Special Weather Statement, NWS Jackson, MS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
333 PM CDT SAT JUL 18 2015

.DISCUSSION...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED OVER MAINLY THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA
THIS AFTERNOON AS ANTICIPATED.  MOST CONVECTION SHOULD REMAIN SUB-
SEVERE...BUT A STRAY SEVERE STORM CAN'T BE RULED OUT.  WIND GUSTS OF
40-60 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE MOST INTENSE STORMS.  ACTIVITY
WILL LIKELY INCREASE A BIT IN COVERAGE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS
AND PERSIST THROUGH 00Z AS PROPAGATING OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AID IN
FURTHER DEVELOPMENT.  SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD BEGIN FIZZLING OUT
SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET.  MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL EXIST ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA TONIGHT AS LOWS ONLY SLIP INTO THE MID AND UPPER 70S.

BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL ESSENTIALLY BE CARBON-COPIES OF SATURDAY
AS STUBBORN RIDGING ALOFT AND HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE REMAIN
THE DOMINANT FEATURES OVER THE REGION.  HIGHS WILL AGAIN TOP OUT IN
THE MID AND UPPER 90S WITH PLENTY OF HUMIDITY AROUND AS DEW POINTS
SIT IN THE LOW AND MIDDLE 70S.  HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL AGAIN RANGE
FROM 105-110 BOTH AFTERNOONS.  A HEAT ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT
FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY...AND HAS NOW BEEN EXTENDED IN
TIME TO ENCOMPASS MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH 7 PM CDT.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION IS AGAIN POSSIBLE BOTH SUNDAY AND
MONDAY AFTERNOONS...PRIMARILY OVER SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF
THE AREA. THIS ACTIVITY WON'T LINGER MUCH INTO THE NIGHT TIME
PERIODS BEFORE DISSIPATING.  MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED BOTH
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT AS LOWS FALL INTO THE MID AND UPPER
70S. /19/

TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THE HEAT CONTINUES ON TUESDAY AS TEMPERATURES
REACH THE MID AND UPPER 90S. SOME MIXING MAY BE POSSIBLE WHICH COULD
LOWER DEWPOINTS SOME...BUT WITH THE INCREASING TEMPERATURES
CONDITIONS WILL FEEL RATHER OPPRESSIVE. HEAT INDICES WILL CONTINUE TO
MAX OUT AROUND 105-109 DEGREES ON TUESDAY. SOME AREAS ACROSS THE
SOUTH COULD SEE A LITTLE RELIEF ON TUESDAY AS SOME STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. HOWEVER...MOST LOCATIONS WILL
REMAIN HOT AND PRECIPITATION-FREE. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WARM AS A
BOUNDARY SLOWLY SINKS SOUTH TOWARD THE REGION GOING INTO WEDNESDAY.
EVEN THOUGH THE UPPER RIDGE WILL HAVE MOVED TO THE WEST/BROKEN DOWN
OVER OUR REGION...HEATING WILL INCREASE/REMAIN HIGH AHEAD OF THIS
BOUNDARY. CONFIDENCE IN HEAT PRODUCTS GETS A LITTLE MORE IFFY AFTER
TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE HOT BUT THERE ARE BETTER CHANCES
FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTION THAT MAY PLAY A ROLE IN HOW HOT OR HUMID IT
GETS STARTING WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.
THIS WILL PARTICULARLY BE THE CASE FOR THE EASTERN HALF OF THE REGION
WHERE THE BETTER CHANCES FOR RAIN EXIST. LOCATIONS IN THE DELTA
SHOULD STILL SEE LESS CHANCES FOR RAIN AND CONTINUED HEAT(UPPER 90S
AS OPPOSED TO LOWER TO MID 90S IN THE EAST) GIVEN A LITTLE MORE
INFLUENCE FROM THE NEARBY RIDGE...SO THIS AREA MAY STILL NEED
ELEVATED RISKS AND/OR HEAT ADVISORIES FURTHER INTO THE WEEK.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL PROVIDE LITTLE TO NO RELIEF FROM THE HEAT AND
HUMIDITY WITH READINGS INTO THE MID 70S. /28/

&&

.AVIATION...ALL SITES ARE VFR THIS AFTERNOON AND THESE CONDITIONS
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD FOR MOST SITES. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAY BRING BRIEF MVFR POSSIBLY IFR CONDITIONS TO
GTR/MEI OR HBG THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE THE THUNDERSTORMS DISSIPATE BY
EARLY EVENING. THE WINDS WILL REMAIN GENERALLY LIGHT OUT OF THE WEST
THROUGH THE PERIOD. /15/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       77  98  77  98 /   5  10   3   7
MERIDIAN      75  98  75  98 /   9  18   7  10
VICKSBURG     76  98  76  98 /   3   5   1   6
HATTIESBURG   75  98  76  98 /  11  27   7  28
NATCHEZ       76  95  75  96 /   4  11   3  14
GREENVILLE    77  98  77  99 /   3   2   0   4
GREENWOOD     75  98  76  98 /   3   3   1   4

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT MONDAY FOR MSZ018-019-025>066-
     072>074.

LA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT MONDAY FOR LAZ007>009-015-016-
     023>026.

AR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT MONDAY FOR ARZ074-075.

&&

19/15