Special Weather Statement, NWS Jackson, MS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1051 AM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015

.UPDATE...PW/S LESS THAN 1.5 INCHES IN THE 12Z JAN UA ANALYSIS THIS
MORNING WITH A CAPPING INVERSION JUST ABOVE 850 MB. SHOULD BE HARD TO
GET MUCH...IF ANY...CONVECTION WITH THIS SOUNDING ENVIRONMENT...BUT
HRRR HOURLY SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING MODEST MOISTURE ADVECTION...
MAINLY BELOW 700 MB...WITH PW/S JUMPING TO AT LEAST 1.7 INCHES THIS
AFTERNOON AND THE CAP ERODING AWAY. HRRR IS ALSO SHOWING ISOLATED
CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN TWO THIRDS. HRRR IS
SHOWING THUNDERSTORM GUST POTENTIALS OF 40-45 KNOTS WITH THESE
STORMS AND WET MICROBURST CHECKLIST IS YIELDING A CHANCE CATEGORY.
WILL NOT UPDATE HWO AT PRESENT AS BELIEVE SEVERE WIND THREAT WILL BE
TOO SPARSE.

UPDATED GRIDS TO ADD SLIGHT POPS THIS AFTERNOON. TEMP GRIDS APPEAR
TO BE ON TRACK./26/7/

&&

.AVIATION...MAY ADD SOME VCTS FOR LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING AT
JAN...MEI AND HBG. MODELS SUGGEST SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY
DEVELOP IN THE SOUTH AND MOVE NORTH. OTHERWISE...LOOKING FOR VFR
CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH 9Z WHERE SOME STRATUS MAY MOVE INTO
THE AREA. THERE COULD ALSO BE SOME PATCHY FOG AT THE MEI/HBG. /7/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 447 AM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015/

DISCUSSION...

TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

THE WEATHER OVER THE FORECAST AREA THE NEXT 48 HOURS...WILL BE
DOMINATED BY THE INCREASING PRESENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER
THE REGION. THIS WILL RESULT IN WARMING AFTERNOON HIGHS...MILD
NIGHTS...AND RAIN CHANCES CONFINED TO MAINLY ISOLATED DIURNAL SHOWERS
AND STORMS. GUSTY WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY HAZARD WITH ANY STORMS
THAT INDEED DEVELOP.

HIGHS WILL WARM INTO THE LOWER 90S TODAY...AND RANGE IN THE LOW AND
MIDDLE 90S ON WEDNESDAY.  LOWS BOTH TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL
FALL INTO THE LOW AND MIDDLE 70S.  ALSO OF NOTE...THESE ADVERTISED
HIGH TEMPERATURES...COUPLED WITH AFTERNOON DEW POINTS HOVERING
AROUND 70F...COULD YIELD SOME AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX VALUES AROUND THE
100 DEGREE MARK. /19/

THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

THE THINKING IS RELATIVELY UNCHANGED FROM RECENT FORECASTS - TYPICAL
MID-JULY WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE LONGER RANGE AS A STOUT MID
LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS WESTWARD OVER THE ARKLAMISS. RATHER HOT AND HUMID
CONDITIONS WITH MAINLY ISOLATED AFTN/EVNG TSTMS WILL BE THE GENERAL
RULE. IT LOOKS LIKE FRIDAY MAY SEE A SLIGHT UPTICK IN CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE GIVEN THAT HIGHER PRECIPITABLE WATER AIR (~1.9 IN) WILL
BEGIN TO CIRCULATE AROUND THE RIDGE CENTER AND OVER THE FORECAST
AREA. THIS GREATER MOISTURE MAY COMBINE WITH A WEAKNESS IN THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE TO HELP INCREASE MOISTURE CONVERGENCE/DIURNAL TSTM
CHANCES AND HAVE INCREASED GUIDANCE POPS A BIT. THE MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES ARE LOOKING LESS REMARKABLE COMPARED TO PREVIOUS
GUIDANCE...BUT ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP WOULD HAVE STEEP LOW LEVEL
LAPSE RATES TO WORK WITH AND COULD PRODUCE STRONG WIND GUSTS AS A
RESULT.

OTHERWISE...EXPECT HEAT STRESS TO BE ON THE INCREASE WITH HEAT
INDICES LIKELY REACHING THE 100-105F RANGE EACH DAY...PERHAPS
PEAKING AT AROUND 105 OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
FORECAST HEAT STRESS VALUES ARE NOT QUITE ENOUGH TO WARRANT A MENTION
IN THE HAZARD PRODUCTS AT THIS POINT. /EC/

AVIATION...AFTER A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR VISIBILITIES AND/OR CEILINGS
AS A RESULT OF PATCHY FOG AND/OR PATCHY LOW STRATUS... PRIMARILY AT
KGTR...KMEI...AND KHBG...VFR FLIGHT STATUSES ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
AT ALL SITES BY 14Z THIS MORNING. THESE VFR CATEGORIES WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO TONIGHT. WINDS TODAY WILL BE FROM THE
SOUTHWEST BETWEEN 7-12 KNOTS...AND WILL SUBSIDE TO BETWEEN 3-5 KNOTS
TONIGHT. /19/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       93  73  94  72 /  18  11   4  12
MERIDIAN      93  70  94  71 /  16  12   3  11
VICKSBURG     93  73  93  71 /  16  11   4   8
HATTIESBURG   93  73  94  72 /  18   3   5   8
NATCHEZ       92  74  91  73 /  18   4   8   8
GREENVILLE    91  74  92  72 /  12  14  10   9
GREENWOOD     91  73  92  72 /  16  14   6   9

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
209 PM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026-MSZ018-019-025>066-072>074-
081915-
ASHLEY-CHICOT-MOREHOUSE-WEST CARROLL-EAST CARROLL-RICHLAND-
MADISON-FRANKLIN-CATAHOULA-TENSAS-CONCORDIA-BOLIVAR-SUNFLOWER-
LEFLORE-GRENADA-CARROLL-MONTGOMERY-WEBSTER-CLAY-LOWNDES-CHOCTAW-
OKTIBBEHA-WASHINGTON-HUMPHREYS-HOLMES-ATTALA-WINSTON-NOXUBEE-
ISSAQUENA-SHARKEY-YAZOO-LEAKE-NESHOBA-KEMPER-WARREN-HINDS-RANKIN-
SCOTT-NEWTON-LAUDERDALE-CLAIBORNE-COPIAH-SIMPSON-SMITH-JASPER-
CLARKE-JEFFERSON-ADAMS-LINCOLN-LAWRENCE-JEFFERSON DAVIS-COVINGTON-
JONES-MARION-LAMAR-FORREST-
209 PM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
ARKANSAS...NORTHEAST LOUISIANA...CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...NORTH
CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...AND SOUTH CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT MONDAY.

21

&&

...HAZARD LEGEND...

NO SHORT TERM HAZARDS EXPECTED.

...USEFUL WEATHER WEB PAGES (URLS)...

NWS JAN HOME PAGE...
   WWW.WEATHER.GOV/JAN
STAY AWARE, STAY SAFE NWS JAN BRIEFING PAGE...
   WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAN/?N=SAFE
NWS JAN TROPICAL PAGE...
   WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAN/?N=TROPICAL
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER HOME PAGE...
   WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/
FIND NWS JAN ON FACEBOOK...
   WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSJACKSONMS
FOLLOW NWS JAN ON TWITTER...
   @NWSJACKSONMS

   PLEASE CONVERT ALL WEB ADDRESSES TO LOWER CASE BEFORE ENTERING!

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