Special Weather Statement, NWS Jackson, MS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
315 PM CDT SAT MAY 16 2015

.DISCUSSION...CONVECTION IS PEPPERED ABOUT OVER THE FORECAST AREA
SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY...BUT NOT YET AS WIDESPREAD. CONVECTION LOOKS TO
BEHAVE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY WITH COVERAGE CONTINUING TO INCREASE
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND A SLOW DECREASE DURING THE EVENING.

MEANWHILE...MID/UPPER LEVEL PATTERN OVER THE CONUS CHARACTERIZED BY
BROAD TROF IN THE WEST AND RIDGE IN THE EAST. THIS IS RESULTING IN
DEEP LAYERED S/SW FLOW WITH MULTIPLE WEAK SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN THE
FLOW. THESE SHORTWAVES HAVE BEEN COMBINING WITH THE DEEP MOISTURE IN
PLACE (PW VALUES ~ 1.75 IN) AND DAYTIME HEATING FOR SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING.
THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE CASE OVER THE CWA THROUGH MONDAY BEFORE
ANY CHANGES BECOME NOTEWORTHY.

CONVECTION SHOULD CONTINUE TO BEHAVE AND REMAIN SUB-SEVERE FOR THE
MOST PART. LAPSE RATES REMAIN FEEBLE WITH VERTICAL TOTALS NEAR 25.
HRRR SHOWING SOME POSSIBILITY OF 0-3KM SHEAR VECTORS BECOMING
ORTHOGANAL TO CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS...BUT SHEAR MAGNITUDES AROUND 20
KNOTS DO NOT APPEAR HIGH ENOUGH TO PROMOTE MUCH OF A SEVERE WIND
THREAT. DCAPES ALSO WILL REMAIN BELOW 500 J/KG.

BY SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY...TROF IN THE WEST LOOKS TO LIFT OUT ALLOWING
MID LEVEL RIDGING ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO. EXPECT PW VALUES TO
DROP SOMEWHAT AS MEAN LAYERED W/NW FLOW BECOMES DOMINANT OVER
THE AREA...RESULTING IN LESS CONVECTIVE COVERAGE. THIS FLOW PATTERN
WILL ALLOW A WEAK COLD FRONT TO MOVE INTO THE AREA BY TUESDAY. WHAT
CONVECTION THAT DOES DEVELOP SHOULD BE MOST FOCUSED ALONG THIS
BOUNDARY.

FURTHER RIDGING OVER THE MS VALLEY WILL PROMOTE WARMING IN THE
COLUMN AND LESS CONVECTION THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK./26/

&&

.AVIATION...UNDER SOUTHERLY MOIST FLOW VFR CONDITIONS WERE NOTED
OUTSIDE OF SHOWER AREAS. EXPECT MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE
ACROSS THE REGION WHERE TSRA IS AROUND THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING.
SHRA/TSRA WILL DIMINISH EARLY THIS EVNG WITH A FEW SHRA LINGERING
OVERNIGHT. LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGEST WIDESPREAD IFR/MVFR STRATUS WILL
DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MRNG. /17/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       71  87  71  86 /  25  48  21  53
MERIDIAN      69  86  68  86 /  31  38  33  34
VICKSBURG     72  88  72  85 /  22  46  25  65
HATTIESBURG   71  87  71  88 /  38  41  16  51
NATCHEZ       72  87  72  85 /  24  41  20  63
GREENVILLE    71  86  71  82 /  32  58  36  71
GREENWOOD     70  87  71  83 /  36  55  34  61

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

26/17

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
204 PM CDT SAT MAY 16 2015

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026-MSZ018-019-025>066-072>074-
171915-
ASHLEY-CHICOT-MOREHOUSE-WEST CARROLL-EAST CARROLL-RICHLAND-
MADISON-FRANKLIN-CATAHOULA-TENSAS-CONCORDIA-BOLIVAR-SUNFLOWER-
LEFLORE-GRENADA-CARROLL-MONTGOMERY-WEBSTER-CLAY-LOWNDES-CHOCTAW-
OKTIBBEHA-WASHINGTON-HUMPHREYS-HOLMES-ATTALA-WINSTON-NOXUBEE-
ISSAQUENA-SHARKEY-YAZOO-LEAKE-NESHOBA-KEMPER-WARREN-HINDS-RANKIN-
SCOTT-NEWTON-LAUDERDALE-CLAIBORNE-COPIAH-SIMPSON-SMITH-JASPER-
CLARKE-JEFFERSON-ADAMS-LINCOLN-LAWRENCE-JEFFERSON DAVIS-COVINGTON-
JONES-MARION-LAMAR-FORREST-
204 PM CDT SAT MAY 16 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
ARKANSAS...NORTHEAST LOUISIANA...CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...NORTH
CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...AND SOUTH CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND SUNDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY.

21

&&

...HAZARD LEGEND...

NO SHORT TERM HAZARDS EXPECTED.

...USEFUL WEATHER WEB PAGES (URLS)...

NWS JAN HOME PAGE...
   WWW.WEATHER.GOV/JAN
STAY AWARE, STAY SAFE NWS JAN BRIEFING PAGE...
   WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAN/?N=SAFE
FIND NWS JAN ON FACEBOOK...
   WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSJACKSONMS
FOLLOW NWS JAN ON TWITTER...
   @NWSJACKSONMS

   PLEASE CONVERT ALL WEB ADDRESSES TO LOWER CASE BEFORE ENTERING!

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