHP?SITE=JAN&GC=2)

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY.

MSZ025>033-035>039-042>046-048>066-072>074-091200-
LEFLORE-GRENADA-CARROLL-MONTGOMERY-WEBSTER-CLAY-LOWNDES-CHOCTAW-
OKTIBBEHA-HUMPHREYS-HOLMES-ATTALA-WINSTON-NOXUBEE-YAZOO-MADISON-
LEAKE-NESHOBA-KEMPER-HINDS-RANKIN-SCOTT-NEWTON-LAUDERDALE-
CLAIBORNE-COPIAH-SIMPSON-SMITH-JASPER-CLARKE-JEFFERSON-ADAMS-
FRANKLIN-LINCOLN-LAWRENCE-JEFFERSON DAVIS-COVINGTON-JONES-MARION-
LAMAR-FORREST-
230 PM CDT SAT AUG 8 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
MISSISSIPPI...EAST CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...NORTH CENTRAL
MISSISSIPPI...NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI...AND SOUTH CENTRAL
MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...

EXCESSIVE HEAT
THREAT...SIGNIFICANT
TIMING...SUNDAY

A DANGEROUS COMBINATION OF HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL RESULT IN HEAT
INDICES OF 111 TO 115 SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

(WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/GRAPHICAST.PHP?SITE=JAN&GC=2)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...

DANGEROUSLY HOT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER MUCH OF THE
OUTLOOK AREA AS HEAT INDICES PEAK FROM AROUND 110 BOTH MONDAY AND
TUESDAY AFTERNOONS. IN ADDITION...NIGHTTIME LOWS WILL STRUGGLE TO
FALL BELOW 80. THIS MEANS THAT THERE WILL BE LITTLE CHANCE FOR
RECOVERY FROM THE DAY TIME HEAT STRESS.

(WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/GRAPHICAST.PHP?SITE=JAN&GC=2)

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY.

19

&&

...HAZARD LEGEND...

*EXCESSIVE HEAT*
EXTREME...MAXIMUM HEAT INDEX GREATER THAN 110 DEGREES FOR 3 OR
 MORE DAYS IN A ROW AND/OR AIR TEMPERATURES GREATER THAN 107
 DEGREES.
SIGNIFICANT...MAXIMUM HEAT INDEX GREATER THAN 110 DEGREES
 AND/OR AIR TEMPERATURES GREATER THAN 105 DEGREES.
ELEVATED...MAXIMUM HEAT INDEX 105 TO 110 DEGREES AND/OR AIR
 TEMPERATURES GREATER THAN 103 DEGREES.
LIMITED...MAXIMUM HEAT INDEX NEAR 105 DEGREES AND/OR AIR
 TEMPERATURES 100 TO 103 DEGREES.

...USEFUL WEATHER WEB PAGES (URLS)...

NWS JAN HOME PAGE...
   WWW.WEATHER.GOV/JAN
STAY AWARE, STAY SAFE NWS JAN BRIEFING PAGE...
   WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAN/?N=SAFE
NWS JAN TROPICAL PAGE...
   WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAN/?N=TROPICAL
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER HOME PAGE...
   WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/
FIND NWS JAN ON FACEBOOK...
   WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSJACKSONMS
FOLLOW NWS JAN ON TWITTER...
   @NWSJACKSONMS

   PLEASE CONVERT ALL WEB ADDRESSES TO LOWER CASE BEFORE ENTERING!

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
421 PM CDT SAT AUG 8 2015

LAZ009-MSZ040-082145-
EAST CARROLL LA-ISSAQUENA MS-
421 PM CDT SAT AUG 8 2015

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT CENTRAL EAST CARROLL PARISH IN
NORTHEASTERN LOUISIANA AND WEST CENTRAL ISSAQUENA COUNTIES UNTIL 445
PM CDT...

AT 421 PM CDT...METEOROLOGISTS WERE TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM
OVER LAKE PROVIDENCE...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

THIS STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  TRANSYLVANIA...FITLER AND ALSATIA AROUND 445 PM CDT.

LAT...LON 3279 9133 3290 9119 3268 9096 3266 9096
      3266 9095 3260 9088 3255 9120
TIME...MOT...LOC 2121Z 319DEG 15KT 3279 9121

DB