Severe Thunderstorm Warning 400, NWS Jackson, MS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
455 PM CST THU DEC 24 2015

.DISCUSSION... DEALING WITH A POTENT LEFT-MOVING SUPERCELL COMING UP
THROUGH THE JACKSON METRO RIGHT AT THE MOMENT...AND THE PRESENCE OF
THIS STORM BRINGS TO LIGHT THE VOLATILE COMBINATION OF INSTABILITY
AND WIND SHEAR CURRENTLY IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION. THINKING IS
THAT A STORM OF THIS STRENGTH SHOULD NOT BE THE RULE THROUGH THE
NEXT 24 HOURS...BUT SOME ADDITIONAL SEVERE STORMS WILL STILL BE
POSSIBLE (MAINLY THROUGH THIS EVENING IN CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ZONES
AND THEN LATER TONIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW IN NORTHERN ZONES). ACTIVITY
THROUGH MOST OF TODAY HAS BEEN TRAINING ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN MS NEAR
A STALLED MOISTURE ADVECTION BOUNDARY...BUT NOW THE BACKING OF LOW
LEVEL FLOW IS STARTING THE TRANSITION WHICH SHOULD CULMINATE LATER
TONIGHT IN TRAINING SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS NORTHERN ZONES (AND
ESPECIALLY THE ARKLAMISS DELTA). OF COURSE WHERE STORMS START TO
TRAIN THE ANOMALOUSLY-HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT OF THE AIR MASS WILL
LEND TO INCREASED FLOODING POTENTIAL...AND THIS WAS MENTIONED IN THE
HWO.

REGARDING THE SEVERE WEATHER ENVIRONMENT...THE ATMOSPHERE IS NOT SET
UP WELL TO PRODUCE TORNADOES BECAUSE NEEDED LOW LEVEL HELICITY IS
MARGINAL AT BEST. THAT SAID...THERE IS ENOUGH DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND
INSTABILITY TO SPAWN SUPERCELLS AND IT IS HARD TO COMPLETELY RULE
OUT TORNADO PRODUCTION WITH ANY SUPERCELLS TAPPING INTO SURFACE-
BASED INSTABILITY. GIVEN THAT ASSESSMENT WE WILL FOCUS ON WIND AND
HAIL RISKS IN THE HWO THROUGH TOMORROW WHILE ALSO MENTIONING
LOCALIZED FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL.

AFTER TOMORROW THE BAROCLINIC ZONE FOCUSING CONVECTION IN THE SHORT
TERM SHOULD SET UP FURTHER TO THE NORTHEAST FOR SATURDAY INTO MIDDAY
SUNDAY....WHICH SHOULD ALLOW OUR REGION TO CONTINUE TO BE VERY WARM
WITH MUCH SMALLER POPS AND RISKS OF STORMS THROUGH THAT TIME PERIOD.
BUT BY LATER SUNDAY MODEL CONSENSUS IS COMING AROUND TO THE IDEA OF
A FRONT PRODUCING SHOWERS AND SOME STORMS OOZING INTO THE ARKLAMISS
DELTA. THIS WILL JUST PROCEED A POTENT LOOKING SOUTHERN STREAM
DISTURBANCE SET TO PLOW THROUGH THE REGION LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MIDDAY TO EARLY AFTERNOON MONDAY. OF COURSE WITH ALL THE WARMTH AND
INSTABILITY EXPECTED TO BE IN PLACE AND NEARBY BAROCLINITY IN
ADVANCE OF THE DISTURBANCE...ANTICIPATE IMPRESSIVE LIFT AND
THUNDERSTORM PRODUCTION WITH THE SYSTEM PASSAGE. CONFIDENCE IN
SEVERE STORMS IS CURRENTLY BEST IN WESTERN ZONES BECAUSE THERE IS
SOME POTENTIAL THE DYNAMICS OF SYSTEMS COULD WEAKEN AS IT
TRANSITIONS THROUGH THE AREA. FOR THAT REASON WE INTRODUCED SEVERE
RISK IN THE HWO FOR WESTERN AREAS WITH THIS PACKAGE ALTHOUGH MAY
WELL HAVE TO EXPAND COVERAGE WITH LATER OUTLOOKS. FORTUNATELY...THE
SYSTEM AND ITS STORMS LOOK TO PASS THROUGH QUICKLY SO THE ADDITIONAL
HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT WILL NOT BE AS HIGH AS IT COULD OTHERWISE BE.
/BB/

