Special Weather Statement, NWS Jackson, MS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
405 PM CDT SAT JUN 13 2015

.DISCUSSION... THE UPPER RIDGE CENTER OVER THE SOUTHEAST CONUS IS
OBVIOUSLY TOO FAR EAST THIS AFTERNOON TO LIMIT OUR LOCAL RAIN
CHANCES. CURRENTLY GULF MOISTURE TRANSPORT ON THE WEST SIDE OF THIS
RIDGE IS QUITE IMPRESSIVE FOR MID JUNE AND IS WORKING WITH AMBIENT
DIURNAL INSTABILITY TO PRODUCE CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS MOVING
NORTH ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY. LOW LEVEL SHEAR AND FLOW LEVELS
ARE SUCH THAT SOME STORMS HAVE BEEN PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS WITH A
LIMITED POTENTIAL IN MOST AREAS OF WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 OR 60 MPH.
THIS THREAT WILL CONTINUE TO BE MENTIONED IN THE HWO THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON BUT MAY BE MOST FOCUSED OVER NORTHERN
ZONES AND IN THE ARKLAMISS DELTA WHERE THE AIR MASS HAS NOT BEEN
WORKED OVER ALREADY THIS AFTERNOON. AFTER THIS EVENING EXPECT
OVERNIGHT CONVECTION TO MAINLY BE WEST AND NORTHWEST OF OUR REGION
WITH LOW CLOUDS BUILDING TOWARD DAWN.

THE SYNOPTIC SITUATION FOR TOMORROW LOOKS SIMILAR TO TODAY EXCEPT
FOR THE FACT THAT THE SOUTHEAST CONUS RIDGE WILL BE TRYING TO EXERT
ITS INFLUENCE A LITTLE MORE OVER OUR REGION. EVEN SO...MODEL
CONSENSUS STILL EXPECTS SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW AND MOISTURE
TRANSPORT INTO OUR REGION TO BE RELATIVELY STOUT...AND THIS ALONE
SHOULD ENSURE A FAIR AMOUNT OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS
CONSIDERING A RELATIVE LACK OF THERMAL CAPPING. TODAY CONVECTION HAS
BEEN PRETTY WIDESPREAD IN A HOMOGENEOUS FASHION BUT FOR TOMORROW THE
MORE NUMEROUS STORMS WILL LIKELY BE FOCUSED WEST OF THE I-55
CORRIDOR. LIKE TODAY...SOME GUSTY STORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT
TOMORROW BUT IT WILL LIKELY TAKE UNTIL LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY
TOMORROW TO MAKE AN INFORMED DECISION ON WHETHER LOW LEVEL SHEAR /
INSTABILITY COMBOS WILL BE ENOUGH TO GET MORE THAN A STRAY SEVERE
STORM. ERGO...THE HWO FOR TOMORROW LEFT CLEAR FOR NOW.

GOING INTO NEXT WORK WEEK ATTENTION WILL LIKELY BE FOCUSED ON THE
WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO WHERE MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE NOW IN RATHER GOOD
AGREEMENT FOR A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE TO TAKE SHAPE AND ADVANCE
TOWARD THE SE TX COAST. MOISTURE TRANSPORT ON THE EAST SIDE OF THIS
SYSTEM WILL MOST LIKELY BE FOCUSED WEST OF OUR REGION AND THEREFORE
SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES SHOULD BECOME MORE AND MORE CONFINED TO
WESTERN ZONES AS THE UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES NOSING IN FROM THE EAST.
OF COURSE HEAT WILL BUILD A LITTLE (ESPECIALLY IN EASTERN HALF OF
ZONES) IF THE AFTERNOON SHOWER AND STORM ACTIVITY DOES DECREASE.

IT IS WORTH MENTIONING THAT A FEW MODEL SOLUTIONS HAVE THE
AFOREMENTIONED TROPICAL DISTURBANCE COMING INLAND INTO SE TX AND
THEN CURVING AROUND THE SOUTHEAST RIDGE....AND THEN REMAINING AN
INTACT ENTITY CROSSING EAST THROUGH THE MIDSOUTH. THIS SCENARIO
COULD RAMP BACK UP RAIN CHANCES FOR PORTIONS OF OUR REGION BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK ALTHOUGH IT IS A LITTLE EARLY TO HAVE MUCH
CONFIDENCE IN EVENTUAL OUTCOMES. /BB/

&&

.AVIATION...AFTER STARTING OFF THE MORNING WITH FAIRLY WIDESPREAD
IFR CONDITIONS DUE TO STRATUS...START OF DAYTIME MIXING HAS ALLOWED
CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE TO MVFR OR VFR MOST LOCATIONS. MAIN FOCUS FOR
THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY TSRA WITH PERIODS OF
MVFR/IFR CIGS POSSIBLE DUE TO VERY HIGH MOISTURE LEVELS. HRRR RUNS
IMPLY FAIRLY WIDESPREAD COVERAGE OF TSRA THIS AFTERNOON AS
MODERATELY STRONG LOW LEVEL FLOW ALLOWS STORMS TO PROPAGATE AND HAVE
FAIRLY HIGH COVERAGE. HENCE HAVE AT LEAST TEMPO TSRA MOST SITES AND
WILL AMD AS NEEDED TO SHOW CATEGORICAL IMPACTS BASED ON RADAR
TRENDS. EXPECT REPEAT OF WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS LATER TONIGHT DUE
TO STRATUS WITH FAIRLY SIMILAR SETUP TO WHAT WAS OBSERVED THIS
MORNING.   /AEG/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       71  89  72  90 /  27  37  13  28
MERIDIAN      69  89  69  91 /  19  22  10  16
VICKSBURG     71  89  72  90 /  34  51  18  42
HATTIESBURG   72  90  71  90 /  28  43  12  37
NATCHEZ       72  86  73  88 /  36  62  19  47
GREENVILLE    72  89  72  90 /  35  51  27  31
GREENWOOD     72  90  71  91 /  29  33  19  18

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

BB/AEG/17

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