Special Weather Statement, NWS Jackson, MS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
344 AM CDT TUE JUN 9 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AFTER A BIT OF A LULL
IN ACTIVITY LAST NIGHT, AN MCS DEVELOPED NEAR THE MS/TN BORDER AND
HAS BEEN PROPAGATING SOUTHWARD, ANCHORED BY AN MCV NEAR THE GOLDEN
TRIANGLE AS OF 08Z. OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS, THIS COMPLEX HAS BEEN
PRIMARILY OUTFLOW DOMINANT, WITH THE STRONGEST CORES NOTED ON RADAR
BEHIND THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. NEVERTHELESS, SOME WIND GUSTS ARE STILL
REACHING THE GROUND, AS PER AWOS GUST OBS IN THE 20-30 KT RANGE.

HIGH-RES GUIDANCE HAS GENERALLY HAD A VERY POOR HANDLE ON THE
CURRENT CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY, BUT WITH MLCAPES IN THE 1000-2000 J/KG
PER LATEST SPC MESOANALYSIS, IT SEEMS PLAUSIBLE FOR THIS COMPLEX TO
CONTINUE INTO AT LEAST PART OF THE MORNING. THOUGH AMBIENT DEEP
LAYER SHEAR IS BECOMING LESS FAVORABLE FOR POTENT UPDRAFTS AND THE
THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL BECOME LESS LIKELY WITH TIME.

THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH AND SHORTWAVE WILL BE PULLING AWAY FROM THE
AREA TODAY AND THE SURFACE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO WASH OUT WITH THE
LOSS OF UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT. NEVERTHELESS, THERE WILL STILL BE
LINGERING OUTFLOW FROM THIS AM'S CONVECTION, A RATHER MOIST AIRMASS,
AND MODERATE INSTABILITY (ASSUMING CLOUD DEBRIS DOESN'T INTERRUPT
INSOLATION THROUGH THE ENTIRE DAY). THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE DAY INTO THE EVENING, ESPECIALLY ALONG AND
SOUTH OF I-20. THE SETUP ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE SIMILAR, WITH SUBTLE
UPPER TROUGHING OVER THE REGION AND RELATIVELY WEAK DISTURBANCES
PASSING THROUGH. ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE MORE DIURNAL IN NATURE,
WITH A MORE SUBSTANTIAL DROPOFF IN ACTIVITY HEADING INTO WED NIGHT.
/DL/

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
PERIOD DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE AS PW VALUES WILL BE
NEAR 2 INCHES. LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE THE MOIST FEED
WITH LOW TO MID 70S DEWPOINTS. MID LEVEL FLOW PATTERN WILL BE LIGHT
AND DISORGANIZED WITH A WEAK LOW OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO.

WITH THIS SETUP EXPECT A GREATER THAN NORMAL COVERAGE OF DIURNALLY
DRIVEN CONVECTION TO DOMINATE THROUGH THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PORTION OF
THIS TIME PERIOD. INCREASED MOISTURE/RAINFALL WILL ALSO MAKE FOR
NARROW DIURNAL TEMP RANGES WITH MINS IN THE LOWER 70S AND HIGHS NEAR
90 AND AN OVERALL VERY MUGGY FEEL TO THE AIR. WEAK STEERING ALOFT
WILL ALLOW FOR SLOW STORM MOVEMENTS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

BY LATE WEEKEND INTO MONDAY...INCREASED RIDGING FROM THE EAST WILL
BEGIN DRYING/WARMING THE COLUMN. THUS...EXPECT CONVECTIVE COVERAGE
TO BEGIN LESSENING IN THE EAST AND MAX TEMPS TO BE A FEW DEGREES
WARMER./26/

&&

.AVIATION...A LINE OF SHRA/TSRA WILL PUSH SOUTHWARD FROM GLH/GWO/GTR
TOWARD THE HKS/JAN/MEI THIS MORNING. BRIEF VISBY/CIG REDUCTIONS WILL
OCCUR IN HEAVIER SHOWERS. PATCHY AREAS OF GROUND FOG AND LOW CIGS
CANNOT BE RULED OUT AT A FEW SITES TOWARD DAYBREAK THIS MORNING, BUT
ANY FLIGHT CATEGORY REDUCTIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BRIEF. LATER ON
TODAY...ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
DAY, WITH THE GREATEST PROBABILITY FOR CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY AT
TERMINALS ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-20. OUTSIDE OF THE STORMS, VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL. /DL/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       89  71  89  70 /  55  37  36  19
MERIDIAN      87  68  88  69 /  62  38  41  23
VICKSBURG     90  70  90  70 /  55  29  32  15
HATTIESBURG   88  70  88  71 /  68  41  52  35
NATCHEZ       88  72  88  70 /  55  34  42  22
GREENVILLE    92  71  92  69 /  31  15  16  10
GREENWOOD     89  70  90  69 /  36  17  22  11

