Alert archive / Mississippi / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2015

Severe Thunderstorm Warning 58, NWS Jackson, MS

April 15, 2015Forrest County, Lamar County, Mississippi

NWS Jackson, MS issued this severe thunderstorm warning at Apr 15, 2015, 6:50 PM CDT for Forrest County, Lamar County, Mississippi. It was in force for 40 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The counties it named.

The facts

Issued: Apr 15, 2015, 6:50 PM CDT (23:50 UTC)
Expired: Apr 15, 2015, 7:30 PM CDT
In force: 40 min
Issued by: NWS Jackson, MS
Area: Storm-based polygon
Hail: 1.0 in
Wind: 60.0 mph

Counties Forrest County, MS, Lamar County, MS

The radar

The Mobile radar (KMOB), 123 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 23:50 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Slidell Radar S, LA (KSIL), launched 12:00Z, 11.8 hours before the alert went out and 110 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 455 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -60 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 598 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 35 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 83 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 83 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.8

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Jackson, MS wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at Apr 15, 3:55 PM CDT, 2 hours 55 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Apr 15, 3:55 PM CDT, 2 hours 55 minutes before

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
355 PM CDT WED APR 15 2015

.DISCUSSION...COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/STORMS LOOK TO BE ISOLATED OVERNIGHT
AS THE SFC LOW TRACKS TO THE NORTHEAST. MOISTURE WILL BE A BIT
HIGHER THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AS PW VALUES RETURN TO NEAR 1.8
INCHES. THIS...ALONG WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND WEAK
DISTURBANCES...WILL BRING BETTER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS TO
THE REGION ESPECIALLY FOR SOUTHERN PORTIONS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE
IN THE 60S WITH HIGHS THURSDAY MAINLY IN THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80.

FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE UNSETTLED WET PATTERN WITH THE ACTIVE
SOUTHERN JETSTREAM WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY. THE UPPER JET
WILL CONTINUE TO AID IN PROVIDING PERIODS OF LIFT AS A SERIES OF
DISTURBANCES TRACK THROUGH THE SOUTHERN STREAM. MODELS CONTINUE TO
HAVE ISSUES WITH TRACKING THE HIGHEST RAINFALL POTENTIAL AREAS WITH
MESO-SCALE FEATURES INVOLVED. THUS TIMING AND DETAILS REMAIN TOUGH
TO NAIL DOWN THROUGH THE UNSETTLED PERIOD. ANOMALOUS MOISTURE WILL
CONTINUE UNTIL SATURDAY NIGHT. EXPECT THE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL RATES...WHICH WILL BRING SOME
RISK OF FLASH FLOODING. AN ADDITIONAL 1-3 INCHES APPEARS POSSIBLE
FRI WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. A TREND THAT DOES SEEM A
BIT MORE CLEAR IS THAT THE S 2/3RDS OF THE CWA HAS THE BEST
POTENTIAL TO SEE THE HIGHER RAIN TOTALS.

FOR THE SUN-WED PERIODS...LOOK FOR DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER TO BE
THE TREND AS SOME GUIDANCE PUSHES THE FRONT THROUGH THE REGION AS
THE NORTHERN STREAM FINALLY PHASES. /27/28/17/CE/

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE
EVENING. VCTS WILL CONTINUE IN THE HBG AREA UNTIL AROUND 16/02Z.
MVFR/IFR CEILINGS WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA ONCE AGAIN AFTER 16/06Z.
VSBYS WILL MOSTLY STAY IN THE MVFR CATEGORY...BUT LIFR VSBYS IN FOG
ARE MORE PROBABLE OVER HBG HEADING TOWARD 16/12Z. CONDITIONS WILL
IMPROVE TO MVFR BY 16/15Z./26/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       64  80  64  77 /  37  65  58  69
MERIDIAN      63  78  64  77 /  49  65  57  71
VICKSBURG     62  81  65  78 /  27  57  58  65
HATTIESBURG   66  79  65  79 /  38  74  57  70
NATCHEZ       63  79  65  78 /  29  70  57  68
GREENVILLE    60  79  65  77 /  27  23  59  60
GREENWOOD     62  81  64  78 /  49  33  52  63

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

Hazardous weather outlook, Apr 15, 5:55 PM CDT, 55 minutes before

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
555 PM CDT WED APR 15 2015

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026-MSZ018-019-025>054-059>062-
162300-
ASHLEY-CHICOT-MOREHOUSE-WEST CARROLL-EAST CARROLL-RICHLAND-
MADISON-FRANKLIN-CATAHOULA-TENSAS-CONCORDIA-BOLIVAR-SUNFLOWER-
LEFLORE-GRENADA-CARROLL-MONTGOMERY-WEBSTER-CLAY-LOWNDES-CHOCTAW-
OKTIBBEHA-WASHINGTON-HUMPHREYS-HOLMES-ATTALA-WINSTON-NOXUBEE-
ISSAQUENA-SHARKEY-YAZOO-LEAKE-NESHOBA-KEMPER-WARREN-HINDS-RANKIN-
SCOTT-NEWTON-LAUDERDALE-CLAIBORNE-COPIAH-JEFFERSON-ADAMS-LINCOLN-
555 PM CDT WED APR 15 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
ARKANSAS...NORTHEAST LOUISIANA...CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...NORTH
CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...SOUTH CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...AND SOUTHWEST
MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND THURSDAY