&&

.AVIATION...CONDITIONS CURRENT RANGE FROM VFR ACROSS MUCH OF THE
REGION TO MVFR ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE DELTA WHERE LOW CLOUDS PERSIST
AND IN THE PINE BELT WHERE SCT TSRA ARE ONGOING. CIGS WILL LIKELY
DETERIORATE AT ALL LOCATIONS TONIGHT INTO IFR/LIFR RANGE AS LOW
STRATUS REDEVELOP. THESE STRATUS MAY BE SLOW TO LIFT THROUGH THE
MORNING ON CHRISTMAS DAY. SCATTERED TSRA/SHRA OVER SE MS THIS
AFTERNOON WILL LIFT INTO AREAS NORTH OF I-20 TONIGHT AND REMAIN
POSSIBLE INTO CHRISTMAS DAY. A FEW OF THESE STORMS MAY BE STRONG TO
SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS THE MAIN THREATS.
/DL/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       69  80  68  80 /  42  45  37  20
MERIDIAN      69  79  68  78 /  66  37  27  24
VICKSBURG     70  79  66  81 /  41  54  47  20
HATTIESBURG   69  81  68  79 /  52  31  22  25
NATCHEZ       71  79  69  80 /  35  42  35  18
GREENVILLE    66  75  66  79 /  70  76  60  31
GREENWOOD     68  77  68  80 /  60  78  54  27

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

BB/DL

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
407 PM CST THU DEC 24 2015

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-MSZ018-019-025>042-252215-
ASHLEY-CHICOT-MOREHOUSE-WEST CARROLL-EAST CARROLL-BOLIVAR-
SUNFLOWER-LEFLORE-GRENADA-CARROLL-MONTGOMERY-WEBSTER-CLAY-LOWNDES-
CHOCTAW-OKTIBBEHA-WASHINGTON-HUMPHREYS-HOLMES-ATTALA-WINSTON-
NOXUBEE-ISSAQUENA-SHARKEY-YAZOO-
407 PM CST THU DEC 24 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
ARKANSAS...NORTHEAST LOUISIANA...CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...AND NORTH
CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND FRIDAY

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THREAT...LIMITED
TIMING...THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY

FLOODING
THREAT...LIMITED
TIMING...THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY

SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON. THE MAIN THREATS WITH ANY SEVERE STORMS
WILL BE HAIL TO THE SIZE OF QUARTERS AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS, BUT A
TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT. IN ADDITION, HEAVY RAINFALL COULD RESULT
IN LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING.

(WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/GRAPHICAST.PHP?SITE=JAN&GC=1)
(WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/GRAPHICAST.PHP?SITE=JAN&GC=3)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY, SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE ARKLAMISS DELTA. AT THIS TIME, DAMAGING WIND GUSTS APPEAR TO BE
THE PRIMARY THREAT. HOWEVER, TIMING AND STORM THREAT DETAILS ARE
STILL UNCERTAIN, SO KEEP CHECKING BACK FOR ADDITIONAL UPDATES.

(WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/GRAPHICAST.PHP?SITE=JAN&GC=2)

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE REGION REMAINDER
OF THE AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY.