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

DL/26/DL

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
141 PM CDT TUE JUN 9 2015

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026-MSZ018-019-025>028-034>036-
040>043-047-048-053-054-059>062-101845-
ASHLEY-CHICOT-MOREHOUSE-WEST CARROLL-EAST CARROLL-RICHLAND-
MADISON-FRANKLIN-CATAHOULA-TENSAS-CONCORDIA-BOLIVAR-SUNFLOWER-
LEFLORE-GRENADA-CARROLL-MONTGOMERY-WASHINGTON-HUMPHREYS-HOLMES-
ISSAQUENA-SHARKEY-YAZOO-WARREN-HINDS-CLAIBORNE-COPIAH-JEFFERSON-
ADAMS-LINCOLN-
141 PM CDT TUE JUN 9 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
ARKANSAS...NORTHEAST LOUISIANA...CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...NORTH
CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI...SOUTH CENTRAL
MISSISSIPPI...SOUTHWEST MISSISSIPPI...AND WEST CENTRAL
MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THREAT...LIMITED
TIMING...THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON

FLOODING
THREAT...LIMITED
TIMING...THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS HAVE BECOME FAVORABLE FOR A FEW STORMS TO
POTENTIALLY BECOME SEVERE...WITH DAMAGING WINDS TO 60 MPH THE
PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER RISK. LOCALIZED FLOODING DUE TO TRAINING OF
STORMS OVER THE SAME AREAS IS ALSO POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE REGION REMAINDER
OF THE AFTERNOON.

MSZ029>033-037>039-044>046-049>052-055>058-063>066-072>074-101845-
WEBSTER-CLAY-LOWNDES-CHOCTAW-OKTIBBEHA-ATTALA-WINSTON-NOXUBEE-
LEAKE-NESHOBA-KEMPER-RANKIN-SCOTT-NEWTON-LAUDERDALE-SIMPSON-SMITH-
JASPER-CLARKE-LAWRENCE-JEFFERSON DAVIS-COVINGTON-JONES-MARION-
LAMAR-FORREST-
141 PM CDT TUE JUN 9 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
MISSISSIPPI...EAST CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...NORTH CENTRAL
MISSISSIPPI...NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI...SOUTH CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...
AND SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT MONDAY.

21

&&

...HAZARD LEGEND...

*SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS*
EXTREME...CONFIDENT IN SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH WIND GUSTS OF
 75 MPH OR GREATER AND/OR 2 INCH DIAMETER OR LARGER HAIL.
SIGNIFICANT...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE WITH WIND GUSTS OF
 75 MPH OR GREATER AND/OR 2 INCH DIAMETER OR LARGER HAIL.
ELEVATED...CONFIDENT IN SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH WINDS GUSTS OF
 60 MPH OR GREATER AND/OR 1 INCH DIAMETER OR LARGER HAIL.
LIMITED...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE WITH WIND GUSTS OF 60
 MPH OR GREATER AND/OR 1 INCH DIAMETER OR LARGER HAIL.

*FLOODING*
EXTREME...CONFIDENT IN SIGNIFICANT FLOODING.
SIGNIFICANT...SIGNIFICANT FLOODING POSSIBLE.
ELEVATED...CONFIDENT IN FLOODING.
LIMITED...FLOODING POSSIBLE.

...USEFUL WEATHER WEB PAGES (URLS)...

NWS JAN HOME PAGE...
   WWW.WEATHER.GOV/JAN
STAY AWARE, STAY SAFE NWS JAN BRIEFING PAGE...
   WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAN/?N=SAFE
NWS JAN TROPICAL PAGE...
   WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAN/?N=TROPICAL
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER HOME PAGE...
   WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/
FIND NWS JAN ON FACEBOOK...
   WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSJACKSONMS
FOLLOW NWS JAN ON TWITTER...
   @NWSJACKSONMS

...ADDITIONAL URLS FOR SEVERE WEATHER ISSUES...

STORM PREDICTION CENTER (SPC)...
   WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/
SPC...MESO ANALYSIS...
   WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/EXPER/MESOANALYSIS/NEW/#
SPC...DAY 1 THROUGH 3 OUTLOOKS...
   WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/PRODUCTS/OUTLOOK/
SPC...STORM REPORTS...
   WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/CLIMO/
NWS JAN CURRENT SVR/TOR WATCHES...
   WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/RTIMAGES/JAN/WATCH/TOASVA.PNG

   PLEASE CONVERT ALL WEB ADDRESSES TO LOWER CASE BEFORE ENTERING!

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
143 PM CDT TUE JUN 09 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0700 AM     FLASH FLOOD      NEW HEBRON              31.73N 89.98W
06/09/2015                   LAWRENCE           MS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            BUSINESSES FLOODED IN NEW HEBRON

&&

GERARD

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
149 PM CDT TUE JUN 9 2015

MSZ042-043-048-091915-
YAZOO MS-HINDS MS-MADISON MS-
149 PM CDT TUE JUN 9 2015

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHWESTERN MADISON...SOUTH
CENTRAL YAZOO AND NORTH CENTRAL HINDS COUNTIES UNTIL 215 PM CDT...

AT 149 PM CDT...METEOROLOGISTS WERE TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM
NEAR FLORA...OR 16 MILES NORTH OF CLINTON...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 15
MPH.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

THIS STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  FLORA AROUND 200 PM CDT.
  POCAHONTAS AROUND 215 PM CDT.

OTHER LOCATIONS IMPACTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE BENTONIA.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 15 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

&&

LAT...LON 3260 9049 3270 9027 3243 9021 3244 9050
TIME...MOT...LOC 1849Z 334DEG 13KT 3258 9036

CME