FLOODING
THREAT...LIMITED
TIMING...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION THROUGH THURSDAY. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE
WITH THESE STORMS AS THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS EXTREMELY MOIST. THE
ABSENCE OF LOW LEVEL FOCUSING MECHANISMS WILL LIMIT FLOODING
POSSIBILITIES TO LOCALIZED AREAS.

(WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/GRAPHICAST.PHP?SITE=JAN&GC=1)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY

THE WET WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY WHERE MORE
ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAINFALL WILL OCCUR. THESE RAINS WILL CONTINUE TO
PRESENT RUNOFF PROBLEMS AND ALLOW THE LOCALIZED FLOODING POTENTIAL TO
CONTINUE.

(WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/GRAPHICAST.PHP?SITE=JAN&GC=1)

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY.

MSZ055>058-063>066-072>074-162300-
SIMPSON-SMITH-JASPER-CLARKE-LAWRENCE-JEFFERSON DAVIS-COVINGTON-
JONES-MARION-LAMAR-FORREST-
555 PM CDT WED APR 15 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
MISSISSIPPI...EAST CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...SOUTH CENTRAL
MISSISSIPPI...AND SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND THURSDAY

FLOODING
THREAT...LIMITED
TIMING...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THREAT...LIMITED
TIMING...THIS EVENING

ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS AND HAIL POTENTIALLY OVER THE SIZE OF QUARTERS WILL BE POSSIBLE
THIS EVENING ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN
MISSISSIPPI.

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION THROUGH THURSDAY. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE
WITH THESE STORMS AS THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS EXTREMELY MOIST. THE
ABSENCE OF LOW LEVEL FOCUSING MECHANISMS WILL LIMIT FLOODING
POSSIBILITIES TO LOCALIZED AREAS.

(WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/GRAPHICAST.PHP?SITE=JAN&GC=1)
(WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/GRAPHICAST.PHP?SITE=JAN&GC=2)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY

THE WET WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY WHERE MORE
ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAINFALL WILL OCCUR. THESE RAINS WILL CONTINUE TO
PRESENT RUNOFF PROBLEMS AND ALLOW THE LOCALIZED FLOODING POTENTIAL TO
CONTINUE.

(WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/GRAPHICAST.PHP?SITE=JAN&GC=1)

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE REGION TONIGHT.

50

&&

...HAZARD LEGEND...

*FLOODING*
EXTREME...CONFIDENT IN SIGNIFICANT FLOODING.
SIGNIFICANT...SIGNIFICANT FLOODING POSSIBLE.
ELEVATED...CONFIDENT IN FLOODING.
LIMITED...FLOODING POSSIBLE.

*SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS*
EXTREME...CONFIDENT IN SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH WIND GUSTS OF
 75 MPH OR GREATER AND/OR 2 INCH DIAMETER OR LARGER HAIL.
SIGNIFICANT...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE WITH WIND GUSTS OF
 75 MPH OR GREATER AND/OR 2 INCH DIAMETER OR LARGER HAIL.
ELEVATED...CONFIDENT IN SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH WINDS GUSTS OF
 60 MPH OR GREATER AND/OR 1 INCH DIAMETER OR LARGER HAIL.
LIMITED...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE WITH WIND GUSTS OF 60
 MPH OR GREATER AND/OR 1 INCH DIAMETER OR LARGER HAIL.

...USEFUL WEATHER WEB PAGES (URLS)...

NWS JAN HOME PAGE...
   WWW.WEATHER.GOV/JAN
STAY AWARE, STAY SAFE NWS JAN BRIEFING PAGE...
   WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAN/?N=SAFE
FIND NWS JAN ON FACEBOOK...
   WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSJACKSONMS
FOLLOW NWS JAN ON TWITTER...
   @NWSJACKSONMS

...ADDITIONAL URLS FOR SEVERE WEATHER ISSUES...

STORM PREDICTION CENTER (SPC)...
   WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/
SPC...MESO ANALYSIS...
   WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/EXPER/MESOANALYSIS/NEW/#
SPC...DAY 1 THROUGH 3 OUTLOOKS...
   WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/PRODUCTS/OUTLOOK/
SPC...STORM REPORTS...
   WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/CLIMO/
NWS JAN CURRENT SVR/TOR WATCHES...
   WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/RTIMAGES/JAN/WATCH/TOASVA.PNG

   PLEASE CONVERT ALL WEB ADDRESSES TO LOWER CASE BEFORE ENTERING!