LAZ015-016-023>026-252215-
RICHLAND-MADISON LA-FRANKLIN LA-CATAHOULA-TENSAS-CONCORDIA-
407 PM CST THU DEC 24 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST
LOUISIANA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND FRIDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY, SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER
NORTHEAST LOUISIANA AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI. AT
THIS TIME, DAMAGING WIND GUSTS APPEAR TO BE THE PRIMARY THREAT.
HOWEVER, TIMING AND STORM THREAT DETAILS ARE STILL UNCERTAIN, SO KEEP
CHECKING BACK FOR ADDITIONAL UPDATES.

(WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/GRAPHICAST.PHP?SITE=JAN&GC=2)

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE REGION SUNDAY
NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.

MSZ043>066-072>074-252215-
MADISON MS-LEAKE-NESHOBA-KEMPER-WARREN-HINDS-RANKIN-SCOTT-NEWTON-
LAUDERDALE-CLAIBORNE-COPIAH-SIMPSON-SMITH-JASPER-CLARKE-JEFFERSON-
ADAMS-FRANKLIN MS-LINCOLN-LAWRENCE-JEFFERSON DAVIS-COVINGTON-
JONES-MARION-LAMAR-FORREST-
407 PM CST THU DEC 24 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
MISSISSIPPI...AND SOUTH CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND FRIDAY

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THREAT...LIMITED
TIMING...THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON

FLOODING
THREAT...LIMITED
TIMING...THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON

SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
AREA UNTIL EARLY THIS EVENING. THE MAIN THREATS WITH ANY SEVERE
STORMS WILL BE HAIL TO THE SIZE OF QUARTERS AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS,
BUT A TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT. IN ADDITION, HEAVY RAINFALL COULD
RESULT IN LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING.

(WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/GRAPHICAST.PHP?SITE=JAN&GC=3)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY, SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER
NORTHEAST LOUISIANA AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI. AT
THIS TIME, DAMAGING WIND GUSTS APPEAR TO BE THE PRIMARY THREAT.
HOWEVER, TIMING AND STORM THREAT DETAILS ARE STILL UNCERTAIN, SO KEEP
CHECKING BACK FOR ADDITIONAL UPDATES.

(WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/GRAPHICAST.PHP?SITE=JAN&GC=2)

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE REGION REMAINDER
OF THE AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.

50

&&

...HAZARD LEGEND...

*SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS*
EXTREME...CONFIDENT IN SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH WIND GUSTS OF
 75 MPH OR GREATER AND/OR 2 INCH DIAMETER OR LARGER HAIL.
SIGNIFICANT...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE WITH WIND GUSTS OF
 75 MPH OR GREATER AND/OR 2 INCH DIAMETER OR LARGER HAIL.
ELEVATED...CONFIDENT IN SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH WINDS GUSTS OF
 60 MPH OR GREATER AND/OR 1 INCH DIAMETER OR LARGER HAIL.
LIMITED...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE WITH WIND GUSTS OF 60
 MPH OR GREATER AND/OR 1 INCH DIAMETER OR LARGER HAIL.

*FLOODING*
EXTREME...CONFIDENT IN SIGNIFICANT FLOODING.
SIGNIFICANT...SIGNIFICANT FLOODING POSSIBLE.
ELEVATED...CONFIDENT IN FLOODING.
LIMITED...FLOODING POSSIBLE.

...USEFUL WEATHER WEB PAGES (URLS)...

NWS JAN HOME PAGE...
   WWW.WEATHER.GOV/JAN
STAY AWARE, STAY SAFE NWS JAN BRIEFING PAGE...
   WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAN/?N=SAFE
FIND NWS JAN ON FACEBOOK...
   WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSJACKSONMS
FOLLOW NWS JAN ON TWITTER...
   @NWSJACKSONMS

...ADDITIONAL URLS FOR SEVERE WEATHER ISSUES...