In the hours before

Special weather statement, Apr 15, 5:05 PM CDT, 1 hour 45 minutes before

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
505 PM CDT WED APR 15 2015

MSZ073-152230-
LAMAR MS-
505 PM CDT WED APR 15 2015

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHERN LAMAR COUNTY UNTIL 530
PM CDT...

AT 503 PM CDT...METEOROLOGISTS WERE TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM
BETWEEN BAXTERVILLE AND LUMBERTON...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

DIME SIZE HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

THIS STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  PURVIS AROUND 525 PM CDT.

LAT...LON 3105 8958 3124 8956 3117 8935 3116 8935
      3101 8947
TIME...MOT...LOC 2203Z 210DEG 18KT 3108 8950

DL

Local storm report, Apr 15, 5:36 PM CDT, 1 hour 14 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
536 PM CDT WED APR 15 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0532 PM     HAIL             1 NNW PURVIS            31.16N 89.42W
04/15/2015  E1.00 INCH       LAMAR              MS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            REPORT OF QUARTER SIZE HAIL ON HWY 589 AND PURVIS OLOH
            ROAD.

&&

DCOX

Local storm report, Apr 15, 5:41 PM CDT, 1 hour 9 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
541 PM CDT WED APR 15 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0524 PM     HAIL             4 W PURVIS              31.14N 89.47W
04/15/2015  E2.00 INCH       LAMAR              MS   PUBLIC

            GOLFBALL TO HEN EGG SIZE HAIL ON PURVIS-COLUMBIA ROAD.
            REPORT AND PICTURE RELAYED VIA SOCIAL MEDIA.

&&

DCOX

Special weather statement, Apr 15, 5:55 PM CDT, 55 minutes before

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
555 PM CDT WED APR 15 2015

MSZ073-074-152330-
FORREST MS-LAMAR MS-
555 PM CDT WED APR 15 2015

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT THE WEST SIDE OF THE
HATTIESBURG METRO AREA UNTIL 630 PM CDT...

AT 554 PM CDT...METEOROLOGISTS WERE TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM
NEAR OAK GROVE...MOVING NORTH AT 15 MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

THIS STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  HATTIESBURG AND OAK GROVE AROUND 600 PM CDT.
  WEST HATTIESBURG AROUND 610 PM CDT.

LAT...LON 3122 8946 3139 8946 3135 8927 3126 8932
      3120 8936
TIME...MOT...LOC 2254Z 200DEG 14KT 3126 8940

DL

Special weather statement, Apr 15, 6:26 PM CDT, 24 minutes before

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
626 PM CDT WED APR 15 2015

MSZ073-074-160000-
FORREST MS-LAMAR MS-
626 PM CDT WED APR 15 2015

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTH CENTRAL FORREST AND
SOUTHEASTERN LAMAR COUNTIES UNTIL 700 PM CDT...

AT 625 PM CDT...METEOROLOGISTS WERE TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM
OVER LUMBERTON...OR 12 MILES NORTHEAST OF POPLARVILLE...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

DIME SIZE HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

THIS STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  ROCK HILL AROUND 700 PM CDT.

LAT...LON 3100 8934 3100 8935 3101 8935 3101 8942
      3098 8943 3098 8947 3100 8948 3100 8950
      3101 8950 3101 8953 3117 8951 3109 8925
      3098 8934
TIME...MOT...LOC 2325Z 205DEG 13KT 3099 8944

DL

Special weather statement, Apr 15, 6:27 PM CDT, 23 minutes before

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
627 PM CDT WED APR 15 2015

MSZ066-074-160000-
FORREST MS-JONES MS-
627 PM CDT WED APR 15 2015

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTH CENTRAL FORREST AND
SOUTHWESTERN JONES COUNTIES UNTIL 700 PM CDT...

AT 627 PM CDT...METEOROLOGISTS WERE TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM
NEAR EASTABUCHIE...OR NEAR PETAL...MOVING NORTH AT 20 MPH.

DIME SIZE HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

THIS STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  EASTABUCHIE AROUND 635 PM CDT.
  MOSELLE AROUND 650 PM CDT.

LAT...LON 3138 8940 3156 8936 3150 8911 3135 8922
TIME...MOT...LOC 2327Z 202DEG 16KT 3141 8930

DL

The office that day

Everything else NWS Jackson, MS issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Apr 15, 3:26 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	JAN	Forrest	34 min
Apr 15, 5:05 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	JAN	Lamar	25 min
Apr 15, 5:15 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	JAN	Lamar	45 min
Apr 15, 5:55 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	JAN	Forrest	35 min
Apr 15, 6:26 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	JAN	Lamar	34 min
Apr 15, 6:27 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	JAN	Jones	33 min
Apr 15, 6:36 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	JAN	Lawrence	39 min

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in Mississippi, 2015 Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2015

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.