STORM PREDICTION CENTER (SPC)...
   WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/
SPC...MESO ANALYSIS...
   WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/EXPER/MESOANALYSIS/NEW/#
SPC...DAY 1 THROUGH 3 OUTLOOKS...
   WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/PRODUCTS/OUTLOOK/
SPC...STORM REPORTS...
   WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/CLIMO/
NWS JAN CURRENT SVR/TOR WATCHES...
   WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/RTIMAGES/JAN/WATCH/TOASVA.PNG

   PLEASE CONVERT ALL WEB ADDRESSES TO LOWER CASE BEFORE ENTERING!

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
514 PM CST THU DEC 24 2015

MSZ062-063-242345-
LINCOLN MS-LAWRENCE MS-
514 PM CST THU DEC 24 2015

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT WEST CENTRAL LAWRENCE AND
EASTERN LINCOLN COUNTIES UNTIL 545 PM CST...

AT 514 PM CST...METEOROLOGISTS WERE TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM
NEAR ENTERPRISE...OR 7 MILES SOUTHEAST OF BROOKHAVEN...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

THIS STORM WILL REMAIN OVER MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF WEST CENTRAL
LAWRENCE AND EASTERN LINCOLN COUNTIES.

LAT...LON 3139 9034 3151 9049 3170 9036 3148 9016
TIME...MOT...LOC 2314Z 224DEG 16KT 3151 9036

17

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
520 PM CST THU DEC 24 2015

MSZ043-048-242345-
MADISON MS-HINDS MS-
520 PM CST THU DEC 24 2015

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHWESTERN MADISON AND
NORTHEASTERN HINDS COUNTIES UNTIL 545 PM CST...

AT 519 PM CST...METEOROLOGISTS WERE TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM
NEAR CLINTON...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

THIS STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  RIDGELAND AND POCAHONTAS AROUND 530 PM CST.
  MADISON AROUND 535 PM CST.
  FLORA AND ANNANDALE AROUND 540 PM CST.
  GLUCKSTADT AROUND 545 PM CST.

LAT...LON 3235 9041 3257 9036 3250 8995 3249 8996
      3250 8998 3248 8999 3248 9002 3244 9004
      3244 9007 3242 9006 3242 9007 3240 9007
      3238 9009 3239 9009 3230 9019
TIME...MOT...LOC 2319Z 205DEG 30KT 3237 9028

17

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
522 PM CST THU DEC 24 2015

MSZ065-066-242345-
COVINGTON MS-JONES MS-
522 PM CST THU DEC 24 2015

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT EASTERN COVINGTON AND WEST
CENTRAL JONES COUNTIES UNTIL 545 PM CST...

AT 522 PM CST...METEOROLOGISTS WERE TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM
NEAR SANFORD...OR 7 MILES SOUTHEAST OF COLLINS...MOVING NORTHEAST AT
35 MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

THIS STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  HEBRON AROUND 540 PM CST.

OTHER LOCATIONS IMPACTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE SEMINARY.

LAT...LON 3159 8959 3180 8945 3180 8942 3163 8913
      3146 8945
TIME...MOT...LOC 2322Z 228DEG 30KT 3158 8945

17

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
524 PM CST THU DEC 24 2015

MSZ054-062-063-250000-
LINCOLN MS-LAWRENCE MS-COPIAH MS-
524 PM CST THU DEC 24 2015

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHEASTERN COPIAH...NORTHERN
LAWRENCE AND NORTHEASTERN LINCOLN COUNTIES UNTIL 600 PM CST...

AT 523 PM CST...METEOROLOGISTS WERE TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM
NEAR EAST LINCOLN...OR 9 MILES EAST OF BROOKHAVEN...MOVING NORTHEAST
AT 35 MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

THIS STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  MONTICELLO AROUND 535 PM CST.
  SONTAG AROUND 540 PM CST.
  WANILLA AROUND 545 PM CST.
  OMA AROUND 550 PM CST.

LAT...LON 3147 9017 3169 9036 3184 9022 3156 8998
TIME...MOT...LOC 2323Z 228DEG 30KT 3156 9029

17